Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030247
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 16 20071103
023730 3256N 07100W 6435 03626 9799 +081 +068 205048 049 038 000 00
023800 3258N 07058W 6434 03628 9801 +081 +069 204048 049 037 000 00
023830 3300N 07055W 6435 03628 9809 +076 +069 204051 051 038 000 00
023900 3301N 07053W 6435 03630 9809 +078 +069 204050 051 040 001 00
023930 3303N 07051W 6435 03632 9811 +078 +065 203050 050 042 001 00
024000 3305N 07049W 6435 03633 9804 +086 +058 199048 049 044 001 00
024030 3307N 07046W 6435 03637 9807 +085 +057 194046 046 044 000 00
024100 3309N 07044W 6436 03638 9813 +081 +069 192047 048 045 001 00
024130 3311N 07042W 6435 03641 9817 +079 +077 191049 049 046 002 00
024200 3312N 07040W 6438 03639 9822 +078 +072 188050 050 048 002 00
024230 3314N 07038W 6437 03642 9823 +078 +072 186047 050 047 001 00
024300 3316N 07036W 6438 03643 9823 +079 +076 186045 047 047 001 00
024330 3318N 07034W 6437 03648 9836 +073 +072 186045 047 049 000 00
024400 3319N 07032W 6438 03648 9842 +071 +065 184047 049 051 000 00
024430 3321N 07030W 6437 03648 9841 +071 +065 183049 051 049 000 00
024500 3323N 07028W 6438 03648 9841 +073 +059 179054 056 050 000 00
024530 3325N 07026W 6436 03653 9848 +069 +062 178057 059 049 000 00
024600 3326N 07023W 6435 03656 9853 +068 +054 174059 060 048 000 00
024630 3328N 07021W 6436 03658 9860 +069 +030 172060 061 048 000 00
024700 3329N 07019W 6437 03659 9856 +073 +035 173059 060 047 001 00

61 kt FL.

[BigA]

00Z NAM has shifted closer to coast compared to the 12Z run, which is more in line with the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL consensus.

Jim Cantore speculated that he thought there would be a 100 mph+ gust on nantucket tomorrow. I'm not sure if I want to go that high, but if that model verifies, then gusts to hurricane force should be expected.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030257
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 17 20071103
024730 3331N 07017W 6436 03661 9857 +072 +040 171058 059 048 000 00
024800 3333N 07015W 6436 03664 9860 +072 +035 172059 060 048 001 00
024830 3334N 07013W 6436 03665 9868 +068 +036 170059 059 048 001 00
024900 3336N 07010W 6437 03667 9870 +069 +037 168058 059 046 000 00
024930 3338N 07008W 6436 03671 9875 +067 +036 169060 061 047 000 00
025000 3340N 07006W 6435 03673 9884 +062 +040 170060 062 048 000 00
025030 3341N 07004W 6437 03673 9887 +061 +044 172061 062 046 001 00
025100 3343N 07002W 6435 03678 9888 +059 +058 171059 060 048 003 00
025130 3345N 07000W 6437 03677 9891 +060 +057 174061 062 047 003 00
025200 3346N 06957W 6436 03680 9892 +060 +052 175061 061 046 003 00
025230 3348N 06955W 6435 03683 9900 +057 +052 172060 060 047 003 00
025300 3350N 06953W 6434 03686 9900 +057 +056 170058 059 046 002 00
025330 3352N 06951W 6434 03688 9904 +056 +056 169059 061 046 002 00
025400 3354N 06949W 6437 03687 9908 +056 +051 171061 062 046 002 00
025430 3355N 06947W 6437 03690 9912 +056 +045 172061 061 044 003 00
025500 3357N 06944W 6437 03692 9917 +054 +050 172064 065 045 001 00
025530 3359N 06942W 6437 03693 9921 +052 +051 174065 065 044 003 00
025600 3401N 06940W 6437 03694 9923 +051 +051 175066 067 046 002 00
025630 3402N 06938W 6435 03698 9928 +049 +049 175066 067 048 007 00
025700 3404N 06936W 6437 03698 9927 +051 +050 176065 066 049 010 00

67 kt FL.

