INVEST 91L : East of Lesser Antilles : Gone from NRL

[wxman57]

Enough on this one already. Bones?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELDS IS SEEN
IN A BROAD SENSE ON THE LATEST IR-IMAGERY ALONG 48W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND
47W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
Still alive... ..don't hope much on this but we should monitor it just to see how it will be in this amazing shear...

[Gustywind]

Not much changes...but shear seems to lightly lessen in average 20kts at the opposite of the previous days 30kts in average...whereas that's sufficient to inhibit something to developp...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Sanibel]

Broken into wave and headed NW. Weak system.

[mightyerick]

The infrared looks better than the other invests.

[mightyerick]

if it survives, when shear decreases it would develop quickly.

[Gustywind]

if it survives, when shear decreases it would develop quickly.

Absolutely, agree with you .... a little window can open given this scenario but right now we're a little far away from that whereas we should keep watching it as usual ...the season has always surprises in store

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N50W 4N48W...THAT HAS A WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N49W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 43W-49W...WHICH IS MOSTLY E OF THE AXIS DUE TO APPROX 30 KT OF WLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA. THE
SFC LOW ALONG THE WAVE MAY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

[punkyg]

from this image it looks a litte better then earlier.

[Thunder44]

From the 5:30am TWO:

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FORECASTER MAINELLI

Although "upper level winds remain unfavorable" it looks like this system is trying get better organized anyway. Can't wait to see more visible images:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[punkyg]

It don't look as good to me as it did last night.

[tailgater]

Without a Quickscat( always seems to miss) I'd say this is a TD now. I'm surprised it didn't get more run from TWO, I guess they need to see more persistence.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
It's being shear true but it does seem from that loop to have a defined LLC and T-storms overhead.

[punkyg]

it don't look that bad, but still its center is not fully covered with convection.

[punkyg]

Heres my biggest question,
will 91L be able to develop while its still attached to this system.

[Thunder44]

From the 8:05am TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 50W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH HAS CAUSED
CONVECTION TO FLARE UP ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE WAVE/LOW FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 47W-50W. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER WINDS.

It hard to pinpoint where the center on visible is but it does appear to be under the convection, close to the western edge and is moving WNW. It may become exposed at anytime though. The ULL to the NW is looks like it's stregthening on WV imagery and shear may increase even more soon.

[Gustywind]

Heres my biggest question,
will 91L be able to develop while its still attached to this system.

Yeah maybe punkyg it's a factor....but once again the KEY FACTOR for me is simple : how 91L can pass these hurddles of shear, where can you go with this ton and unpredictable shear, with this amazing verstality... a few hours it can diminish and the next hour increasing shear :eek:
tremendously...awfull
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html ....20kts of westerly shear that's sufficient to inhibit developement?!....that's once again the 1000$ question... . We will see ...but as the previous 48h hard time for 91L, and if the shear doesn't relax during the next 24h-48h we maybe won't see more than a perturbed area or a TD ( and that's very genearous given the shear trend for my untrained eyes or my eyes are deceiving me )
Note for the info that... as i've always noticed thus this season ...no system passing higher than 18°N between 10°N to 20N between 20w to 60W beginning near CV islands or 20w to 60W with at least TD status...so no record tied...a reality this year not a Warner Bros...testifying how strong the winds are this year since September !

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site 25kts 1009 hpa 14.0N 49,5W 1115 UTC
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

[Thunder44]

WHXX01 KWBC 060928
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0928 UTC SAT OCT 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071006 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071006 0600 071006 1800 071007 0600 071007 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 49.5W 15.1N 51.4W 16.2N 53.4W 17.6N 54.9W
BAMD 14.0N 49.5W 15.2N 50.4W 16.2N 51.2W 17.3N 51.8W
BAMM 14.0N 49.5W 15.1N 51.0W 16.3N 52.2W 17.5N 53.2W
LBAR 14.0N 49.5W 15.5N 50.0W 17.1N 50.7W 19.0N 51.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071008 0600 071009 0600 071010 0600 071011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 55.9W 22.5N 56.2W 26.5N 54.9W 29.7N 52.5W
BAMD 18.5N 52.2W 22.3N 51.1W 25.9N 45.1W 26.4N 41.2W
BAMM 18.7N 53.7W 22.6N 53.1W 26.8N 48.7W 29.0N 42.5W
LBAR 21.2N 50.6W 27.5N 45.2W 33.4N 35.8W 35.0N 27.9W
SHIP 29KTS 37KTS 37KTS 37KTS
DSHP 29KTS 37KTS 37KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 49.5W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 48.8W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 48.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

6z Models

[Gustywind]

Latest Meteo-France 0730 AM
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg