Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072s.gif

72 Hrs..2nd on to LA too!

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078s.gif

78hrs..This one looks Sheared..All Precip to the east side..

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090s.gif

90 Hrs..GFS slate is clean...

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126s.gif

126hrs..Nothing of signif here but that is one mountian of a high in the atlantic..better hope nothing gets going out east of FL..

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_072s.gif

72 Hrs..2nd on to LA too!

I think that may be a wee bit fast. 72 hours from the Hounduras/Nicurauga area to LA??????

I doubt that too much. That seems too fast personally, but I see that developing though.

[Ivanhater]

12 Z NOGAPS OUT TO 24 HR...further north

[Ivanhater]

36 HR NOGAPS..another shift east of its 00z run...in line with the other globals

[Ivanhater]

48 hr NOGAPS

[niner21]

GO NOGAPS!!! ITS YOUR BIRTHDAY!!!


Yay, might have good weather here in Houston this weekend afterall.

[skysummit]

The 12z Canadian brings it toward the Mobile area.


....where are all the Texas posters?

[DESTRUCTION5]

The 12z Canadian brings it toward the Mobile area.


....where are all the Texas posters?

LOL..They have gone into Lurking mode..

[gboudx]

The 12z Canadian brings it toward the Mobile area.


....where are all the Texas posters?

LOL..They have gone into Lurking mode..

I think EWG mostly posts in the afternoons. That's been my take on his posting habits lately. I'm sure he'll be around later.

[Agua]

Southerngale made a great point to me one time when I assumed wishcasting due to the absence of comments from State A members following Model X abandonment of State A to join the other models in a State B landfall. She said that people in State A (Texas in this instance) lose interest because it doesn't affect them, so its not fair to assume those who appeared to be clinging to the last outlier were wishcasting.

[skysummit]

12z GFDL looks like Mississippi unless I plotted it wrong....



978
WHXX04 KWBC 201725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 83.5 270./ 2.9
6 26.8 83.9 270./ 3.7
12 27.2 84.5 308./ 6.1
18 27.7 85.1 307./ 7.5
24 28.2 85.6 316./ 6.5
30 28.6 85.9 321./ 5.1
36 29.5 86.5 327./ 9.8
42 29.9 87.5 294./ 9.6
48 30.6 88.4 304./10.5
54 31.0 89.9 287./13.4
60 31.2 91.5 277./14.2
66 31.6 93.1 286./13.7
72 32.6 94.4 304./14.7
78 33.7 95.7 311./15.3
84 35.0 96.3 334./14.3
90 36.3 96.4 357./12.7
96 37.7 95.7 26./15.1
102 38.9 94.1 53./17.7
108 40.2 91.0 67./26.9
114 41.6 87.7 67./28.6
120 43.2 83.2 70./36.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[skysummit]

Yup, I plotted it wrong....Mobile Bay:

12z GFDL looks like Mississippi unless I plotted it wrong....



978
WHXX04 KWBC 201725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 83.5 270./ 2.9
6 26.8 83.9 270./ 3.7
12 27.2 84.5 308./ 6.1
18 27.7 85.1 307./ 7.5
24 28.2 85.6 316./ 6.5
30 28.6 85.9 321./ 5.1
36 29.5 86.5 327./ 9.8
42 29.9 87.5 294./ 9.6
48 30.6 88.4 304./10.5
54 31.0 89.9 287./13.4
60 31.2 91.5 277./14.2
66 31.6 93.1 286./13.7
72 32.6 94.4 304./14.7
78 33.7 95.7 311./15.3
84 35.0 96.3 334./14.3
90 36.3 96.4 357./12.7
96 37.7 95.7 26./15.1
102 38.9 94.1 53./17.7
108 40.2 91.0 67./26.9
114 41.6 87.7 67./28.6
120 43.2 83.2 70./36.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Sabanic]

12z GFDL looks like Mississippi unless I plotted it wrong....



