ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sean in New Orleans]

I think Ike may be a victim of upwelling, but, with that said, that has nothing to do with storm surge. It is going to be really unreal, IMO.

[cycloneye]

TXZ149-152-165>167-120930-
/O.CON.KSHV.HI.A.0001.080913T0000Z-080914T0900Z/
CHEROKEE-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
930 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WIND WATCH
FOR PART OF DEEP EAST TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHEROKEE...NACOGDOCHES...ANGELINA...
SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SABINE COUNTIES IN TEXAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...SOUTHEAST
OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR
12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 954 MB.

...WINDS...

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS MEANS WINDS OF 60 TO
75 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 90 MILES AN HOUR COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.

...INLAND FLOODING...

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICAN IKE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
AND NORTH LOUISIANA AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 AM CDT.

[JenBayles]

These TV folks are SERIOUSLY making me angry! I'm getting calls from friends and family saying, "The line is going to go east of us in the morning so I'm not doing anything. We're out of danger."

Thanks so much you TV idiots for focusing so heavily on the line instead of the CONE!

[Sanibel]

West side filling out and thickening.

[rainman]

I've been watch the trough since this morning. The southern extint hasn't moved much at all...still in western New Mexico. Further north, leading edge was in in western CO this morning, and looks like it might have cleared the state.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

Also, ridge is holding firmly over Ike.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Bottom line, in this amateur opinion Ike may come in a little south of the projected path.

Western Edge of the Ridge is weakening. 12z 500 heights at lake charles, new orleans, and jackson were 590, 590, 591. at 0z tonight they lowered to 589, 589, 590.

[Innotech]

These TV folks are SERIOUSLY making me angry! I'm getting calls from friends and family saying, "The line is going to go east of us in the morning so I'm not doing anything. We're out of danger."

Thanks so much you TV idiots for focusing so heavily on the line instead of the CONE!

its been so long since a real threat to Houston has manifested I think people aren t taking it seriously and it has me concerned. Louisiana folk are pretty well versed in what can happen and they know to get the hell out of the way now. thats a good thing for the future.

[haml8]

These TV folks are SERIOUSLY making me angry! I'm getting calls from friends and family saying, "The line is going to go east of us in the morning so I'm not doing anything. We're out of danger."

Thanks so much you TV idiots for focusing so heavily on the line instead of the CONE!

I feel the same way... a friend of mine just called me from here in Katy and said, ahhh the line moved to the east we are on the winpy side of the storm.... ugh.... I just let him talk..

[yzerfan]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

Depends on the type of oak. A live oak that's had any dead branches properly removed is actually a pretty wind-tolerant tree. Some other species of oak don't do nearly so well. Laurel oak deals with wind pretty horribly for one.

[shah8]

Well, the 'cane does look like an eye...eyelids, iris, eyelashes and all...

[HouTXmetro]

Ike looks like he is really picking up speed.

[Steve]

Just got smacked with a nice feeder band down here in the Bayou (a hair up from Larose). This is from 10 or so minutes ago:

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/pinpointsouthshore640.html

Soaked and cold (as is my brew.)

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS has shifted a tad south.

You can see the latest in the model thread.

[tolakram]

Here's a shorter mimic java loop. You can better see the direction. The reason LA looks so close is because the center of this storm is incredibly large.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_25.html

[Tireman4]

The 00z GFS has shifted a tad south.

You can see the latest in the model thread.

When are you coming back home (Spring) EWG? LOL

[Ptarmigan]

These TV folks are SERIOUSLY making me angry! I'm getting calls from friends and family saying, "The line is going to go east of us in the morning so I'm not doing anything. We're out of danger."

Thanks so much you TV idiots for focusing so heavily on the line instead of the CONE!

I would wait til Friday as WXMan57 said. I don't think Ike will be a major hurricane, which is a good thing. I have noticed hurricanes that undergo rapid intensification do it at night, while we sleep. Hopefully, Ike is not doing that.

[jasons2k]

These TV folks are SERIOUSLY making me angry! I'm getting calls from friends and family saying, "The line is going to go east of us in the morning so I'm not doing anything. We're out of danger."

Thanks so much you TV idiots for focusing so heavily on the line instead of the CONE!

ANd just as importantly, it's a CURVE not a line:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... ERVAL=next

[Ptarmigan]

I feel the same way... a friend of mine just called me from here in Katy and said, ahhh the line moved to the east we are on the winpy side of the storm.... ugh.... I just let him talk..

Being on the "wimpy" side is no picnic either. New Orleans was on the "wimpy" side of Katrina and guess what, it flooded.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

starting to wonder if this will even intensify at all.

[jasons2k]

I'm starting to think myself Derek this will just sustain itself right until LF.

[RL3AO]

It would be pretty crazy for two storms to spend over 36 hours each in the GOM in Late August/Early September and not get stronger and maybe actually weaken.