INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

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#21 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:16 am

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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : 11:30 AM TWO Posted

#22 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:20 am

Wxman57:

Any chance of this thing bouncing north and towards us?
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:24 am

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Re: INVEST 91L: Models Thread

#24 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:27 am

Interesting. Noel goes east and north. 91L goes west and south. No rain for Sanibel.


Let's see if that chart nudges a little north.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:51 am

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#26 Postby Frank2 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:57 am

Sanibel,

Perhaps the professional folks can shed some light on this, but, there is a cold front (a Texas blue norther, actually) forecast to move southeastward across the Gulf and Florida by Tuesday, so, I suppose it depends on whether the system will linger or move onshore Central America before the pre-frontal trough moves far enough south to pick up what might form:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : 11:30 AM TWO Posted

#27 Postby GCANE » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:03 am

This became an Invest quiker than I thought. With convection dropping last night, I thought NHC would call it an Invest later in the weekend.

VIS Sat shows convection firing over the center of the surface low.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 15&lon=-82

UL Winds are about 20 knots over the center, which is displacing the convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

It has found an opportunity to develop in a pocket of low shear:

Image

I don't see rapid intensification with this in the immediate future since it is not sitting directly under an UL High.

Image

I need to wait and see the NHC Floater come up to get a reading on Lifting Index.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:05 am

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The intensity of the convection is decreasing but the organization of the system continues.
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#29 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:12 am

Heat content in this region of the Caribbean is still quite high, so thermodynamically, there is still quite a bit of energy to be harvested by this system. Wouldn't surprise me if it developed quickly.
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : 11:30 AM TWO Posted

#30 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:13 am

Sanibel wrote:Wxman57:

Any chance of this thing bouncing north and towards us?


Nope. Storms like Mexico or Central America this year, it appears.
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:16 am

Wxman57:

Do you have a surface analysis for this one? They're always great!!!
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Re: INVEST 91L : SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:19 am

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Re: INVEST 91L : SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#33 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:30 am

It probably formed because the SW steering currents pulled it away from Noel's influence. You can see a solid EPAC flow on that steering current map. No chance on it coming north.
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Re: INVEST 91L : SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#34 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:52 am

Good call GCANE.

You called this thing developing before anybody on this board, even the pro mets.

Hats off to you!
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#35 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:54 am

This time of year we really have to watch these systems...because fronts can pull them N quickly.
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Re: INVEST 91L : SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#36 Postby CourierPR » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:Good call GCANE.

You called this thing developing before anybody on this board, even the pro mets.

Hats off to you!
Nice pat on the back for yourself.
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Re:

#37 Postby CourierPR » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:This time of year we really have to watch these systems...because fronts can pull them N quickly.
Apparently, that's not in the cards for this system.
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Re:

#38 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Wxman57:

Do you have a surface analysis for this one? They're always great!!!


Here's a 17Z analysis. May bet a few more obs at 18Z. It appears to be moving faster than 3 kts, so it may not have more than another 36 hours over water.

Image
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#39 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:26 pm

Wxman I disagree. Looks like it is just crawling West.....
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Re:

#40 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wxman I disagree. Looks like it is just crawling West.....


Hard to tell as there's not much to focus on. I'll try to run along loop and get an estimate. I can put my cursor anywhere on the image and advance the image a few hours then measure the distance covered.
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