Tropical Depression TEN: Advisories=Last Advisory from HPC

[HURAKAN]

023
WTNT25 KNHC 211453
TCMAT5
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.7N 86.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.1N 88.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.6N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 31.5N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

141
WTNT35 KNHC 211454
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

554
WTNT45 KNHC 211503
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL
CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL
AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.

THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.2N 85.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.7N 86.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 30.1N 88.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 30.6N 90.3W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1200Z 31.5N 93.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

539
WTNT35 KNHC 211746
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
2100 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 86.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 86.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.3N 87.6W...NEAR COASTLINE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 86.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...100 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...29.9 N...86.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

THE BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS LARGELY
DISSIPATED...WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS INCREASED...
ALBEIT MODESTLY. ADDITIONAL SATELLITE...BUOY...AND RECONNAISSANCE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT A SINGLE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXISTS. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS SEPARATING FROM THE UPPER-LOW.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW JUDGED TO BE
TROPICAL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY TODAY.
EARLIER FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
SUGGESTED WINDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALTHOUGH
DROPSONDES IN THE BAND DID NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH WIND. IN ANY
EVENT...THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT.

BASED ON TODAY'S AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/8. THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH THE
DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A
LANDFALL LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. AFTER LANDFALL...AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION NOW IS LIGHT EASTERLY BUT NOT
VERY DIFLUENT. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE CORE AND LIMITED
UPPER-AIR SUPPORT...IT WOULD NOT SEEM AS THOUGH MUCH
INTENSIFICATION IS IN ORDER PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM. IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER THAN
FORECAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.9N 86.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 30.3N 87.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 31.5N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

739
WTNT35 KNHC 212348
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COMING ONSHORE...DID NOT STRENGTHEN...

AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
ALMOST ONSHORE NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST...
NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION FARTHER INLAND.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...IN A FEW SQUALLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...30.4 N...86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 87.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 87.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.0N 88.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 90.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 87.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT.

$$

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...SHORT-LIVED DEPRESSION WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
10 MILES ... 15 KM...NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK
THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER LAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...30.6 N...87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA




047
WTNT45 KNHC 220219
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

DATA FROM RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION MOVED INLAND NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA AROUND
0000 UTC TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT STRONGER THAN 25 KNOTS
AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8
KNOTS. IT WILL PROBABLY TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 30.6N 87.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 31.0N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 23/0000Z 31.0N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT34 KWNH 220842
TCPAT4

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 4 FOR REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL102007
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007

...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST...

AT 400 AM CDT...09Z...THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10 WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA NEAR 30.9N
88.2W.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 15 MPH...OR 13 KT..24 KM/HR WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB...OR 29.77
INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

...FLORIDA...

CRESTVIEW.....................2.83
APALACHICOLA..................2.39
VALPARAISO....................1.52
PANAMA CITY...................0.63
TALLAHASSEE...................0.62

...ALABAMA...

DOTHAN........................0.51
EVERGREEN.....................0.36

...GEORGIA...

ALBANY........................1.46
VALDOSTA......................1.23


THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO LOUISIANA TODAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN END OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS
UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...30.9 NORTH...88.2 WEST...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

HEDGE

FORECAST POSITION

INITIAL 22/0900Z 30.9N 88.2W..DISSIPATING