Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[KFDM Meteorologist]

UK and most models have landfall near SE LA. Radar would show farther east looking at it tonight.

[WeatherNole]

Our radar showing what looks like the LLC now about 68 miles SSW of Apalachicola. However, it also looks like the movement to be about 330. This also agrees with the newest run of our in-house WRF model, which NOW brings the center right up into Apalachee Bay by 12Z. Boy, if that verifies, there is going to be a LOT of model bashing tomorrow.

Mike

--

[Steve]

>>Our radar showing what looks like the LLC now about 68 miles SSW of Apalachicola. However, it also looks like the movement to be about 330. This also agrees with the newest run of our in-house WRF model, which NOW brings the center right up into Apalachee Bay by 12Z. Boy, if that verifies, there is going to be a LOT of model bashing tomorrow.

Well that center probably would seem to want to come ashore. But I wonder if the broader low is being handled differently. We'll see I guess.

[Wx_Warrior]

This storm proved just about everyone wrong earlier this week. Wx wins every time!

[southerngale]

00Z ECMWF

[Wx_Warrior]

skirts the entire coast....goodness

[Nimbus]

The surface pressure is broad so we have something to be thankful for. Looks like the rapid NNW motion has stopped and 93L is moving slower maybe WNW. Lowest surface pressure I could find was near buoy 42039.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

The wind has shifted from NE to NNE but the storm center must still be south of this location obviously. With the slower motion 93L still has some time to pick up moisture before the entire circulation gets over land so it may not be a nothing storm. The further west it gets the more the ridge builds so at least part of it may stay over water all the way to Texas.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0649 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070921 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070921 0600 070921 1800 070922 0600 070922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.1N 84.9W 29.4N 86.0W 30.4N 87.3W 31.3N 89.0W
BAMD 28.1N 84.9W 29.0N 86.0W 30.0N 87.2W 30.6N 88.7W
BAMM 28.1N 84.9W 29.1N 86.1W 29.9N 87.2W 30.6N 88.9W
LBAR 28.1N 84.9W 29.0N 85.7W 30.2N 86.6W 31.5N 87.6W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070923 0600 070924 0600 070925 0600 070926 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.2N 91.4W 36.5N 95.2W 41.7N 92.1W 42.9N 83.5W
BAMD 31.6N 91.0W 36.1N 96.1W 44.1N 93.1W 51.5N 71.5W
BAMM 31.6N 91.2W 35.6N 95.7W 42.0N 92.6W 46.9N 78.0W
LBAR 32.5N 88.6W 35.2N 89.9W 38.9N 87.8W 45.7N 75.1W
SHIP 52KTS 55KTS 51KTS 33KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.1N LONCUR = 84.9W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 26.9N LONM12 = 84.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 27.5N LONM24 = 83.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[PhillyWX]

This storm proved just about everyone wrong earlier this week. Wx wins every time!

Even JB with his Texas call.

That's why when one can't model hug and rely upon model guidance alone and that's why they pay meteorologists the big bucks to figure out where these storms end up.

[Sabanic]

Sure looks like the coast from the Panhandle all the way over to MS/LA will get brushed good, if not worse with whatever it ends up being

[HollynLA]

Sure looks like the coast from the Panhandle all the way over to MS/LA will get brushed good, if not worse with whatever it ends up being

Yep, it looks like the entire northern gulf coast is about to get heavy rains and windy conditions (nothing to bad, just a little above normal) while 93 decided where it will eventually land (I think somewhere between Southeast LA and MS.)

[Johnny]

I guess that's the question now. What's this storm gonna do once inland? I coast hugger would be pretty interesting.