[CrazyC83]

00Z NAM has shifted closer to coast compared to the 12Z run, which is more in line with the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL consensus.

Jim Cantore speculated that he thought there would be a 100 mph+ gust on nantucket tomorrow. I'm not sure if I want to go that high, but if that model verifies, then gusts to hurricane force should be expected.

It is for all intents and purposes a hurricane (with solid 80-90 mph winds), just without its characteristic warm core. That is the only thing missing. People in its path should prepare as if it was a normal Category 1 hurricane (Category 2 around Bay of Fundy perhaps).

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030307
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 18 20071103
025730 3406N 06933W 6434 03703 9930 +050 +050 174066 069 047 009 00
025800 3408N 06931W 6436 03704 9935 +048 +048 170066 067 047 004 00
025830 3409N 06929W 6437 03703 9938 +049 +045 168067 069 046 001 00
025900 3411N 06927W 6438 03704 9944 +047 +042 168070 070 045 000 00
025930 3413N 06925W 6436 03708 9949 +045 +034 169072 072 044 000 00
030000 3415N 06923W 6437 03708 9948 +048 +031 170076 077 044 000 00
030030 3416N 06921W 6436 03714 9953 +047 +030 169074 075 043 000 00
030100 3418N 06919W 6435 03716 9952 +050 +028 166073 074 044 001 03
030130 3420N 06917W 6436 03720 9962 +046 +016 164073 074 040 001 03
030200 3423N 06917W 6439 03716 9971 +040 +029 165072 072 999 999 03
030230 3425N 06919W 6438 03716 9968 +042 +024 165071 071 043 000 00
030300 3426N 06921W 6436 03717 9964 +043 +023 163070 072 043 000 00
030330 3426N 06924W 6437 03712 9961 +042 +030 165070 070 042 000 00
030400 3427N 06927W 6436 03711 9954 +044 +031 166070 071 045 001 00
030430 3427N 06929W 6435 03712 9951 +047 +030 167070 071 047 000 00
030500 3428N 06932W 6436 03710 9944 +050 +033 168072 072 047 001 00
030530 3428N 06935W 6436 03708 9938 +052 +038 167071 072 048 001 00
030600 3429N 06938W 6437 03706 9937 +050 +050 164071 073 049 005 00
030630 3429N 06940W 6434 03707 9938 +048 +048 165072 076 049 007 00
030700 3430N 06943W 6437 03703 9937 +048 +048 163068 071 050 004 00

77 kt FL, at quite a high level!

[CrazyC83]

Flight winds support at least a solid Cat 1 equivalent...75-80 kt.

[BigA]

Flight winds support at least a solid Cat 1 equivalent...75-80 kt.

Yeah, its still a nasty storm. And with an expanding wind field a lot of areas are going to get high winds.

[CrazyC83]

Flight winds support at least a solid Cat 1 equivalent...75-80 kt.

Yeah, its still a nasty storm. And with an expanding wind field a lot of areas are going to get high winds.

The highest so far are 77 kt at the 650mb level so a 0.95 reduction is the maximum there, which supports at least 73 kt. Since the highest have likely not been sampled, I am guessing it is around 80 kt.

The temperature profiles seem to prove their thoughts of it being extratropical, as the highest are 10C/50F at 12,000 ft above the surface. (Although I am certainly not an expert there)

