![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/SHEM/94S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20071207.0800.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.94SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-94S-873E.100pc.jpg)
北京时间7日14:30,JTWC提前六小时修改报告:
一团热带扰动现位于9.4S 87.3E,大约在迭戈.加西亚岛以东890海里的洋面上。10:10分(北京时间)的分析显示,一团对流云层已经形成深度对流中心,受到东北方向的中度风切的影响,部分对流被切向西南方向。来自北方的充分辐散和适宜的海水热度已使该扰动得到一定发展,主要限制该系统发展的因素就是中度风切。目前最大风速约在15-20KT,海平面最低气压在1007mb,该扰动在24小时内发展成热带气旋的可能性为POOR。
an area of convection has persisted near 9.4s 87.3e,
approximately 890 nm east of Diego Garcia. Animated multispectral
imagery and a 070210 ssmis microwave image indicate a persistent
area of deep convection banding wrapping into a well-define low
level circulation center. The convective banding is displaced to the
southwest by moderate vertical wind from the northeast. Good
poleward outflow along with favorable ocean heat content has fueled
the deep convection of the disturbance. The moderate vertical wind
shear is the main limiting factor of further development. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is poor.