INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

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#41 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Was this yet another potential post-season upgrade?


About zero chance of that. It needs convection near the center to be upgraded.
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#42 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:04 pm

... Which it doesn't, and most likely will not, have.
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#43 Postby dtrain44 » Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:56 pm

105 TWD describes it as a gale low pressure center and it's still on NRL. I suppose it's not entirely done, but I don't think enough will happen to get this thing STD status in the GOM, much less where it is......

Not a whole lot of convection and not much reason to think it will come around......
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#44 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:17 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 062216
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
WWWW

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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#45 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:25 pm

Bye-bye...
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#46 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:28 am

NOT SO FAST,.

The system has refired convection on the north and eastern quads. This thing does not look to bad to me.


06/2345 UTC 30.1N 35.7W ST2.5/2.5 92L
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:58 am

Image

Image

Looking much better.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE EAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN/NELSON


07/0545 UTC 29.8N 34.1W ST2.5/2.5 92L
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:37 am

07/1145 UTC 30.4N 32.6W ST2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean
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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 07, 2007 8:30 am

Image

Image

Image

CONVECTION DEVELOPS RIGHT OVER THE CENTER.
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#50 Postby RL3AO » Wed Nov 07, 2007 8:45 am

If it is warm core that meets the description of a tropical cyclone. Not that I expect the NHC to issue advisories.
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#51 Postby Buck » Wed Nov 07, 2007 8:50 am

Wow, it looks good now (in comparison to 12 hours ago).
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Convection develops over center

#52 Postby dtrain44 » Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:11 am

Certainly much better. It's almost as good as it was at its peak - but I think it will need to be slightly better than that for advisories to be issued.....
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Convection develops over center

#53 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:38 am

That one convective burst is about 70 miles northeast of the center as of the latest image at 8:15am CST. The surface low is now rotating around to the southeastern side of the upper low. Southwesterly wind shear is blowing the convection off to the northeast. NHC won't do anything with it in its current state.
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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:04 am

Image

Latest.
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:46 am

Image
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Convection develops over center

#56 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:15 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071611
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 560 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

Not a strong bullish TWO but at least they mention the convection.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#57 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:05 pm

Thunderstorms are less concentrated than they were 3-5 hours ago. And the center is opening up. NHC will let this one just move off to the northeast and die unless it develops an eye.
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#58 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:11 pm

Darnit! The second I give up on this and leave, it refires convection! I think the NHC is giving this thing a little less credit than is due; the convection is surprising for something so far north. I'm not sure what to say about this one right now, though.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#59 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:27 pm

NOT official:

Imo this is subtrop/trop warm core and so was 95L and the canary system that is 17 storms
Imo but oh well. I dont know much anyway LOL.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#60 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:55 pm

I agree tamp bay hurricane. I believe that system that raced off to the north west of Briton was a tropical storm to, this one looks like a tropical storm. I don't get why it would need to form a eye, but this just makes any seasonal forecast worthless. Why make a seasonal forecast, while the officals won't place every storm that develops on record to back it.

Thing looks good, nothing is perfect unless your dealing with a cat5, wxman57.
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