ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

the resources that will be needed to begin to restore power after ike will take a multi-state effort....once winds die down, there will first need to be an assessment of damage and a plan of attack...then power lines can start to be worked on....first in hospitals and places like that....if the restoration process is anything like it was in south fla after wilma...it will be slow and may literally go street by street esp towards the end, and for those unlucky few...house by house...all depends on extent of damage to grid or individual lines. Plan for the worst, hope for the best....but 1-2 weeks is not going to be uncommon...or the worst.

those who evacuated who don't live in surge zone will miss the wind part but will more than likely be returning to no power unless plan/able to stay away till power is restored. You will very much have the post-ike experience....and a sudden acute awareness of exactly when the sun goes down at night.

68kts (78mph) sustained winds at buoy 42361, which is 135nm (155 miles) WNW from the center of Ike. Cat 1 winds at that distance is pretty absurd. Last advisory pegged hurricane force winds "only" out to 115 miles.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

That is just nuts. In addition to the coast and Houston proper, there is going to be plenty of tree damage in SE Texas in places like Conroe, Huntsville, etc.

I know they've told people to hide from the wind and shelter where they are in such places, but having traveled in that forested area a lot, I can forsee a lot of trees smashing down on and around houses...and maybe a few unlucky fatalities.

[Nexus]

G-11 05:00z



Previous:

[TSmith274]

Army Corps of Engineers is watching the levy situation in N.O. and will close the canal gates if need be. Water rising on Lake Pontchartrain. I don't think they expect any widespread flooding though.

They sure have closed a lot of floodgates around New Orleans. Made my drive home a little longer than usual.

[Nexus]

68kts (78mph) sustained winds at buoy 42361, which is 135nm (155 miles) WNW from the center of Ike. Cat 1 winds at that distance is pretty absurd. Last advisory pegged hurricane force winds "only" out to 115 miles.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Anemometer height: 122 m above site elevation

Any idea on reduction %?

[WxGuy1]

if that accurate....150 miles out equals Carla size...

Note that the ob ~140 mi NW of the latest VDM center fix is at a level of 122 m above sea level. In other words, the winds down at 10 m are likely weaker and are likely still only Tropical Storm-force. Regardless, it is a testament to the size of Ike.

[Texas Snowman]

Now that is looking like a classic GOM hurricane.

Only thing missing is the eye.

I hope Ike isn't going to pull one final surprise.

[PTPatrick]

There are AT LEAST 20 skyscrapers in dowtown houston over 500ft tall....so while its not a true measure of surface wind....its applicable to the situation

[superfly]

Now that is looking like a classic GOM hurricane.

Only thing missing is the eye.

I hope Ike isn't going to pull one final surprise.

No, not really. You can clearly see the moat. With the moat so large, it will take Ike a long time to contract its dominant eyewall down to a manageable size.

[Cyclenall]

This very well could be the worst category 2 hurricane the US has ever seen if it doesn't become a major before landfall. The storm surge will be obviously horrendous. As posted somewhere else, I have a feeling that the ultra long period of time of TS to CAT1 force winds will be unkind and do a awful amount of damage. I can't imagine how massive the power outages will be after this.

The size, monster.

[AZRainman]

Only thing missing is the eye.

I hope Ike isn't going to pull one final surprise.

Strange phenomena lately with pinhole or no eye with low pressures, even in the WPAC.

Have no idea what to make of it, and have yet to see a comprehensive reason for it.

More current sat images here:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

[Texashawk]

Looks like its getting bigger.

I don't see how it can get much bigger. There's almost no water left that's not covered.

[PTPatrick]

GFDL west end of Galveston at 115 knots
UKMET West end of Galveston
GFS around Freeport
CMC High Island(east side of Bay)
HWRF High Island(east side of Bay)


These are the 0z runs out so far...HWRF seems crazy...initializes as a low end cat one...and brings it in at cat 2.
CMC seems to always be alittle right of most models
GFDL now back on the strengthening bandwagon

[bighaben]

Wow, this storm is the gulf of Mexico right now.

I should be in bed right now, I gotta work tomorrow for the hurricane rush. I live north of Houston, and am a tad worry, but I just wanna say I enjoy reading your guys comments, and a lot of times, despite the constant back and forth talk, that's it much better then getting forecast information from the local news channel.

[jinftl]

freeport vs high island landfall would make big difference for surge for locations inbetween

GFDL west end of Galveston at 115 knots
UKMET West end of Galveston
GFS around Freeport
CMC High Island(east side of Bay)
HWRF High Island(east side of Bay)


These are the 0z runs out so far...HWRF seems crazy...initializes as a low end cat one...and brings it in at cat 2.
CMC seems to always be alittle right of most models
GFDL now back on the strengthening bandwagon

[RattleMan]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

KATRINA IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

...
...
...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120557
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM. AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
78 MPH...126 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.


Hurricane winds a smaller radius but TS winds a larger radius than Katrina.

[Pebbles]

There have been some people callin now for years to make a scale that goes along with the SS scale for surge. There really is no reason NOT to have 2 different number.. For heavens sake people comprehend hi/lo temps. They can handle a this is a Cat 2/4 storm (Cat 2 winds/Cat 4 surge).

This storm once again shows why such a system should be put in place.

[Nexus]

G-11 05:30z



Previous:

[jinftl]

don't forget the difference in storm cat though....katrina hurricane windfield was not only slightly bigger...but the actual winds in there were stronger

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

KATRINA IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

...
...
...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120557
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM. AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
78 MPH...126 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.


Hurricane winds a smaller radius but TS winds a larger radius than Katrina.

[TSmith274]

There have been some people callin now for years to make a scale that goes along with the SS scale for surge. There really is no reason NOT to have 2 different number.. For heavens sake people comprehend hi/lo temps. They can handle a this is a Cat 2/4 storm (Cat 2 winds/Cat 4 surge).

This storm once again shows why such a system should be put in place.

I agree 100000%

[superfly]

GFDL west end of Galveston at 115 knots
UKMET West end of Galveston
GFS around Freeport
CMC High Island(east side of Bay)
HWRF High Island(east side of Bay)


These are the 0z runs out so far...HWRF seems crazy...initializes as a low end cat one...and brings it in at cat 2.
CMC seems to always be alittle right of most models
GFDL now back on the strengthening bandwagon

Uhhh...

HWRF initialization is correct, it was 85kts at 00Z. GFDL initialization pressure is bunk and is probably the reason it intensifies it to a strong cat 3, but it still landfalls as a low cat 2 (88 kts).