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030317
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 19 20071103
030730 3431N 06946W 6437 03700 9934 +049 +049 161067 067 050 001 00
030800 3432N 06949W 6436 03699 9927 +051 +051 158067 068 049 003 00
030830 3433N 06952W 6435 03698 9925 +050 +050 158065 067 049 008 00
030900 3434N 06955W 6436 03695 9921 +051 +051 161062 066 050 007 00
030930 3435N 06957W 6438 03693 9919 +053 +052 159060 061 050 002 00
031000 3436N 07000W 6438 03690 9914 +056 +052 158063 065 050 003 00
031030 3437N 07003W 6438 03688 9911 +056 +052 158066 067 051 004 00
031100 3438N 07006W 6437 03688 9907 +056 +056 158061 064 051 006 00
031130 3439N 07009W 6436 03689 9912 +054 +053 158059 060 050 003 00
031200 3440N 07011W 6438 03686 9908 +055 +052 155059 062 049 003 00
031230 3441N 07014W 6439 03683 9907 +055 +055 153058 061 050 008 00
031300 3442N 07017W 6435 03687 9903 +055 +055 153064 067 050 005 00
031330 3443N 07020W 6436 03686 9906 +055 +051 152054 057 049 005 00
031400 3444N 07023W 6437 03684 9903 +059 +037 150054 055 048 001 00
031430 3444N 07026W 6437 03684 9906 +056 +040 150055 056 048 002 00
031500 3445N 07029W 6437 03682 9908 +054 +033 149053 053 047 000 00
031530 3446N 07031W 6437 03681 9908 +053 +041 146052 052 045 000 00
031600 3447N 07034W 6437 03678 9906 +052 +047 149052 053 046 000 00
031630 3448N 07037W 6439 03676 9900 +055 +052 148051 053 047 002 00
031700 3449N 07040W 6437 03676 9902 +053 +052 145054 057 045 004 00

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030327
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 20 20071103
031730 3450N 07043W 6437 03675 9899 +053 +051 143054 056 044 003 00
031800 3451N 07045W 6438 03672 9897 +053 +053 143056 058 043 006 00
031830 3452N 07048W 6436 03675 9892 +056 +056 144058 060 044 006 00
031900 3453N 07051W 6436 03673 9891 +055 +055 143060 061 043 010 00
031930 3454N 07054W 6437 03672 9889 +056 +056 138062 063 045 010 00
032000 3455N 07057W 6436 03674 9891 +054 +054 135063 065 046 013 00
032030 3456N 07100W 6433 03678 9891 +055 +055 134061 064 047 012 00
032100 3457N 07103W 6435 03676 9888 +058 +058 132056 059 048 010 00
032130 3458N 07106W 6438 03672 9889 +057 +057 137054 055 047 008 00
032200 3459N 07109W 6437 03673 9891 +054 +054 130059 060 045 009 00
032230 3500N 07112W 6437 03673 9893 +054 +054 132055 056 046 006 00
032300 3501N 07115W 6437 03673 9895 +053 +053 132049 050 046 004 00
032330 3502N 07118W 6437 03673 9895 +053 +053 132050 054 044 003 00
032400 3503N 07120W 6439 03669 9895 +052 +052 129048 049 044 005 00
032430 3503N 07123W 6438 03666 9891 +053 +053 127045 046 999 999 03
032500 3501N 07124W 6441 03661 9889 +053 +053 125045 047 041 003 00
032530 3500N 07124W 6437 03666 9892 +051 +051 125043 044 043 003 00
032600 3458N 07124W 6435 03669 9887 +054 +054 124047 051 044 006 00
032630 3456N 07124W 6435 03666 9880 +055 +055 125050 052 046 006 00
032700 3454N 07124W 6439 03658 9878 +055 +055 120043 044 046 006 00

