INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico: Global & BAM Models

[Opal storm]

Looks like a caribbean tracker. The big question is..when will this turn? The GFS isn't showing any big fronts anytime soon, so a GOM threat seems very possible. Climatology would suggest more of a threat to the eastern GOM once it got there, but as mets have been saying..the current pattern is much more similar to late August/early September and is not following climatology. Therefore, I could see a potential risk to areas further west also being possible with 97L. Time will tell. One thing is for sure though, this should be a very interesting system to watch!

Both Mobile and New Orleans AFD have a front coming down towards the end of this week. Not sure if they will be that strong though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a caribbean tracker. The big question is..when will this turn? The GFS isn't showing any big fronts anytime soon, so a GOM threat seems very possible. Climatology would suggest more of a threat to the eastern GOM once it got there, but as mets have been saying..the current pattern is much more similar to late August/early September and is not following climatology. Therefore, I could see a potential risk to areas further west also being possible with 97L. Time will tell. One thing is for sure though, this should be a very interesting system to watch!

Both Mobile and New Orleans AFD have a front coming down towards the end of this week. Not sure if they will be that strong though.

Currently it is forecast to come down, reach the northern GOM and then shear out. Shouldn't be too strong. ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif ). The ridge is then expected to build back in by next weekend: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

[Blown Away]

IF 97L develops, I doubt it will make it past 85W at the most given it's late September.

[Extremeweatherguy]

IF 97L develops, I doubt it will make it past 85W at the most given it's late September.

It may be late September on the calendar, but in the atmosphere the pattern looks more like late August/early September. Remember: a hurricane doesn't know what month it is. It doesn't know it is supposed to follow climatology. All a hurricane will do is follow the upper-level steering pattern. It there are no weaknesses or fronts to turn a system NE, then it will not do so.

BTW, here are a few memorable storms (since 1970) to have made it past 85W late in the season...

Rita = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Isidore = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Lili = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Keith = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Georges = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Mitch = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Roxanne = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Kate = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Jeanne (1980) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Greta = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

As you can see, such occurances can and do happen more often than one might think.

[ROCK]

IF 97L develops, I doubt it will make it past 85W at the most given it's late September.

It may be late September on the calendar, but in the atmosphere the pattern looks more like late August/early September. Remember: a hurricane doesn't know what month it is. It doesn't know it is supposed to follow climatology. All a hurricane will do is follow the upper-level steering pattern. It there are no weaknesses or fronts to turn a system NE, then it will not do so.

BTW, here are a few memorable storms (since 1970) to have made it past 85W late in the season...

Rita = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Isidore = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Lili = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Keith = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Georges = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Mitch = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Roxanne = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Kate = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Jeanne (1980) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Greta = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

As you can see, such occurances can and do happen more often than one might think.

what about Lili?? I thought she made it past 85w....

[cycloneye]

540
WHXX04 KWBC 232324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 56.2 270./13.0
6 11.1 57.4 283./12.1
12 11.6 58.4 299./10.5
18 12.4 59.4 304./12.9
24 13.1 60.2 314./10.5
30 13.8 61.2 306./12.1
36 14.8 62.0 321./12.9
42 16.1 62.5 338./13.5
48 16.8 63.6 302./11.9
54 17.1 64.4 294./ 8.5
60 17.5 65.2 296./ 9.1
66 17.9 66.4 286./11.2
72 18.4 67.3 298./10.4
78 18.5 68.3 275./ 9.1
84 18.8 69.1 293./ 8.6
90 18.9 69.9 278./ 7.4
96 19.6 70.7 310./10.8
102 19.9 71.6 288./ 8.4
108 20.1 72.2 289./ 6.5
114 20.6 72.7 311./ 6.3
120 21.1 73.1 324./ 6.9
126 21.4 73.4 314./ 3.3


The 18z GFDL takes 97L thru the mountains of Puerto Rico and especially Hispañola,which means,land interaction will weaken it,if the system follows this model scenario.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 231853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...



WED...THE GFS SHOWS THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE GULF AND
HINTS AT A WEAK LOW FORMING...WHILE THE NAM/WRF SHOWS A MORE
DISTINCT LOW. IN ANY EVENT...WE SHOULD STAY VERY MOIST WITH THE MEX
POPS CONTINUING TO BE IN THE LIKELY RANGE. HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS
TO 50 PERCENT AS IT LOOKS LIKE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SITUATION.

THU-SUN...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THU-FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
LOCAL WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD SWITCH CONVECTION BACK TO A
DAYTIME DRIVEN REGIME AND EXPECT AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR
THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME SO WILL STAY WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR NOW.






SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KELLY
LONG TERM....LASCODY

[Extremeweatherguy]

IF 97L develops, I doubt it will make it past 85W at the most given it's late September.

It may be late September on the calendar, but in the atmosphere the pattern looks more like late August/early September. Remember: a hurricane doesn't know what month it is. It doesn't know it is supposed to follow climatology. All a hurricane will do is follow the upper-level steering pattern. It there are no weaknesses or fronts to turn a system NE, then it will not do so.

BTW, here are a few memorable storms (since 1970) to have made it past 85W late in the season...

Rita = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Isidore = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Lili = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Keith = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Georges = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Mitch = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Roxanne = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Kate = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Jeanne (1980) = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Greta = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

As you can see, such occurances can and do happen more often than one might think.

what about Lili?? I thought she made it past 85w....

