ATL: IKE Discussion

[Cyclenall]

BREAKING NEWS=BEST TRACK at 00:00 UTC upgrades the winds to 105 kts and pressure down to 956 mbs:

AL, 09, 2008090400, , BEST, 0, 218N, 533W, 105, 956, HU,

For the first time in days, i'm in agreement with the NHC.

[superfly]

Wilma by far, it had a 2 nmi eye.

Err I wasn't asking about Eye size. Was talking about actual size?

Size of what? I'm talking about the size of its winds. Wilma only had hurricane force winds out to 15 miles.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

[Grease Monkey]

Definitely looks like the smallest major ive seen in a good while.

I would think Ike would have a lot of potential to grow in size because there's a lot of moisture ahead of him?

[jdjaguar]

Wilma by far, it had a 2 nmi eye.

Err I wasn't asking about Eye size. Was talking about actual size?

Size of what? I'm talking about the size of its winds. Wilma only had hurricane force winds out to 15 miles.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

15 miles at 175 that is compact

[Just Joshing You]

Wilma by far, it had a 2 nmi eye.

Err I wasn't asking about Eye size. Was talking about actual size?

Size of what? I'm talking about the size of its winds. Wilma only had hurricane force winds out to 15 miles.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AGAIN, I was talking about the SIZE of the storm. If I wanted to know how far Hurricane force winds went, I would have asked that. Instead, I had asked about the SIZE of the storm.

[Stephanie]

I was thinking that Ike looked like he's going to score a strike with Hannah. He sure is catching up to her and he's SCARY looking!!

[captain east]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If anything Hurricane Ike would Eat Tropical Storm Hanna's outflow/
shear bands. I expect Ike to suck in some of Hanna's moisture (east side
moisture).

[Scorpion]

The South FL media is going to have a field day tomorrow if the track remains the same.

[superfly]

AGAIN, I was talking about the SIZE of the storm. If I wanted to know how far Hurricane force winds went, I would have asked that. Instead, I had asked about the SIZE of the storm.

That IS the size of the storm. Hurricane sizes are defined by how far their winds extend out.

[punkyg]

hey wxman57 whats your take on Ike?

[RL3AO]

AGAIN, I was talking about the SIZE of the storm. If I wanted to know how far Hurricane force winds went, I would have asked that. Instead, I had asked about the SIZE of the storm.

That IS the size of the storm. Hurricane sizes are defined by how far their winds extend out.

Yes. But its the tropical storm force winds, not hurricane force for the record.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the latest loop, I think i see the start of a deformation zone in Ike's western edge. My personal opinion is that Ike is about to get hammered with shear. I think it will weaken to cat 1, and come back in a couple of days. In short, this moment of greatness is about to end IMO. Not counting him out down the road, but Hanna is absolutely huge and moving slowly. I just dont see him avoiding the downstream outflow of Hanna much longer. Something will give, and it will be Ike.

[wxman57]

Ike sure is a relatively small hurricane. As I measure it from one side to another (squalls to squalls), I get only about 160nm, roughly 200 miles. It's only about 80-90 miles out from the center to the feeder bands. What I don't get is why the NHC is placing the TS winds out to 140nm from the center. What's up with that? I calculate closer to about 60-70 miles from the center based on satellite.

[punkyg]

AGAIN, I was talking about the SIZE of the storm. If I wanted to know how far Hurricane force winds went, I would have asked that. Instead, I had asked about the SIZE of the storm.

That IS the size of the storm. Hurricane sizes are defined by how far their winds extend out.

he means convection coverage.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Annular?

[RL3AO]

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

It passed 6 of the 7 steps. I'm guessing the fail was on eye size.

[Blown Away]

So does the track continue to bend WNW to NW after day 5 or does it continue towards the Keys and into the Gulf?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So does the track continue to bend WNW to NW after day 5 or does it continue towards the Keys and into the Gulf?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like it would bend WNW into Southeast Florida extrapolating that track,
so long as the axis of the ridge extends to that area on day 5. This really could
be a category 3+ into Florida, possibly*. *5 days are always uncertain

[MortisFL]

So does the track continue to bend WNW to NW after day 5 or does it continue towards the Keys and into the Gulf?

Thats the million dollar question. Glad its moving at the speed it is now. At least we wont have to sit here and scratch our heads for weeks about it.