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030337
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 21 20071103
032730 3452N 07124W 6433 03665 9874 +057 +057 120053 055 047 008 00
032800 3450N 07124W 6437 03658 9869 +059 +059 126050 050 046 007 00
032830 3448N 07124W 6437 03654 9867 +058 +058 127046 048 045 006 00
032900 3446N 07124W 6438 03653 9863 +059 +059 129046 048 043 002 00
032930 3444N 07124W 6431 03658 9860 +059 +059 126054 057 045 006 00
033000 3442N 07124W 6435 03649 9856 +059 +059 129043 046 045 005 00
033030 3440N 07124W 6439 03642 9854 +059 +059 127042 043 043 003 00
033100 3438N 07124W 6437 03641 9852 +059 +059 124043 043 042 000 00
033130 3436N 07123W 6437 03639 9850 +059 +059 122042 042 040 000 00
033200 3434N 07123W 6437 03639 9850 +059 +059 123043 043 041 001 00
033230 3432N 07123W 6437 03637 9842 +063 +057 120041 042 042 001 00
033300 3430N 07123W 6437 03634 9833 +068 +053 122038 038 040 000 00
033330 3428N 07123W 6438 03632 9825 +073 +045 119038 038 040 004 00
033400 3426N 07122W 6437 03631 9826 +070 +048 119037 038 037 002 00
033430 3424N 07122W 6438 03627 9831 +065 +056 121036 037 037 002 00
033500 3422N 07122W 6437 03628 9827 +065 +065 127037 041 037 002 00
033530 3420N 07122W 6437 03626 9822 +066 +066 125042 042 038 004 00
033600 3419N 07122W 6438 03622 9820 +067 +067 129036 037 036 003 00
033630 3417N 07121W 6437 03623 9816 +069 +069 131035 036 038 004 00
033700 3415N 07121W 6436 03623 9813 +070 +070 132033 035 039 004 00

981mb and falling.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030347
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 22 20071103
033730 3413N 07121W 6436 03621 9811 +070 +070 127032 032 041 003 00
033800 3411N 07121W 6437 03620 9808 +071 +071 128033 034 040 002 00
033830 3409N 07121W 6436 03619 9803 +074 +073 136031 032 038 001 00
033900 3407N 07120W 6437 03616 9798 +075 +075 139032 032 037 001 00
033930 3405N 07120W 6437 03615 9797 +076 +073 139032 032 038 002 00
034000 3403N 07120W 6437 03612 9791 +079 +069 140030 031 038 002 00
034030 3401N 07120W 6438 03608 9784 +082 +066 142028 029 036 000 00
034100 3359N 07120W 6437 03606 9778 +083 +075 145028 028 037 001 00
034130 3357N 07120W 6437 03606 9773 +085 +085 142030 031 037 004 00
034200 3355N 07120W 6436 03608 9774 +084 +083 144027 028 036 003 00
034230 3353N 07120W 6438 03605 9772 +088 +068 141029 029 034 000 00
034300 3351N 07119W 6438 03604 9771 +088 +061 144030 030 033 000 00
034330 3349N 07119W 6437 03605 9770 +088 +072 151029 030 031 000 00
034400 3347N 07119W 6438 03603 9768 +088 +075 151028 028 031 000 00
034430 3345N 07119W 6438 03602 9767 +091 +048 155025 027 032 000 00
034500 3343N 07119W 6437 03602 9765 +092 +044 162024 025 032 000 00
034530 3341N 07119W 6438 03600 9764 +091 +051 166021 022 031 000 00
034600 3339N 07118W 6438 03599 9765 +089 +056 169020 021 031 000 00
034630 3337N 07118W 6437 03602 9768 +088 +056 176021 021 033 000 00
034700 3335N 07118W 6436 03604 9770 +086 +063 183021 022 033 000 00

Pressure down to 976mb. Center seems calm for an extratropical system...

[cpdaman]

maybe a pro could chime in , but i believe the wind reduction is greater (i.e greater reduction) in Extra-Tropical storms than tropical one's.

also W. Bermuda bouy shows seas of 37 feet.

[btangy]

00Z initialization differences between the NAM and GFS are somewhat larger than normal. NAM is stronger and further south. The former may be due to higher resolution, but the location differences are a bit odd. The GFS also has greater upstream ridging, and as a result, has a slower solution now, but a similar track to the 12Z run. It'll be interesting to see what HPC says about the initialization differences between the two models.

