ATL: IKE Discussion

[RBDnhm]

Trees - Mature (30 yrs and up) oaks blow over big time. Large Pines snap about 1/3 of the way up. Only things that really seem to withstand it well are magnolias, river birches, black gums and bald cypress. Lost more than 100 trees in Rita on 13 acres. Pines are what destroyed most houses in Beaumont, splitting many in half

[thetruesms]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

I would think that a young or a mature oak would survive somewhat better than a pine - but an elderly oak may have some structural issues that would weaken it.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm quite encouraged by the steady pressure (vortex 956mb last few minutes) and FL winds all below 90 kts now. Just 24 hours to go and Ike still can't get its engine going. I'll be riding it out about 10 miles west of Galveston Bay at our office in southeast Houston.

As far as the surge into the Bay, just a tiny track change can mean the difference between 15-20 feet into the bay or tides below normal. As Ike is now, it wouldn't produce 25 feet in the bay if it hit just to the west, but 15-20 feet would cause a lot of damage. Not high enough to get to me at work, I'm pretty sure. They say we're outside the surge zone.

I'll be reporting in from work tomorrow after my day shift ends. Nothing else to do but watch the storm at that point.

New NHC advisory in - Cat 2 at landfall (95 kts). I think getting to Cat 3 looks to be a stretch at this point. At least I hope so. I'll have a hand-held anemometer with me at work tomorrow night.

Thanx wxman57 for posting this. I've been reading all these messages about the storm looking better organized, and I'm scratching my head saying "really???" I see a storm struggling with dry air and no signs of an eye popping out yet. Perhaps the pressure readings you mentioned and flight levels winds will make people listen to what you are saying...I thought the NHC would reduce it to a Cat2 at landfall. I mentioned that earlier today as they kept dropping the winds...I don't think it will drop down to a cat 1 though, even though it's only 10 mph from that...It's possible, but I don't see it at this point.

[THead]

Been looking at observations from Buoy 42001 in the Mid Gulf at 25.9 N 89.667W - The eye must have passed pretty close to this buoy because at 4pm CST the air pressure at the buoy was 28.34in. Peak winds at the buoy today however were only 49 knots with gusts to 62 knots. Max wave hts was 30 ft at 2pm and is now most recently down to 16ft. At 750 pm winds had subsided a little to 45/58 knots with pressure rising rapidly.

Looks like Ike's going to have to do some pretty fast intensification to get to a Cat 3 or 4.

Winds back up a bit at that buoy as of 9:50

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 68.0 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[artist]

Where I live on the island doesn't get a whole lotta talk: the north side. If Ike strikes anywhere from about mid-Galveston Island to Freeport, the surge will run up the Bay and wrap around the eastern side of the island and flood the backside badly. We're not protected from the Bay by anything, so should the surge come in the "back door," everything from Harborside to Broadway would be in serious danger of flooding.

and he lives off Broadway.

Broadway, even in a hard rain, can turn into a flood trap. I can completely sympathize with his condition. My wife and I live on the north side in a small subdiv off Harborside right near the Interstate, so, we're in the same shape he's in. (We've evac'd to her mom's house in La., so we're outta the way.)

they are in the Dallas area themselves. They just got the house and haven't been through anything here before.

[CrazyC83]

Here is how I see it - this is really weird indeed:

[AJC3]

An eyewall is definitely forming. Anyone who doesn't think Ike is getting its act together, I don't know what to tell you.

Totally, who wouldn't think Ike is strengthening? Rising pressure and no eye reported by recon, it's undergoing rapid intensification as we speak.

Hey gang...we can do without the "you're crazy if you don't see what I see" type posts, as well as the sarcastic replies. Peeps can disagree with each other, just do so with a little more respect before things start to escalate. Thx.

[MGC]

Name your poison, wind or water? Ike's inner core is dead, good little chance of reaching Cat-3....but, the wind field is expanding. I can tell you that the wind in blowing along the MGC this evening. Tide is up against the seawall and might cover the road at hight tide. Ya'll along the Texas and W La coast are in for a big surge. Pray Ike passes east of Galveston Bay. A landfall west of the bay will be a disaster. God bless all of you in peril in the coming days.....MGC

[Sanibel]

Almost looks like a failed annular eye.

[superfly]

Totally, who wouldn't think Ike is strengthening? Rising pressure and no eye reported by recon, it's undergoing rapid intensification as we speak.

No reason to be an ass about it. I suppose you are the end all on all forecasting.

Not at all, I simply know how to analyze the data available. I have no clue what Ike will do in 12 hours, but I know for a fact Ike is not strengthening RIGHT NOW. I'm just sick of people sensationalizing Ike's supposed intensification in the face of empirical data contrary to that.

[bob rulz]

Trees - Mature (30 yrs and up) oaks blow over big time. Large Pines snap about 1/3 of the way up. Only things that really seem to withstand it well are magnolias, river birches, black gums and bald cypress. Lost more than 100 trees in Rita on 13 acres. Pines are what destroyed most houses in Beaumont, splitting many in half

Don't forget palms. Palm trees are notorious for being able to survive hurricanes.

I still think that this storm is too unpredictable to make any definitive statements. Cat 3 is still a possibility for sure. Cat 4 is even still possible, though not likely.

Luckily a cat 5 is essentially out of the question.

[AZRainman]

Next in line of Ike: Station 42361 - Auger - Garden Banks 426

[JenBayles]

And of course! Sheila Jackson Lee is front and center in the current mayoral press briefing...

[opera ghost]

having just been through Gustav, my thought and prayers go out to those of you west of me.
My uncle is in western Houston but he didnt evacuate so I hope hes going to be ok. Hel ives several miles west of the Galleria in a very nice neighborhood. do you think he will be alright there?

It sounds like he could be within a couple miles of me. We plan on riding it out. We're scared by sure that we don't have to worry about surge- only wind- and we're in a well built structure so we'll be fine.

You should spend the rest of tonight looking up resources on here and other websites about how to ride out a storm, particularly where you will have no water or electricity for possibly weeks.

If you think you can just hunker down and in a few hours it will be gone and over, that would be a major mistake.

You mistake me- I've got a safe room, a week of food/water, and I'm generally prepared. Been a storm watcher for years now. =)

[haml8]

shifted 10 miles east

So, what does this mean for my area? Port Arthur/Beaumont area.

It has, but remember those models were run earlier PRIOR to the little WEST jog that it has done over the past few hours. Before I am jumped on this was exactly what Gene Norman said on Channel 11.. The NHC is keeping an eye on it and we will see what that means... At least that is what I took away from it..

[stormy1970al]

It is amazing that we are far away here in Mobile area and we are getting winds up to 35mph. It has picked up all day. A lot of the low lying areas are flooded and the Mobile Bay has covered the old causeway. The Gulf of Mexico is flooding Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, and Dauphin Island.

Here are some pictures from the area
http://www.myfoxgulfcoast.com/myfox/

[O Town]

Check out the loop, you can see the inner wall disappear and toward the end of the loop looks like a larger one about to take over.

[terrapintransit]

Check out the loop, you can see the inner wall disappear and toward the end of the loop looks like a larger one about to take over.

Good call O...It does appear that way right now

edited to remove quoted image - mod

[CronkPSU]

what the??? that mimic gif looks like the storm is headed right for louisiana

[curtadams]

Look how monstrously big that eyewall is now! If the center goes into Galveston as predicted the NE eyewall will come in at the TX-LA border!

That enormous gap in the W wall pretty much nixes any chance of significant strengthening IMO.