INVEST 91L : East of Lesser Antilles : Gone from NRL

[cycloneye]

06/1145 UTC 14.5N 50.3W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Gustywind]

06/1145 UTC 14.5N 50.3W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Interresting still alive and making come back

[OURAGAN]

I tkink the center is at 13,5N not at 14,5N, the clouds is wrapping near this point and the system is moving westward, the shear is about 20 knots, relaxing a little.

[Gustywind]

I tkink the center is at 13,5N not at 14,5N, the clouds is wrapping near this point and the system is moving westward, the shear is about 20 knots, relaxing a little.

Hi Ouragan do you have a chart where can i see this possible relocation the shear is relaxing but just a bit yeah agree given the nice appareance....i don't know if it's a trend but the NHC don't see significant improvement in upper level win shear always strong , thus westerly shear at 20kt... it's enough strong to impact the system lol??!!!

[OURAGAN]

I have not a chart, this is what i am seeing in this following loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[curtadams]

Obviously a cyclone. There's an obvious LLC under the circulation and definite west winds. Easy to see on shortwave; you don't even need RGB. And if several days of convection in the same spot isn't "persistent" I don't know what is.

[Thunder44]

871
WHXX01 KWBC 061312
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1312 UTC SAT OCT 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071006 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071006 1200 071007 0000 071007 1200 071008 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 50.3W 15.5N 52.5W 16.8N 54.6W 18.1N 55.9W
BAMD 14.4N 50.3W 15.3N 51.2W 16.1N 52.0W 17.1N 52.8W
BAMM 14.4N 50.3W 15.3N 52.0W 16.3N 53.6W 17.4N 54.8W
LBAR 14.4N 50.3W 15.4N 51.0W 16.5N 51.9W 17.8N 52.6W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071008 1200 071009 1200 071010 1200 071011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 56.9W 22.4N 57.3W 26.5N 55.1W 28.6N 49.2W
BAMD 18.1N 53.5W 20.8N 54.3W 24.3N 52.3W 25.6N 47.0W
BAMM 18.4N 55.7W 21.5N 56.2W 25.4N 53.4W 26.9N 47.1W
LBAR 19.6N 53.0W 24.5N 50.1W 30.8N 42.2W 34.9N 30.6W
SHIP 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS 48KTS
DSHP 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 50.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 49.6W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 48.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

12z models

[msbee]

I'm heading to Barbados on Monday.
Think I am going to run into trouble with this system?

[Gustywind]

I have not a chart, this is what i am seeing in this following loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Tkanks a lot for the sat pic, i give you the loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html
Latest from weather wunderground
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Gustywind]

Obviously a cyclone. There's an obvious LLC under the circulation and definite west winds. Easy to see on shortwave; you don't even need RGB. And if several days of convection in the same spot isn't "persistent" I don't know what is.

Interresting do you have the latest Quicksat?

[Gustywind]

Can you someone put the Quicksat please, i dont' have the link?

[WmE]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

[Thunder44]

Take a look at the SSMI pass 1050z, most of the convection is south and east of the center.



On latest visibles it looks like the center partly exposed now near 14.5N at 51W, moving WNW.

[Gustywind]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

Tkanks Wme i appreciate

[WmE]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

Tkanks Wme i appreciate

De rien.

[Thunder44]

I'm heading to Barbados on Monday.
Think I am going to run into trouble with this system?

The upper-level trof ahead of it, should re-curve this system out to sea, over the next few days.

[Gustywind]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

Tkanks Wme i appreciate

De rien.

Lol you speak french good tu parles français très bien! " you speak english very well"

[Gustywind]

I'm heading to Barbados on Monday.
Think I am going to run into trouble with this system?

The upper-level trof ahead of it, should re-curve this system out to sea, over the next few days.

Agree with you if this trend continues....quite difficult to see something forming between 20 w to 60w since September awfull strong winds...hopefully good news for us in the islands only water but no more hope it will continue like that but we're far way from the end of the season...

[Sanibel]

I guess the Sanibel guarantee of formation came through after all. After being put through the wringer. I would guess this should recurve, right?

I have to take a european relative to Disney World. I won't have access for a few days.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS IS A CHANCE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

FORECASTER BEVEN