978
WHXX04 KWBC 201725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 83.5 270./ 2.9
6 26.8 83.9 270./ 3.7
12 27.2 84.5 308./ 6.1
18 27.7 85.1 307./ 7.5
24 28.2 85.6 316./ 6.5
30 28.6 85.9 321./ 5.1
36 29.5 86.5 327./ 9.8
42 29.9 87.5 294./ 9.6
48 30.6 88.4 304./10.5
54 31.0 89.9 287./13.4
60 31.2 91.5 277./14.2
66 31.6 93.1 286./13.7
72 32.6 94.4 304./14.7
78 33.7 95.7 311./15.3
84 35.0 96.3 334./14.3
90 36.3 96.4 357./12.7
96 37.7 95.7 26./15.1
102 38.9 94.1 53./17.7
108 40.2 91.0 67./26.9
114 41.6 87.7 67./28.6
120 43.2 83.2 70./36.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

That would put whatever it is in my backyard Saturday afternoon. We don't need anything to mess up electricity with Bama playing on ESPN at 6:45

[Wx_Warrior]

IM HERE!!! Had to get some sleep...

I dont want anything so dont put this texas guy in that pot!

Bring on the racing form!

[k4sdi]

Southerngale made a great point to me one time when I assumed wishcasting due to the absence of comments from State A members following Model X abandonment of State A to join the other models in a State B landfall. She said that people in State A (Texas in this instance) lose interest because it doesn't affect them, so its not fair to assume those who appeared to be clinging to the last outlier were wishcasting.

<Shakes head in confusion>

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFDL looks like Mississippi unless I plotted it wrong....



978
WHXX04 KWBC 201725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 83.5 270./ 2.9
6 26.8 83.9 270./ 3.7
12 27.2 84.5 308./ 6.1
18 27.7 85.1 307./ 7.5
24 28.2 85.6 316./ 6.5
30 28.6 85.9 321./ 5.1
36 29.5 86.5 327./ 9.8
42 29.9 87.5 294./ 9.6
48 30.6 88.4 304./10.5
54 31.0 89.9 287./13.4
60 31.2 91.5 277./14.2
66 31.6 93.1 286./13.7
72 32.6 94.4 304./14.7
78 33.7 95.7 311./15.3
84 35.0 96.3 334./14.3
90 36.3 96.4 357./12.7
96 37.7 95.7 26./15.1
102 38.9 94.1 53./17.7
108 40.2 91.0 67./26.9
114 41.6 87.7 67./28.6
120 43.2 83.2 70./36.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

That would put whatever it is in my backyard Saturday afternoon. We don't need anything to mess up electricity with Bama playing on ESPN at 6:45

I hear ya Sabanic, ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!

[Brent]

12z GFDL looks like Mississippi unless I plotted it wrong....



978
WHXX04 KWBC 201725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 83.5 270./ 2.9
6 26.8 83.9 270./ 3.7
12 27.2 84.5 308./ 6.1
18 27.7 85.1 307./ 7.5
24 28.2 85.6 316./ 6.5
30 28.6 85.9 321./ 5.1
36 29.5 86.5 327./ 9.8
42 29.9 87.5 294./ 9.6
48 30.6 88.4 304./10.5
54 31.0 89.9 287./13.4
60 31.2 91.5 277./14.2
66 31.6 93.1 286./13.7
72 32.6 94.4 304./14.7
78 33.7 95.7 311./15.3
84 35.0 96.3 334./14.3
90 36.3 96.4 357./12.7
96 37.7 95.7 26./15.1
102 38.9 94.1 53./17.7
108 40.2 91.0 67./26.9
114 41.6 87.7 67./28.6
120 43.2 83.2 70./36.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

That would put whatever it is in my backyard Saturday afternoon. We don't need anything to mess up electricity with Bama playing on ESPN at 6:45

I hear ya Sabanic, ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!

I'm actually proud to be a Bama fan for a change.