INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[boca]

One of those ejected vortex's has become a naked spiral over the Florida Straits:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AMX&loop=yes


22N-68W is probably another synoptic eddy looking like a forming center. This trough is looking to deepen as soon as conditions allow it. We could be seeing slow formation towards the big October storm we've been waiting for. There's no way to tell until conditions resolve and allow depth to the system (moisture). This is very similar to the way Wilma formed.

Didn't wilma form right around the Jamaica area or just NE of it, if I'm not mistaken.

[ronjon]

I think the LLC moving over the FL straits is what the numerical models have picked on as being the ultimate deepening cyclone down the road. It is moving W-SW and will be in a position off the NW Cuban coast tomorrow to take advantage of favorable upper level conditions plus additional tropical moisture pulled into the circulation.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=amx&loop=yes

[Sanibel]

Wilma formed from a monsoon trough-like feature hanging over the Caribbean for several days. The Caribbean had low pressure all season, so the hanging deep moisture was like gasoline vapor looking for a match. The hot SST's of the western Caribbean was the match. This one has 2007 dryness pocked in and more shear from different directions. It could be that the shear madness is simmering down. No way to tell until it happens. This cloud bank could dissipate as well.

[boca]

Area north of PR definitely moving due west even though its UL or mid level it could play into the Florida weather next weekor will it head south too eventually. The NWS in Miami are predicting a drying trend all next week so I'm not getting hyped up about this yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Recurve]

One of those ejected vortex's has become a naked spiral over the Florida Straits:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AMX&loop=yes


22N-68W is probably another synoptic eddy looking like a forming center. This trough is looking to deepen as soon as conditions allow it. We could be seeing slow formation towards the big October storm we've been waiting for. There's no way to tell until conditions resolve and allow depth to the system (moisture). This is very similar to the way Wilma formed.

Glad you noticed that. I saw it on radar this morning, wondered WTH is that? Posted a question in TT (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98485)

Early this week we had the most rain in the upper keys in one day since Katrina, according to KWFO.

[Sanibel]

I just came back from the IR loops. I think we are missing the obvious here. The deep convection east of Puerto Rico is probably the persisting flag of a forming system. So I guess that makes 22N-68W the forming center. In this situation you always watch for persisting convection and that flare-up east of Puerto Rico is persisting.

Here we go.

[wxman57]

One of those ejected vortex's has become a naked spiral over the Florida Straits:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AMX&loop=yes


22N-68W is probably another synoptic eddy looking like a forming center. This trough is looking to deepen as soon as conditions allow it. We could be seeing slow formation towards the big October storm we've been waiting for. There's no way to tell until conditions resolve and allow depth to the system (moisture). This is very similar to the way Wilma formed.

Glad you noticed that. I saw it on radar this morning, wondered WTH is that? Posted a question in TT (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98485)

Early this week we had the most rain in the upper keys in one day since Katrina, according to KWFO.

That's just one of three small eddies located northwest of the convection. They won't be a focus for development. Look south to the convection for a low to develop.

[Sanibel]

Puerto Rican long-range radar loop:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[xironman]

The deep convection east of Puerto Rico is probably the persisting flag of a forming system

There are a lot of west winds at the Puerto Rico reporting stations like San Juan http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?CityName=San+Juan&state=PR&site=SJU&textField1=18.4084&textField2=-66.0644. So there maybe something north of there.

[Stormcenter]

When you have to look really hard for signs of development then you know
you have a problem. If anything in this area is going to develop it's not going to happen anytime soon so don't give yourself a headache looking too hard for it. Just my 2 cents.

[Sanibel]

Just about to post the same thing. 92L has given false starts too many times already and now I see a clear linear boundary through the trough going WSW to ENE. That's the sign of weakness. Can only see if that flare-up is still there later today.

[eaglegirl]

From the FDEM/SERT 10-05-2007 Daily Situation Status:

(note: I have included the entire "tropics section" in this thread because it reads a bit complicated this morning)

Tropical Weather Outlook

In the tropics...

TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELDS IS SEEN IN A BROAD SENSE ON THE LATEST IR-IMAGERY ALONG 48W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND
47W AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N99W IN EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N86W BEYOND 31N84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO CREATES A COL POINT SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NON-TROPICAL 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N92W. ONE BURST OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N89.5W. ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. RESIDENTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W THAT HAD BEEN COVERED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS NOW FINDS ITSELF WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA NEAR 24N68W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W...TOUCHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO WEST OF THE CENTER. PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE 24N68W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W...AND IN NORTHERN HAITI. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 20N/21N. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N54W. THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N53W IS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF MELISSA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE 15N45W 34N40W RIDGE AND THE 24N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N30W TO 25N38W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 25N38W AND CONTINUING TO 26N44W AND 27N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 15N45W 22N43W
27N43W TO 34N40W. THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 48W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT PASSES OVER THE TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snippage of TWOAT

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

That is Joe Bastardi's long mentioned (seems like at least two weeks) remnant of Karen that will threaten Florida after 92L has done whatever it will do in the GOMEX or BOC.

[Blown Away]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
At least there is some cyclonic spin in the Bahama region, it's been anti cyclonic for the past few days.

[BigA]

I see three seperate entities, any of which could turn into somthing organized. The first is the nearly naked swirl moving WSW south of Key West. If this survies crossing Cuba and moves into the Western Caribbean, it will enter a rather favorable environment.

The second feature(s) are the areas of convection in the Caribbean. I dont see any turning, but this is the sort of thing that October storms sometimes form out of

The third entity is the area North and Northwest of Puerto Rico. I see a definite turning with it, and if upper level winds become more favorable, it could be the feature that develops.

[fci]

Just about to post the same thing. 92L has given false starts too many times already and now I see a clear linear boundary through the trough going WSW to ENE. That's the sign of weakness. Can only see if that flare-up is still there later today.

Keep in mind that the Pro Mets are saying Saturday or Sunday for development.
Patience grasshopper!

[Cyclenall]

One other comment. Note that the NHC is initializing "the models" near 22.4N/73W. There's not really a low there, they're just picking a point based upon continuity. However, where the models are initialized greatly influences the projected tracks. Without an LLC, don't pay too much attention to the projected tracks of the BAM or GFDL. You just have to be patient. Give it until Sunday afternoon.

Give it until Sunday afternoon and then wait another 10 days for it to come out of the Bay of Campeche

By the time it gets out of the BOC we'll be eating Thanksgiving turkey.

By the time it gets out of the BOC, Canadians will be eating Thanksgiving turkey for real .

Maybe the remnants of the Ghost of karen's past will make it to the 80 longitude line by the Chritmas holidays.

Maybe the remnants will still be there for the start of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
I'm sorry, I know it's my lack of weather education. That circulation to the N of PR has nice spin and is building convection. Don't understand how that is not becoming a significant feature. It might be just a MLC for now, but it definitely looks the most promising for now. It looks better than 90L, 91l, and 92L (Maybe this is a relocated 92L). It looks like a duck and quacks like a duck.

[frederic79]

I agree - the area north of PR looks better than anything else that's shown up. If it is mid-level,
it looks like it's trying to work its way down. Anybody notice that there is visibly little to no shear over this feature? That's a change.

[xironman]

Looking at the water vapor I think the shear is low because the upper level feature is basically on top of it. Little shear but not exactly the best environment for tropical development.