Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[jasons2k]

Model runs here.

[jhamps10]

25.8N 79.2W

064
WHXX01 KWBC 181600
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1600 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070918 1200 070919 0000 070919 1200 070920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 79.2W 26.0N 80.8W 26.2N 82.5W 26.3N 83.9W
BAMD 25.8N 79.2W 26.2N 80.0W 26.8N 81.0W 27.5N 82.2W
BAMM 25.8N 79.2W 26.0N 80.6W 26.2N 81.9W 26.4N 83.3W
LBAR 25.8N 79.2W 26.2N 80.3W 27.1N 81.5W 28.2N 82.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070920 1200 070921 1200 070922 1200 070923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.4N 85.3W 26.9N 87.9W 28.0N 91.0W 29.9N 94.3W
BAMD 28.0N 83.6W 28.7N 86.8W 29.6N 90.5W 31.7N 95.0W
BAMM 26.6N 84.6W 27.0N 87.5W 27.8N 90.7W 29.5N 94.2W
LBAR 29.6N 83.3W 31.7N 84.3W 32.8N 85.5W 33.7N 86.5W
SHIP 50KTS 67KTS 76KTS 80KTS
DSHP 45KTS 61KTS 70KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 79.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 78.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 24.5N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[miamicanes177]

The big key in the 12z run of the GFS is that it has 93L making landfall in LA by Sunday before the strong increase in shear arrives. The GFS has been showing 50kts of shear arriving to the Western GOM and tearing up the storm before hitting Texas. If it can slip into a LA, MS, AL landfall it will have a more favorable environment before shear picks up again. A window for development per the 12z run.

[TampaFl]

From SFWMD:

[chadtm80]

25.8N 79.2W

064
WHXX01 KWBC 181600
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1600 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070918 1200 070919 0000 070919 1200 070920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 79.2W 26.0N 80.8W 26.2N 82.5W 26.3N 83.9W
BAMD 25.8N 79.2W 26.2N 80.0W 26.8N 81.0W 27.5N 82.2W
BAMM 25.8N 79.2W 26.0N 80.6W 26.2N 81.9W 26.4N 83.3W
LBAR 25.8N 79.2W 26.2N 80.3W 27.1N 81.5W 28.2N 82.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070920 1200 070921 1200 070922 1200 070923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.4N 85.3W 26.9N 87.9W 28.0N 91.0W 29.9N 94.3W
BAMD 28.0N 83.6W 28.7N 86.8W 29.6N 90.5W 31.7N 95.0W
BAMM 26.6N 84.6W 27.0N 87.5W 27.8N 90.7W 29.5N 94.2W
LBAR 29.6N 83.3W 31.7N 84.3W 32.8N 85.5W 33.7N 86.5W
SHIP 50KTS 67KTS 76KTS 80KTS
DSHP 45KTS 61KTS 70KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 79.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 78.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 24.5N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

Look at the track this model takes 93L.

[Derek Ortt]

and the canadian loops Ingrid back around, rapidly intensifies it, and shoves it toward Miami

As much as I love the Canadian, next model please

[jdray]

12z CMC

Look at the track this model takes 93L.

CMC has been consistent in saying this thing is heading to NE Florida/SE GA for a few runs now.

I'm keeping my eye on this mess. It does remind me of Tammy 2005 for some strange reason.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 181726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.5 79.0 285./ 6.0
6 25.4 79.0 160./ 1.2
12 25.0 79.1 200./ 3.5
18 25.8 79.0 10./ 7.6
24 27.3 79.4 343./15.6
30 27.6 80.6 286./10.7
36 27.6 81.8 268./10.6
42 27.3 83.1 257./12.5
48 27.4 83.8 281./ 6.2
54 27.6 84.7 285./ 7.8
60 27.7 85.3 274./ 5.8
66 28.0 86.4 288./10.3
72 28.2 87.3 282./ 8.0
78 28.6 88.0 299./ 7.1
84 29.1 89.0 297./10.2
90 29.6 90.1 295./11.2
96 30.6 91.7 299./16.9
102 30.9 92.9 285./10.2
108 31.8 93.9 311./13.0
114 33.0 95.3 311./16.2
120 34.3 96.1 329./14.6
126 35.9 96.1 1./16.5


12z GFDL landfall at Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 25.8N 84.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 20.09.2007 25.8N 84.2W WEAK

00UTC 21.09.2007 25.9N 84.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.09.2007 26.8N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2007 26.7N 86.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2007 27.8N 88.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.09.2007 28.6N 90.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2007 29.8N 92.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.09/2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


12z UKMET landfall at Louisiana.

[Ivanhater]

[flwxwatcher]

12Z UKMET

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[fci]

and the canadian loops Ingrid back around, rapidly intensifies it, and shoves it toward Miami

As much as I love the Canadian, next model please

Oh, I wish you had not said that Derek!
Now the troops that have been dreaming of a resurrected Ingrid will be all over this.....

[flwxwatcher]

12Z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007091812

[Nimbus]

The GFDL looks as though they have 93l coming together a little further south near Nassau. Then as the system (probably a TD by then) starts to respond to the upper level steering around the ULL it jogs back north crossing Florida mid state. The ULL was moving pretty much south rather quickly this morning a pure extrapolation would have had it out of the way in less than 24 hours.

The models are going to be sensitive to how quickly that ULL rolls south and fills. The point at which 93l becomes stacked well enough to respond to upper level winds is another consideration. The major difference in the GFDL from the other models seems to be the idea of some development prior to landfall on the east coast of Florida. The other models have a shallow surface low moving primarily WNW across the state. Its not going to be an easy forecast for a few days.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS Animation

Goes farther south than GFDL and UKMET.

[cycloneye]

12 GFDL intensity

Goes to hurricane intensity.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL is below hurricane intensity. Those are the 35m winds, not 10m

[miamicanes177]

GFDL is below hurricane intensity. Those are the 35m winds, not 10m

But look at the track. It has it barely going over the northern edge of the loop current or perhaps just missing it. For some odd reason the GFDL moves it 1.5 deg N from hours 18-24 before heading w-wnw. If you bump the GFDL track down about 2 deg to account for the weird 6 hour motion you will likely see it show a significant hurricane.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 181840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070918 1800 070919 0600 070919 1800 070920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.0N 79.0W 26.2N 80.4W 26.6N 81.6W 27.1N 82.8W
BAMD 26.0N 79.0W 26.5N 79.7W 27.3N 80.9W 28.1N 82.4W
BAMM 26.0N 79.0W 26.2N 80.2W 26.7N 81.4W 27.1N 82.6W
LBAR 26.0N 79.0W 26.3N 79.6W 27.2N 80.5W 28.5N 81.2W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070920 1800 070921 1800 070922 1800 070923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.7N 83.9W 29.3N 86.5W 31.1N 89.6W 33.3N 93.2W
BAMD 28.8N 83.9W 30.0N 87.1W 31.1N 90.8W 33.3N 95.5W
BAMM 27.7N 83.9W 29.1N 86.6W 30.6N 89.7W 32.8N 93.7W
LBAR 30.0N 81.4W 32.6N 82.2W 33.6N 81.2W 32.8N 80.0W
SHIP 62KTS 76KTS 80KTS 79KTS
DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 47KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.0N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 25.5N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 24.9N LONM24 = 77.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Is crawling.DSHP goes up to 55kts before GOM landfall.