ATL: IKE Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

For anyone in Houston, here is a link to see what kind of sustained winds you will get based on zip code.
http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/

That is handy.

Zip Code: 77014
Max Sustained Wind Speed
Forecasted for this Zip Code:
70 mph

Zone Evacuation Status:
77014 not in Evacuation Zone

Historical Max Sustained Winds
1983 - 73 mph (Alicia)
1932 - 85 mph (Unnamed)
1915 - 83 mph (Unnamed)
1900 - 100 mph (Unnamed)

[PTPatrick]

Wow...just foun out my cousins live in Kemah on Nassau Bay/Clear lake near Lyndon Johnson Space center, an the other cousin is in Seabrook spitting distance from the water. Looked on the map and Seabrook is almost surrounded by water. SO GLAD THEY LEFT...

[HouTXmetro]

Is it just me or has Ike dramatically gained speed in the last few frames? Looks to the west too.

[funster]

Maybe Ike found one of those warm eddys and got a little excited.

[serenata09]

Is it just me or has Ike dramatically gained speed in the last few frames? Looks to the west too.

What radar are you looking at HouTXmetro?

[CronkPSU]

[PTPatrick]

Greys really starting to pop on IR, Funktop also showing greens near the center. And Just when I didnt think it could get bigger...it looks like it is.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn-l.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ike is gigantic!



He fills pretty much the entire Gulf. That is pretty amazing!

[Texas Snowman]

Another thing to consider - although I'm not sure if Ike's large size will mitigate this - is what Joe B often refers to about landfalling Texas hurricanes.

If I understand that completely, due to the way that they approach the coastline, frictional effects sometimes seem to "tighten up" storms. I wasn't paying that much attention to hurricanes back when Alicia came ashore (was in high school) so I can't comment on a storm directly affecting Houston/Galveston, but it does seem to me as if Claudette and Dolly both "tightened up" a bit at landfall.

[TTheriot1975]

Can someone post where the high pressure is right now? The current steering maps

[WxGuy1]

Up almost 10 mph from last update...

Yes barring anything unforeseen in the next hour, the intermediate advisory should have Ike at 110mph (unless they find anything stronger between now and then).

One problem with that, however, is that there is ONE data point amongst many, many others that still suggest that MAX surface winds are only in the 80-85 kt range. All the SFMR data, and even reduced FL data, suggest that max winds are not yet up to 95 kts. I know the NHC sets advisories for maximum surface winds, and they tend to have winds that are only found in 0.0001% of the storm (ok, that may be exaggerating, but most of the time, the "maximum" surface winds are only found in a very, very small portion of the storm and affect only a very, very small area). I think, if nothing else, this validates the intensity that Ike has been at (according to the advisories) for a while now. When today did recon ever find SFC winds to support 100 mph sustained? I think there were a couple of 80 kt SFMR readings, but the vast, vast, vast majority of data still suggest that Ike's likely maxing out at 100 mph.

[AZRainman]

The MSL charts show mean sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval), 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval), and accumulated precipitation (color fill, see colorbar for intervals).

[PTPatrick]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFWV.JPG


DRY AIR IS GONE IN FRONT OF IKE...

[CronkPSU]

[CronkPSU]

should be in the SAT eclipse right now

[Rod Hagen]

That movement south of the track is gonna be very crucial. Especially if it continues for another hour.

Its been a bit south of the forecast track for several hours, HH914. (Or rather, it has been travelling west faster than forecast and north at about the forecast rate for much of the time, giving a generally more southward track.)

Cheers

Rod

[Stormcenter]

Is it just me or has Ike dramatically gained speed in the last few frames? Looks to the west too.

He may be starting to accelerate a bit to 15mph.
The primarily westward motion has continued.....interesting.

[Texas Snowman]

Noticed that about the dry air a few minutes ago, it does appear to be gone.

And as for that NAM, that's about as worst case scenario as it can get, I guess.

Look at the windflow direction into Galveston Bay, piling up surge into Kemah, Clear Lake, etc.

[PTrackerLA]

Ike is such a strange storm. For it's massive windfield, you would expect to see numerous rainbands impacting the coast. We have a few squalls racing across south LA at the moment then hardly anything is seen on long range Slidell radar for hundreds of miles. Also it would have to turn NW quickly to get back on track, looks like the impacts in my area won't be too bad tomorrow if this trend holds. Not so good for Houston though.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes

[HurricaneHunter914]

That movement south of the track is gonna be very crucial. Especially if it continues for another hour.

Its been a bit south of the forecast track for several hours, HH914. (Or rather, it has been travelling west faster than forecast and north at about the forecast rate for much of the time, giving a generally more southward track.)

Cheers

Rod

I find it funny that the NHC adjusted to the East when he was already south of the forecast points. They were probably going off the 8pm model plots though. They'll probably shift back to the west at 5.