Check again.. Lili is on the list.

[gatorcane]

540
WHXX04 KWBC 232324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 56.2 270./13.0
6 11.1 57.4 283./12.1
12 11.6 58.4 299./10.5
18 12.4 59.4 304./12.9
24 13.1 60.2 314./10.5
30 13.8 61.2 306./12.1
36 14.8 62.0 321./12.9
42 16.1 62.5 338./13.5
48 16.8 63.6 302./11.9
54 17.1 64.4 294./ 8.5
60 17.5 65.2 296./ 9.1
66 17.9 66.4 286./11.2
72 18.4 67.3 298./10.4
78 18.5 68.3 275./ 9.1
84 18.8 69.1 293./ 8.6
90 18.9 69.9 278./ 7.4
96 19.6 70.7 310./10.8
102 19.9 71.6 288./ 8.4
108 20.1 72.2 289./ 6.5
114 20.6 72.7 311./ 6.3
120 21.1 73.1 324./ 6.9
126 21.4 73.4 314./ 3.3


The 18z GFDL takes 97L thru the mountains of Puerto Rico and especially Hispañola,which means,land interaction will weaken it,if the system follows this model scenario.

True but if the system were to just cross over Hispaniola it would weaken temporarily but iff the ULL winds were good on the other side expect rapid strengthening. The mountains would just temporarily weaken it.

Thats why I'd like to urge people in South Florida that those islands do not fully protect us. Ernesto should NOT be used as an example as Ernesto weakened largely because of ULL winds caused by the NE periphery of big Caribbean TUTT low more than land interaction.

On the other hand, if the system were to cross Puerto Rico and Hispaniola it could really weaken the system and maybe even kill it.

[TheShrimper]

Just like it weakened Georges? Hell, I forgot to throw in the Cuban terrain as well.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 240117
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0117 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070924 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000 070925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 57.5W 12.8N 59.5W 14.3N 61.4W 15.9N 63.2W
BAMD 11.8N 57.5W 12.5N 59.2W 13.5N 61.1W 14.4N 63.1W
BAMM 11.8N 57.5W 12.6N 59.3W 13.7N 61.2W 15.0N 63.2W
LBAR 11.8N 57.5W 12.8N 59.5W 14.2N 61.6W 15.5N 63.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 0000 070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 64.8W 19.0N 68.7W 20.6N 72.7W 22.1N 75.5W
BAMD 15.3N 65.0W 16.2N 68.7W 17.1N 72.4W 18.4N 75.3W
BAMM 16.2N 64.9W 17.6N 68.7W 18.8N 72.6W 20.2N 75.3W
LBAR 16.5N 65.5W 17.6N 70.0W 19.7N 74.6W 23.2N 76.6W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 56KTS 65KTS 51KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 52.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
30 kts!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

WHXX01 KWBC 240117
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0117 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070924 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000 070925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 57.5W 12.8N 59.5W 14.3N 61.4W 15.9N 63.2W
BAMD 11.8N 57.5W 12.5N 59.2W 13.5N 61.1W 14.4N 63.1W
BAMM 11.8N 57.5W 12.6N 59.3W 13.7N 61.2W 15.0N 63.2W
LBAR 11.8N 57.5W 12.8N 59.5W 14.2N 61.6W 15.5N 63.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 0000 070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 64.8W 19.0N 68.7W 20.6N 72.7W 22.1N 75.5W
BAMD 15.3N 65.0W 16.2N 68.7W 17.1N 72.4W 18.4N 75.3W
BAMM 16.2N 64.9W 17.6N 68.7W 18.8N 72.6W 20.2N 75.3W
LBAR 16.5N 65.5W 17.6N 70.0W 19.7N 74.6W 23.2N 76.6W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 56KTS 65KTS 51KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 52.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
30 kts!

Also, the models move the system closer to PR...The BAMS is in agreement with GFDL

[gatorcane]

Yep models have shifted some to the north and are getting closer to Puerto Rico. The BAMMS and LBAR put it in the SE Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 240117
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0117 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070924 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000 070925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 57.5W 12.8N 59.5W 14.3N 61.4W 15.9N 63.2W
BAMD 11.8N 57.5W 12.5N 59.2W 13.5N 61.1W 14.4N 63.1W
BAMM 11.8N 57.5W 12.6N 59.3W 13.7N 61.2W 15.0N 63.2W
LBAR 11.8N 57.5W 12.8N 59.5W 14.2N 61.6W 15.5N 63.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 0000 070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 64.8W 19.0N 68.7W 20.6N 72.7W 22.1N 75.5W
BAMD 15.3N 65.0W 16.2N 68.7W 17.1N 72.4W 18.4N 75.3W
BAMM 16.2N 64.9W 17.6N 68.7W 18.8N 72.6W 20.2N 75.3W
LBAR 16.5N 65.5W 17.6N 70.0W 19.7N 74.6W 23.2N 76.6W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 56KTS 65KTS 51KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 52.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
30 kts!

Also, the models move the system closer to PR...The BAMS is in agreement with GFDL

Yes,every run is more closer by them.

[wxmann_91]

This late in the season, models will more often trend north than south. If we are seeing this, then I'm doubting that this will become anything more than a moderate strength TS.

So many possibilities...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NOGAPS 18Z also passes the system over Puerto Rico

[Vortex]

00Z NAM rolling in...

H+24



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif

[Vortex]

H+30

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

[Vortex]

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif