ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

Instead of true Fujiwhara orbiting I think we might see Ike pull more north as if Hanna was a trough or Low. No guess on impact to Hanna if Ike really tail-ends it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Instead of true Fujiwhara orbiting I think we might see Ike pull more north as if Hanna was a trough or Low. No guess on impact to Hanna if Ike really tail-ends it.

I think Ike may suck in some of Hanna's moisture and continue
hauling west based on the ridge that is steering both systems...
but I am no expert...

I say that Ike will suck in Hanna's moisture given the sheer
momentum of Ike (Mass * Velocity integrated into 3D)

Hanna has a large size orientation like a cold front almost,
but Ike may just be too strong to obey Hanna's flow.

[canetracker]

Instead of true Fujiwhara orbiting I think we might see Ike pull more north as if Hanna was a trough or Low. No guess on impact to Hanna if Ike really tail-ends it.

I think Ike may suck in some of Hanna's moisture and continue
hauling west based on the ridge that is steering both systems...
but I am no expert...

Was wondering about Hanna's effect on Ike too. Hanna sure looks pretty sick in comarison to Ike.

[Sanibel]

I think Ike may suck in some of Hanna's moisture and continue
hauling west based on the ridge that is steering both systems...
but I am no expert

I don't think even the experts can guess the (potential) Fujiwhara on this. Ike and the ridge might just push Hanna out of the way faster as the total affect.

Hanna has that massive monsoon trough-like feature going for it.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I still see feeder bands, I think the "A" word property is a bit farther out.

[Emmett_Brown]

As crazy as it seems, i think the GFDL is on to something. The southward plunge into Hispaniola shown in the latest run is likely a very deep Ike being driven south by strong northerly upper level winds that are the outflow of massive Hannah.

[MortisFL]

Looks like the models overall want to "go fish" with this one...

What models are you looking at?

[fci]

The South FL media is going to have a field day tomorrow if the track remains the same.

As they should.

[UpTheCreek]

Instead of true Fujiwhara orbiting I think we might see Ike pull more north as if Hanna was a trough or Low. No guess on impact to Hanna if Ike really tail-ends it.

I think Ike may suck in some of Hanna's moisture and continue
hauling west based on the ridge that is steering both systems...
but I am no expert...

Was wondering about Hanna's effect on Ike too. Hanna sure looks pretty sick in comarison to Ike.

That's some image right there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The South FL media is going to have a field day tomorrow if the track remains the same.

As they should.

With that current NHC track and possible category 4+ intensity- they should. More
coverage means more preparation time.

[fci]

I think Ike may suck in some of Hanna's moisture and continue
hauling west based on the ridge that is steering both systems...
but I am no expert

I don't think even the experts can guess the (potential) Fujiwhara on this. Ike and the ridge might just push Hanna out of the way faster as the total affect.

Hanna has that massive monsoon trough-like feature going for it.

Can any Pro Met comment on what they think the Fujiwara would do with Hanna and Ike?
I see lots of comments from amatuers guessing what they think might happen.

What about the experts?
How do you interpret the effect?
Do you think it might come into play??

[Nimbus]

Just wobble watching tonight. Looks like Ike wobbled a little west and may come in south of the old prog points on the floater image. (if those are accurate forecast points)

It will have to be one fast building ridge to miss hanna and catch Ike. The G IV missions that fly when Ike is approaching the Bahamas should tell all.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

As crazy as it seems, i think the GFDL is on to something. The southward plunge into Hispaniola shown in the latest run is likely a very deep Ike being driven south by strong northerly upper level winds that are the outflow of massive Hannah.

aye indeed, the outflow is possibly the source of the shear. Also Im not seeing fuji as the storms are over 600nm from each other and hannah is booking nw at 14. They'll likely miss.

[cpdaman]

The South FL media is going to have a field day tomorrow if the track remains the same.

As they should.

yes they should and so should the media all the way thru the carolina's and down thru hispanola, Ike appears like it will be one to be reckoned with, it likely to be a major at landfall, especially if it stay south it looks like it ramp up to a 4 toward the coast. those bahama/fla strait waters are like steroids for a hurricane.

[gatorcane]

The ridge is huge because it has caused Hanna to move from E at 5 mph this morning to NNW at 14mph...in a matter of 8 hours...

[gtsmith]

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

It passed 6 of the 7 steps. I'm guessing the fail was on eye size.

I'd love to learn more about this test and what it is...any links?

[Patrick99]

I think Ike may suck in some of Hanna's moisture and continue
hauling west based on the ridge that is steering both systems...
but I am no expert

I don't think even the experts can guess the (potential) Fujiwhara on this. Ike and the ridge might just push Hanna out of the way faster as the total affect.

Hanna has that massive monsoon trough-like feature going for it.

Yeah, I don't understand why, as I'm not a meteorologist, but I think the synoptics are kind of complicated right now and won't really go as you would normally think they would. Usually, if I see a northward heading tropical storm right out in front, and a hurricane coming up behind it, I think the hurricane recurves well east of where the tropical storm is going north. That doesn't seem like it's going to be the case this time. I guess the surging ridge just shoves Hanna out of the way like it's nothing.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The ridge is huge because it has caused Hanna to move from E at 5 mph this morning to NNW at 14mph...in a matter of 8 hours...

I agree. The ridge is huge also because it is making Ike move so fast 18 mph.
And the ridge is only going to get bigger. Gator I am Feeling a significant
threat possible.

[johngaltfla]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

[gatorcane]

The ridge is huge because it has caused Hanna to move from E at 5 mph this morning to NNW at 14mph...in a matter of 8 hours...

I agree. The ridge is huge also because it is making Ike move so fast 18 mph.
And the ridge is only going to get bigger. Gator I am Feeling a significant
threat possible.

Nah I'm not very worried yet...plenty of time for recurve here.....

A little worried yes.