ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

I could very well be wrong but this thing looks to be rapidly orgenizing to TD and maybe to TS status

[MGC]

Yep, looks like 93L is on its way to depression status soon. Watch out Cuba.....MGC

[bahamaswx]

Looks like a Lili-type track.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm thinking more Jamaica and extreme eastern Cuba or Haiti. These cyclones tend to track east of the initial model guidance

[gatorcane]

I agree it could very well become a Hurricane

I think the question may soon be not whether it will become a hurricane but whether it will become a major. Some reliable models such as the HWRF predict a 140mph hurricane into Eastern Cuba.

[hurricanefloyd5]

don't count on that one right yet but let's see what the next few model runs say...

[Derek Ortt]

I agree it could very well become a Hurricane

I think the question may soon be not whether it will become a hurricane but whether it will become a major. Some reliable models such as the HWRF predict a 140mph hurricane into Eastern Cuba.

didn't Hurricane Ike teach us to not use the term major hurricane

it does not take a major to cause significant problems. If this goes how I think it will, Haiti will flood yet again

[x-y-no]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

I could very well be wrong but this thing looks to be rapidly orgenizing to TD and maybe to TS status

No, I don't think you're wrong. Looks like it should be a TD later today.

[CaneMaster]

Like I said IMO I believe she's undergoing RI and will become Paloma by late tomarrow, earliest possibly this evening.
It got it's act together too quickly and in it's current state looks like it could become something quite nasty, The sat from 9:00 am and the sat from 11:00 am shows it seems to be undergoing RI, with the bursting going on nice flow as well, this one very well may become shall we say a ringer... surprised there aren't many people watching this, the shear is moderate and it seems to be in a nice area to linger and soak up some energy, My guestimates are cat 2 at landfall if it makes the transition into hurricane status, other than that it just needs to avoid the stream and high shear, and keep the dry air from wrapping into it.
Just my amateur opinion........

[gatorcane]

93L reminds me *alot* of Omar's development (and probably path)

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

I could very well be wrong but this thing looks to be rapidly orgenizing to TD and maybe to TS status

No, I don't think you're wrong. Looks like it should be a TD later today.

It's a TD now but NHC will want recon to confirm, it will be official by the 5PM EST advisory (about a 50% NHC will upgrade it straight to TS Paloma later today)

[gatorcane]

Look at this large anticyclone over the SW Caribbean sitting right over 93L's low-level circulation -- very good for development -- looks more like October in the Caribbean than November.

Kudos for the UKMET shear analysis forecast for nailing the development of this large anticyclone about 8 days in advance

[Sanibel]

Can't locate clear center.

[HURAKAN]

WTNT01 KNGU 051300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051230Z NOV 08//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 83.0W TO 18.0N 82.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 01 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 82.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:VISIBLE METSAT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTION.
INFRARED METSAT IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WHICH SUPPORTS LOWER LEVEL ORGANIZATION. WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ABOVE THE SYSTEM AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
82F GREATLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061300Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive.

[gatorcane]

Explosive convection right over or just south of the center -- get ready for some significant intensification over the next 24 hours:

[jconsor]

Good point. Many recurving Oct/Nov Caribbean hurricanes in recent years did move to the east of NHC and model forecasts - Lili (1996), Irene and Lenny (1999), Michelle (2001), Omar (2008). The most blatant errors were with Irene, Lenny and Michelle.

I'm thinking more Jamaica and extreme eastern Cuba or Haiti. These cyclones tend to track east of the initial model guidance

[hurricanefloyd5]

the low is under all that heavy convection i think closer to the coast!!!!!!!!!

[dixiebreeze]

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1200 UTC 9.8N 120.1W T1.5/1.5 POLO -- East Pacific
05/1145 UTC 14.1N 82.3W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic

[Category 5]

I wake up this morning and find this?

It's not a question of if it's going to develop, but a question of when IMO.