[Derek Ortt]

the SFMR has not hurricane force winds at the moment

95% reduction does not apply. use something like 60-70 here

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030357
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 23 20071103
034730 3333N 07118W 6436 03603 9772 +084 +065 188023 024 032 000 00
034800 3331N 07118W 6436 03603 9771 +084 +067 190024 025 032 000 00
034830 3329N 07118W 6436 03602 9770 +085 +070 196024 024 031 000 00
034900 3327N 07117W 6436 03601 9766 +087 +071 201026 027 032 000 00
034930 3325N 07117W 6436 03600 9764 +088 +070 206026 027 031 000 00
035000 3323N 07117W 6437 03600 9763 +090 +067 209024 025 032 000 00
035030 3321N 07117W 6436 03602 9766 +087 +070 211025 026 031 000 00
035100 3319N 07117W 6437 03602 9766 +089 +069 211027 029 032 000 00
035130 3317N 07117W 6437 03603 9761 +092 +066 215029 029 033 000 00
035200 3315N 07117W 6436 03605 9765 +091 +067 217031 032 034 000 00
035230 3313N 07117W 6436 03605 9765 +091 +070 218033 034 035 000 00
035300 3311N 07117W 6437 03606 9766 +091 +069 221034 034 035 000 00
035330 3309N 07117W 6437 03606 9767 +091 +064 226034 034 035 000 00
035400 3307N 07117W 6437 03608 9766 +093 +061 226035 036 036 000 00
035430 3305N 07117W 6436 03609 9769 +092 +062 225036 037 037 000 00
035500 3303N 07117W 6436 03612 9773 +091 +066 225038 039 036 000 00
035530 3301N 07117W 6436 03614 9773 +092 +064 227041 041 037 000 00
035600 3259N 07117W 6438 03612 9774 +093 +061 231042 043 038 000 00
035630 3257N 07117W 6438 03614 9776 +092 +061 230042 043 039 000 00
035700 3255N 07117W 6438 03614 9779 +092 +057 231043 043 039 000 00

Large gradient of 976mb.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Highest sustained 1 minute surface wind was about 65-66 knots according to recon.

Highest sustained 1 minute wind at flight level was about 75-76 knots at 12,000 feet. At the time that was measured, SFMR surface winds were just 43 knots, a reduction around 60%.

When the highest surface wind was found, the reduction was about 140%, with the flight level winds around 47 knots. But since it was very close to a max wind of around 58 knots, maybe a reduction around 110% instead close to that point.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030407
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 24 20071103
035730 3253N 07117W 6438 03616 9780 +092 +057 229042 043 040 000 00
035800 3251N 07117W 6438 03616 9781 +092 +053 230042 042 040 000 00
035830 3249N 07117W 6437 03620 9790 +086 +061 234044 044 040 001 00
035900 3247N 07117W 6437 03622 9797 +082 +063 238045 045 040 000 00
035930 3245N 07117W 6437 03623 9806 +078 +068 240046 047 041 000 00
040000 3243N 07117W 6436 03630 9811 +076 +069 239047 047 043 000 00
040030 3241N 07117W 6436 03631 9811 +079 +057 242045 046 044 000 00
040100 3239N 07117W 6436 03632 9811 +081 +053 242045 045 046 000 00
040130 3237N 07117W 6436 03636 9808 +085 +049 242046 048 047 000 00
040200 3235N 07117W 6436 03638 9818 +080 +051 241051 053 052 000 00
040230 3233N 07117W 6436 03641 9829 +075 +047 241055 055 052 000 00
040300 3230N 07117W 6435 03643 9837 +071 +051 242055 055 053 000 00
040330 3228N 07117W 6437 03644 9844 +068 +053 244053 054 050 000 00
040400 3226N 07117W 6438 03647 9850 +066 +056 244052 052 049 000 00
040430 3224N 07117W 6438 03650 9852 +067 +058 243052 053 047 000 00
040500 3222N 07117W 6436 03655 9853 +068 +057 244051 051 049 001 00
040530 3220N 07117W 6437 03658 9856 +069 +052 244051 051 047 000 00
040600 3218N 07117W 6438 03658 9861 +066 +057 248050 051 044 000 00
040630 3216N 07117W 6436 03661 9866 +064 +058 250054 059 047 001 00
040700 3214N 07117W 6436 03664 9871 +062 +062 241065 065 047 003 00

