Apogee November 2012

[gigabite]

[u][i] [/i][/u]

[JonathanBelles]

Is there an explanation on this??

[gigabite]

There was a thread that suggested that at or near the closest perigee for the year the tendency for major earthquakes increases. The last time I posted this date RL3AO and I kicked this around and my take away from that was that the apogee after the super moon may be a factor if there is any relationship at all. I have been thinking that tidal bulge may excite fracture movement. My research seems to suggest that if the lunar sub-point at the new moon crosses a fracture zone the earthquake frequency (not magnitude) increases 180 degrees away. Macrocane brought the super moon issue up hours before the Japanese earthquake March 11, 2011. The Super moon was Mar 19 19:10 356577 km ++ F+ 0h, the earthquake did not happen at the Super moon, but the moon was accelerating towards perigee. That indicates jerk as a factor. The event on May 6, 2012 3:34 356953 km ++ F- 0h is a full moon accelerating toward perigee over a mountain range, but it is a few hundred kilometers further out. This post is just a heads-up; there is an increased chance that some type of notable earthquake activity could occur in May, maybe 16 earthquakes on the 6th on then NEIC web site.

[Macrocane]

I had forgotten about that thread, but it was very shocking that we talked about it a couple of days before Japan's Quake/Tsunami: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=110510

[RL3AO]

I had forgotten about that thread, but it was very shocking that we talked about it a couple of days before Japan's Quake/Tsunami: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=110510

But it wasn't a couple days before. The supermoon was eight days AFTER the quake/tsunami. That means at the time of the quake the moon was closer to apogee (its farthest point from Earth) then perigee (closest point).

[gigabite]

This is a list of Supermoons ranked by their distance to the earth.

YEAR......DIST.......EQ
2008......356567....48
2011......356577....122
2010......356592....27
2007......356754....41
2001......356852....22
2002......356897....18
2012......356953....24
2004......357248....23

There is a relationship between the Full Moon at Super Perigee and the earthquake frequency on that day. The moon has to be exceptionally close for there to be a spike in the count, for a large spike the lunar sub-point has to be crossing over an active fault line.

NOTE: The missing years are when Super Perigee was at the New Moon.

[RL3AO]

How does that compare to any other perigee or even a "super apogee", where you have apogee and a full moon together?

[gigabite]

I will work on it after I weed the garden. The thing is Super Apogee is normally closer to the New Moon there is only one instance when it was at the Full Moon in the last 13 years.

[gigabite]

This table ranks Super Apogee distance from furthest to closest and the corresponding worldwide earthquake frequency for that day. There is a relationship. It is stronger than the Full Moon at Super Perigee. There is an additional factor that strengthens the relationship that is the difference in time between Super Apogee and the phase New or Full. As Perigee or Apogee moves correspondingly real close or real far the worldwide earthquake frequency ratchets up. The Super Apogee on May 19, 2012 is closer to earth than the half the population and in all likelihood the earthquake count will be between 37 and 51. In 2000 6 out of 51 earthquakes were magnitude 5 or better, and in 2009 5 out of 37 were 5 or better, so it looks like May 2012 will not be so super bad, and it looks like things will be super normal until 2016 when Super Perigee is super close, closer than 2011

YEAR.....DIST.....EQ
2002........406704..76
2007........406670..79
2011........406655..69
2005........406629..96
2008........406600..90
2004........406574..100
2001........406563..92
2010........406541..52
2003........406528..84
2006........406498..71
2012........406450
2009........406232..37
2000........406199..51

correlation coefficient = 0.68749866

[gigabite]

Celestial Navigation Data for 2016 Nov 14 at 11:45:40 UT

For Assumed Position: Latitude N 40 00.0
Longitude W 90 00.0

Almanac Data
Object GHA Dec
SUN 0 17.6 S18 24.1
MOON 180 17.6 N13 28.3
Perigee
Nov 14 2016 11:24 356511 km ++ F- 2h
Mar 19 2011 19:10 356577 km ++ F+ 0h

[gigabite]

SCATTER PLOT OF TABLES ABOVE

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[gigabite]

Apogee on November 28, 2012 at the Full Moon with Jupiter near opposition could rank on this earthquake frequency chart to maybe 60 quakes with the lunar distance being 406364 km.

[RL3AO]

Jupiter at opposition?

Jupiter on 11/28 will be at 4.07 AU with a gravitational pull between Earth of about 2.0422E+16 N.

The Moon on 11/28 will be at 0.0026 AU with a gravitational pull between the Earth of about 1.786E+20 N.

That means the Moon will have about 8750 times the gravitational influence on Earth than Jupiter that night.

[gigabite]

I usual work in dynes. Jupiter should be 1.04% of the moon at this distance. Gravity is associative, so it is added on the moon side. This is an old worksheet I am working on a better one for next year. I only updated Jupiter. The net effect of Jupiter is to pull the Earth away from the Sun, and the Moon away from the Earth. I suppose that this gives the tectonic plates more freedom to move.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This is the ephemeris I use.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi

[gigabite]

Jupiter at opposition?

Jupiter on 11/28 will be at 4.07 AU with a gravitational pull between Earth of about 2.0422E+16 N.

The Moon on 11/28 will be at 0.0026 AU with a gravitational pull between the Earth of about 1.786E+20 N.

That means the Moon will have about 8750 times the gravitational influence on Earth than Jupiter that night.

If you convert the force of Jupiter on the the surface area of earth it would be equivalent to 19 million Saturn V Rockets per square meter, to qualify that it is very rare that the actual force vector ever gets close to earth.

[gigabite]

Apogee on November 28, 2012 at the Full Moon with Jupiter near opposition could rank on this earthquake frequency chart to maybe 60 quakes with the lunar distance being 406364 km.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


42 quakes 2.5 magnitude and above on 11/28/2012 according to NEIC.

[gigabite]

bump: chart added