ATL: IKE Discussion

[funster]

Looks like very deep convection is erupting in the area around the center(south and east side)

[img][/img]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

Seems to be getting a bit bigger again too.

[PTPatrick]

Actually these wobbles west could prove to be disaterous. When it was trending north there was a better chance the bay would at least be on the western eyewall. And given that models seemed to back off the turning north of Ike...I think the track over the middle of Galveston could be exactly what we get, and that surge will be devastating to galveston and the bay. Also, seems like if the western trend were to continue then the chances of downtown houston being in the eastern eyewall are better as well.

[RL3AO]

A couple dropsondes and the VDM maybe support 90 knots.

[El Nino]

VDM says 95 kts, not far from a cat3

[Steve]

Bad-*** squall just blew through here. Sheets of heavy rain, gusts well into the 40's. Heard some clanging gutters and seeing a few transformers blow up the bayou.

[PTPatrick]

The surge issue at the heads of Bays is highly under-talked about I think. I can remember with George hit Pascagoula and the official storm surge was reported at only 11 ft or something, but based on the water line at our house, at the head of a bayou, the surge was actually 15. This was confirmed after elevation was remeasured post Katrina. I think it was compounded by the fact that highway in pascagoula sort of acts as a levy, which allows the water pile even more in that particular area. People who have never seen the wet side of a storm probably arent aware of this.

EDIT: and PS, Georges was have the size of Gustav and about the same strength when it hit, and still managed a 15 foot surge.

[Sanibel]

My guess is this better symmetry might finally allow the winds to catch up to the pressure overnight and enter category 3.

I agree that this west trend will make the harder side worse for Houston.

[cycloneye]

Almost due west in the last two fixes.The gree line is the 10 PM Advisory track.

[CronkPSU]

95 FL or surface???

that would just be like Ike to start intensifying when all of us thought he wouldn't

[Pebbles]

I have seen dry air mentioned on this forum a lot lately... and despite explaining what is needd for dry air to cause weakening, we still see the same wrong info posted time and again

without shear, dry air cannot penetrate the core

Derek,

Certainly you looked at visible satellite imagery quite a few times on Wednesday. It was very apparent that dry air was being entrained into Ike from the west. The IR didn't show it well because there was some thin cirrus overhead, but it was quite evident on visible satellite imagery. You've mentioned this enough times that I'm going to see if I can find a good vis sat image from yesterday to show as evidence.

Of course, you're only saying that dry air means nothing w/o shear, and you're not necessarily saying that shear was not present yesterday. However, you seem to be implying that dry air has had NO effect on Ike, an implication with which I disagree.

Or maybe the unique situation with the outer eyewall being so far out from the inner eyewall, or some other dynamics of what's been an unusual core, may of changed dynamics a bit.. allowing even a slight bit of sheer to interfere with the ERC? I'm not going to even going to pretend I know WTH I'm talking about.. Just throwing ideas out there for you guys to possibly discuss.

Honestly the big gulps of dry air has just been glaring at us from the sat loops all day, and I have heard what you said... but it's still irking me. Even all you pro met's seem very surprised by the make up of this storm.

[WxGuy1]

I have seen dry air mentioned on this forum a lot lately... and despite explaining what is needd for dry air to cause weakening, we still see the same wrong info posted time and again

without shear, dry air cannot penetrate the core

I would consider this dry air entrainment, much like we saw with Ivan and many other storms in the Gulf through the past several years. It had a more symmetric appearance to convection before this time, so this is a degraded appearance:

[Stormcenter]

Ike will be one that the mets here and in the NHC will make plenty of studies about its unique track and about its eternal struggle to organize one inner core.

So very true.

[shah8]

Well, it's putting on a convective burst, that's for sure...

I don't know if it means anything, though

[WxGuy1]

Man, that rapid expansion of outflow in the western Gulf is pretty impressive. With the rate that is going, the outflow from Ike is going to cover the entire GoM in several hours! When's the last time a Gulf of Mexico hurricane had outflow that covered nearly the entire Gulf?

Cloud tops are now cooling again and it looks like convection near the center is on the rise. Whether this is good or bad is unknown (see some posts by another ProMet above about why this may inhibit intensification).

I continue to think that the major headline for Ike will be the surge. I also have a hard time believing that it will have no strengthened much at all since leaving Cuba if it doens't do so by landfall. I mean, environmental conditions for intensification seem to be fair to good (not as good for rapid intensification, but for some gradual intensification), so it does seem like some internal dynamics and organization issues are inhibiting further deepening. Regardless, the radius of maximum winds right now are well removed from the center, so the highest surge may will be some ways northeast of the center. Again, though, I have to think that it will tighten up sometime.

[Praxus]

Up almost 10 mph from last update...

[jinftl]

On the flip, how often do we see a cat 2 storm with the potential for a 20' or 25' surge? That is nuts!!!

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.

>>It would be pretty crazy for two storms to spend over 36 hours each in the GOM in Late August/Early September and not get stronger and maybe actually weaken.

Dynomat?
------------------------
We're seeing some near TS conditions this evening down my way after some tidal flooding throughout NWFL, AL, MS and SELA this evening. Not bad for a storm as far away as Ike currently is from me.

Steve

[HurricaneHunter914]

Almost due west in the last two fixes.The gree line is the 10 PM Advisory track.

That movement south of the track is gonna be very crucial. Especially if it continues for another hour. And now the wind speeds put him as a possible high end
cat-2/low end cat-3? Oh boy, I'm praying for myself and everyone else here.

[Sanibel]

Nautilus shape now with dry slots. A slow here we go! Keep watching.

[shah8]

Seriously though, wind is also a problem because it's going to be blowing for a loooooooooong time in some places.

[CronkPSU]

dang Ike, as soon as we get Derek to say it won;t intensify you defy him (and logic)

and then intensifying right during the sat eclipse as well!