ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

Great photos. I'm sure some people would say put it in the obs thread, but mostly people don't visit that. And those observations are as good if not better than any satellite or radar IMHO. Thanks again gt. Great work on behalf of your fellow posters.

Steve

[Clipper96]

I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.

Everything depends upon the behavior of the big Texas cut-off system.

[NEXRAD]

Good afternoon, all.

I apologize, but I won't be posting much more on Fay. Since I didn't get to see much from the system (other than torrential rains) here in Southeast Florida, I'm heading to Central Florida this afternoon to intercept and follow the "eye." Besides, I have a weather station setup I can use to get some good read-outs for the NWSFO's.

Jay

[Brent]

OH MY GOD! Did you guys see the video of the 'kite surfer' who challenged Fay?

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weathe ... arder.wfor

Yeah, Fay won.

I think a lot of people downplayed this storm too much.

[tolakram]

8-) Good afternoon, all.

I apologize, but I won't be posting much more on Fay. Since I didn't get to see much from the system (other than torrential rains) here in Southeast Florida, I'm heading to Central Florida this afternoon to intercept and follow the "eye." Besides, I have a weather station setup I can use to get some good read-outs for the NWSFO's.

Jay

Sounds great, have fun, take lots of pictures / video!

[CrazyC83]

8-) Good afternoon, all.

I apologize, but I won't be posting much more on Fay. Since I didn't get to see much from the system (other than torrential rains) here in Southeast Florida, I'm heading to Central Florida this afternoon to intercept and follow the "eye." Besides, I have a weather station setup I can use to get some good read-outs for the NWSFO's.

Jay

Have fun and stay safe!

[Clipper96]

Rain-shield continues to sink south of Orlando, even as the eye continues northward. - Implying tightening pressure gradient?

[vbhoutex]

Eye appears to be only drifting due north now.
Trough appears to have separated on satellite.

Yep. Lets see how long this lasts.

1 hour movement 8.5nm at 010 degrees. Only about 1/2 knot slower but heading 010 vs. 028 of earlier.

With everything else considered, do you fell like Fay could be trying to make the turn a lot earlier than predicted or is she just slowing due to the torugh starting to lift out?

[NativeFloridaGirl]

8-) Good afternoon, all.

I apologize, but I won't be posting much more on Fay. Since I didn't get to see much from the system (other than torrential rains) here in Southeast Florida, I'm heading to Central Florida this afternoon to intercept and follow the "eye." Besides, I have a weather station setup I can use to get some good read-outs for the NWSFO's.

Jay

Good luck!! And thank you. You're posts were extremely valuable.

~Beth~

[Sihara]

Thank you for the explanations. So divergence at the upper levels involves thunderstorms that will affect Fay - this is one of the most fascinating storms to watch, seems to want to defy all forecasts and logic.

Our area sat right in the center of the cone all weekend, to be completely missed when Fay decided she had a mind of her own. Can't help but wonder what she'll do next.


Btw - I liked the photos, too - thanks for posting.

[RL3AO]

Upper Level Divergence map

[Scorpion]

Thank you for the explanations. So divergence at the upper levels involves thunderstorms that will affect Fay - this is one of the most fascinating storms to watch, seems to want to defy all forecasts and logic.

Our area sat right in the center of the cone all weekend, to be completely missed when Fay decided she had a mind of her own. Can't help but wonder what she'll do next.


Btw - I liked the photos, too - thanks for posting.

Don't think you're done yet. I think she has another surprise in store for you guys.

[senorpepr]

Just a friendly reminder that these charts are chugging along as Fay crosses Florida...

[MiamiensisWx]

Thank you for the explanations. So divergence at the upper levels involves thunderstorms that will affect Fay - this is one of the most fascinating storms to watch, seems to want to defy all forecasts and logic.

Our area sat right in the center of the cone all weekend, to be completely missed when Fay decided she had a mind of her own. Can't help but wonder what she'll do next.


Btw - I liked the photos, too - thanks for posting.

Clarification:

Divergence is the movement of wind (of various speeds) at different levels. Upper level divergence can be influenced by features such as adjacent shortwave troughs (i.e. an upper level jet streak), upper lows, etc. It does not originate from thunderstorms.

Hopefully, I helped...

Miami

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm glad the worst of Fay missed me and made landfall south and moved
well east of Tampa Bay, but I do kinda wish for a little rain...

Is there any chance of rain or thunderstorms forming to my
northeast and rotating into Tampa Bay? Some rain would be nice.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

Fay is a very fickle lady .. oh where will she go next ? On a side note my wife went to get supplies last night and came back with a case of water and 2 bags of salty chips HA!

... Wow 10,000

[Category 5]

OH MY GOD! Did you guys see the video of the 'kite surfer' who challenged Fay?

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weathe ... arder.wfor

Fay 1 Kitesurfer 0.

This is the kind of stupidity that helps cause loss of life in tropical cyclones. Hopefully he lives to learn from this.

[leaf blower]

Cool!

[paintplaye]

Cool!

You know it could just be a wobble but on that last frame or two there is defiantly a turn to the north.

[cpdaman]

OH MY GOD! Did you guys see the video of the 'kite surfer' who challenged Fay?

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weathe ... arder.wfor

Fay 1 Kitesurfer 0.

This is the kind of stupidity that helps cause loss of life in tropical cyclones. Hopefully he lives to learn from this.

we got kite surfers lined up and down the beach in palm beach county right now

my guess was he was inexperienced and this would be a time that only the best may try such acts of insanity