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030417
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 25 20071103
040730 3212N 07117W 6439 03663 9874 +061 +061 242065 066 055 009 00
040800 3210N 07117W 6438 03666 9880 +060 +059 244062 064 059 002 00
040830 3208N 07117W 6438 03667 9881 +059 +059 249059 060 061 001 00
040900 3206N 07117W 6439 03669 9879 +062 +062 251058 059 059 004 00
040930 3204N 07117W 6436 03675 9886 +060 +060 255056 057 058 003 00
041000 3202N 07117W 6439 03673 9887 +061 +061 258055 056 056 005 00
041030 3200N 07117W 6436 03681 9892 +060 +060 256053 055 051 002 00
041100 3158N 07117W 6439 03680 9894 +060 +060 260055 055 052 002 00
041130 3156N 07117W 6439 03681 9892 +063 +063 259055 056 052 001 00
041200 3154N 07117W 6437 03688 9895 +064 +064 257053 054 047 001 00
041230 3152N 07117W 6437 03689 9898 +063 +063 256050 051 044 002 00
041300 3150N 07117W 6436 03693 9907 +059 +059 259050 051 043 001 00
041330 3148N 07117W 6439 03690 9908 +059 +059 261049 050 042 000 00
041400 3146N 07117W 6435 03700 9907 +063 +058 254051 054 041 000 03
041430 3144N 07116W 6436 03700 9914 +062 +041 248060 062 999 999 03
041500 3143N 07113W 6438 03698 9910 +066 +032 245061 062 999 999 03
041530 3144N 07111W 6440 03694 9923 +056 +039 246064 064 046 000 00
041600 3146N 07109W 6440 03694 9914 +062 +038 242065 067 047 000 00
041630 3148N 07106W 6436 03699 9916 +059 +049 239060 061 048 001 00
041700 3150N 07104W 6437 03697 9910 +064 +040 238060 061 048 002 00

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 030427
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL HDOB 26 20071103
041730 3152N 07102W 6436 03698 9901 +070 +033 236062 062 049 002 00
041800 3154N 07100W 6436 03697 9894 +074 +034 235059 060 048 001 00
041830 3156N 07058W 6441 03688 9888 +075 +051 239059 059 048 000 00
041900 3158N 07056W 6438 03689 9895 +068 +063 240059 063 049 003 00
041930 3200N 07054W 6437 03690 9904 +059 +059 241064 064 050 004 00
042000 3202N 07051W 6436 03689 9903 +059 +059 243064 064 051 005 00
042030 3204N 07049W 6435 03689 9902 +058 +058 247064 065 052 005 00
042100 3206N 07047W 6436 03688 9901 +059 +059 247064 064 052 004 00
042130 3208N 07045W 6437 03686 9899 +059 +059 246064 064 053 004 00
042200 3210N 07043W 6436 03684 9896 +060 +060 246064 064 054 004 00
042230 3212N 07041W 6438 03681 9892 +061 +061 244064 065 058 000 00
042300 3214N 07039W 6437 03681 9890 +061 +061 241062 063 058 001 00
042330 3216N 07036W 6439 03677 9890 +061 +061 236063 064 060 001 00
042400 3218N 07034W 6438 03676 9889 +061 +060 236064 064 061 001 00
042430 3219N 07032W 6438 03675 9889 +061 +058 234063 063 063 001 00
042500 3221N 07030W 6440 03672 9880 +065 +057 233064 065 064 002 00
042530 3223N 07028W 6439 03671 9881 +062 +062 232064 065 065 003 00
042600 3225N 07026W 6437 03670 9881 +062 +059 230063 064 068 001 00
042630 3227N 07024W 6438 03669 9882 +061 +056 229065 067 072 000 00
042700 3229N 07021W 6438 03667 9877 +063 +058 227065 065 075 002 00

75 kt SFMR...