[HURAKAN]

608
WHXX01 KWBC 211222
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1222 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070921 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070921 1200 070922 0000 070922 1200 070923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 85.3W 30.1N 86.4W 31.2N 87.9W 32.1N 89.8W
BAMD 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.4W 30.8N 87.6W 31.6N 89.4W
BAMM 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.4W 30.9N 87.7W 31.8N 89.5W
LBAR 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.2W 31.2N 87.0W 32.3N 87.5W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 1200 070925 1200 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 92.0W 38.7N 94.5W 42.7N 89.3W 43.7N 80.5W
BAMD 33.0N 91.7W 38.9N 95.0W 47.5N 86.7W 51.7N 59.4W
BAMM 33.2N 91.8W 38.6N 94.8W 45.1N 87.4W 47.9N 70.8W
LBAR 33.5N 87.7W 36.2N 88.1W 39.5N 85.1W 43.6N 73.5W
SHIP 51KTS 53KTS 46KTS 33KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.7N LONCUR = 85.3W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 84.3W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 27.4N LONM24 = 83.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

640
WHXX01 KWBC 211414
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1414 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TEN (AL102007) 20070921 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070921 1200 070922 0000 070922 1200 070923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 85.3W 30.1N 86.4W 31.2N 87.9W 32.1N 89.8W
BAMD 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.4W 30.8N 87.6W 31.6N 89.4W
BAMM 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.4W 30.9N 87.7W 31.8N 89.5W
LBAR 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.2W 31.2N 87.0W 32.3N 87.5W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 1200 070925 1200 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 92.0W 38.7N 94.5W 42.7N 89.3W 43.7N 80.5W
BAMD 33.0N 91.7W 38.9N 95.0W 47.5N 86.7W 51.7N 59.4W
BAMM 33.2N 91.8W 38.6N 94.8W 45.1N 87.4W 47.9N 70.8W
LBAR 33.5N 87.7W 36.2N 88.1W 39.5N 85.1W 43.6N 73.5W
SHIP 51KTS 53KTS 46KTS 33KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.7N LONCUR = 85.3W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 84.3W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 27.4N LONM24 = 83.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Stratosphere747]

GFS really slows 93L down and keeps is along the coastal areas, just inland. Of continuing interest is the GFS has been consistently been showing the Caribbean system for a few days now and not dropping it.

36hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

[Thunder44]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN (AL102007) 20070921 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070921 1800 070922 0600 070922 1800 070923 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.7N 86.1W 30.7N 87.6W 31.6N 89.3W 32.6N 91.5W
BAMD 29.7N 86.1W 30.5N 87.5W 31.1N 89.4W 32.0N 91.8W
BAMM 29.7N 86.1W 30.6N 87.5W 31.3N 89.3W 32.3N 91.5W
LBAR 29.7N 86.1W 30.6N 87.2W 31.4N 88.3W 32.2N 89.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070923 1800 070924 1800 070925 1800 070926 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.4N 93.6W 40.1N 94.0W 43.1N 83.9W 43.7N 72.6W
BAMD 34.0N 94.7W 41.2N 94.6W 48.9N 75.8W 51.9N 46.7W
BAMM 34.1N 94.0W 40.4N 94.4W 46.0N 79.6W 46.9N 55.7W
LBAR 33.3N 90.8W 36.7N 92.2W 40.3N 85.8W 45.6N 70.2W
SHIP 44KTS 47KTS 38KTS 30KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.7N LONCUR = 86.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 28.3N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 26.9N LONM24 = 84.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

18z models still keep it as a TD with winds of 30kts

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[storms in NC]

This storm proved just about everyone wrong earlier this week. Wx wins every time!

Even JB with his Texas call.

That's why when one can't model hug and rely upon model guidance alone and that's why they pay meteorologists the big bucks to figure out where these storms end up.

Hey JB does get big bucks. But is wrong LOL.

And to who are you speaking of Wx? too many Wx's

[Ixolib]

And to who are you speaking of Wx? too many Wx's

I think he means "WEATHER", as in "Weather wins every time!"

While I realize almost everyone here recognizes its use - especially the two "WXs" in this post!! - there may be some who would like a little background on the abbreviation WX:

WX is the telegraph abbreviation for weather. It was also used for the same purpose in Morse Code. Its use still continues as written shorthand especially within the weather fraternity, among the aviation and maritime communities, and by Amateur and Military Radio Operators. In fact, the NOAA Weather Radio channels are numbered WX01 through WX10.