ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jinftl]

At this rate, fay won't rest until she can menace as many coastal areas in the southeast and gom as possible....hopefully her bark is worse than her bite in all cases and she just goes down as being more of a menace than a beast.

Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.

I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now.

[Stormcenter]

Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.

I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but no hurricane in the last 50 years if ever has made landfall on N.O. from east to west riding along the upper GOM coastline. That in itself speaks volumes.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

I think it's paramount to not scrutinize every (VERY) short term movement. I'm specifically referring to wobbles. The actual short term (and long term) movement is NE. Based on the NHC five day archives and model guidance, Fay has been consistently moving faster than progged; if you extrapolate its forward speed and NE heading from its current location, it suggests the TC will exit the Florida east coast slightly south of Cape Canaveral (between the cities of Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach). 500 mb-850 mb and 700-850 mb streamline analyses support this estimate as well. Soundings and 500 mb data still indicate SW wind vectors aloft immediately north of Fay, so the NE movement should continue over the next ~6 hours. In fact, when you compare the current data with the 12Z operational GFS initialization, heights at Nassau, Bahamas (east of Fay) may be slightly lower than progged, but the general pattern evolution and set-up's minor details are generally pegged nicely by the GFS.

Fay's faster (than expected) NE movement harbors implications for the prospects of a Gulf threat. Firstly, Fay will be slightly farther north over the western Atlantic, so it may not threaten the Gulf as it turns back to the west. Therefore, I believe the operational GFS' depiction of a Gulf entry seems less probable. However, I also believe some models may be biased slightly too far north with Fay over the western Atlantic, especially when you consider the fact that the H5 shortwave is slightly less deeper than progged (again) and the ridging over the upper Plains is stronger. Overall, I would personally suggest a path from Cape Canaveral to the Atlantic east of Jacksonville, followed by a west turn and landfall near the Florida/Georgia border and an inland track north of Saint Marks, Florida.

By the way, there is something to be said for those who classify Fay as a TC that defied "logic." Fay did not defy logic; the synoptic set-up controlled and dictated its movements. Synoptic set-ups (which influence TCs' speed) and the TC's intensity (in relation to the set-up at all levels) often result in erratic tracks. I can remember several additional perplexing TCs, including Gordon 1994 and MANY others. Don't blame the models or the NHC, too; in fact, if you compare the models on Fay's first day as a TS to the evolving set-up, more than a few members/variations (excluding the GFDL, HWRF, and others) correctly depicted the presence of a covoluted set-up. This includes the initial shortwave. Later, models began to pick up on Fay's west turn toward the long range (after the initial north turn), though they indicated the turn would occur over the Gulf. When this is compared to the preceding decades, this level of accuracy is astonishing. The accuracy of the NHC track was even more remarkable.

[Steve]

>>I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now.

Many people from the Coastal Carolinas to those living in Louisiana and Mississippi have been talking about it on the Fay models forum. You'd have to dig around that thread (136+/- pages) for a little more talk about the future.

Steve

[hiflyer]

She is about 70 miles south of KMCO still trucking on about a 10 degree heading....if no turn to the north she would pass about 30 miles to the east of the field....using grlevel3 radar.....that visual photo up thread is impressive....looks better now than she ever has.

[NFLnut]

Cool!

You know it could just be a wobble but on that last frame or two there is defiantly a turn to the north.

Sorry. FAY ain't turning "NORTH" for a while. That LOW pressure front angling across Florida from approx Tampa to just south of New Smyrna is controlling any sudden northward moves. And thank God for that front. Just north of Orlando, there is hardly any wind and we've only gotten about two or three short (maybe 5 minutes each), very light mists of rain since about 10:00am. That LOW pressure front is doing a number on the north end of FAY!

[HURAKAN]

[paintplaye]

Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.

I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but no hurricane in the last 50 years if ever has made landfall on N.O. from east to west riding along the upper GOM coastline. That in itself speaks volumes.[/quote]


Yes but this storm is not an usual storm just like every other storm this season. I personally think that everyone from Texas to Florida needs to watch this thing from a landfall. It all depends on how far south this thing makes it in the gulf.

[paintplaye]

Cool!

You know it could just be a wobble but on that last frame or two there is defiantly a turn to the north.

Sorry. FAY ain't turning "NORTH" for a while. That LOW pressure front angling across Florida from approx Tampa to just south of New Smyrna is controlling any sudden northward moves. And thank God for that front. Just north of Orlando, there is hardly any wind and we've only gotten about two or three short (maybe 5 minutes each), very light mists of rain since about 10:00am. That LOW pressure front is doing a number on the north end of FAY!

I strongly disagree. I think the ridge is building back and Fay is starting to feel the effects. I mean just look at the radar it is not going the same direction it was a hour ago.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes but this storm is not an usual storm just like every other storm this season. I personally think that everyone from Texas to Florida needs to watch this thing from a landfall. It all depends on how far south this thing makes it in the gulf.

What defines a "usual" storm?

Personally, since many other TCs have been erratic, I'm not sure if you can technically make that statement...

[Ivanhater]

Seems we have a ENE wobble..the more the easterly wobbles, the sooner she will find water again..

[storms in NC]

No they have it going back over Fla and Ga and Al. I know when I see it last night I when WOW who would have thought. Okay NHC did. Big shame no rain for SC and NC.
Mom told me something to day and she may be right. TX needed rain got 2 storms Fl need rain in spots it got Fay She said all the storms have been low no really bad one. She said maybe we would be next. That would be cool. But not in time for the farms that have all ready lost there crops for the summer. Corn will be high this year. All feed dog food cat horse on and on. Going to be somthing to see where she goes next. For real

[cycloneye]

I see a small wobble NE very slowly.

[SoupBone]

Correct me if I'm wrong and feel free to delete if this is off topic but I believe that the East to West storm would be the 2nd worst scenario for New Orleans of course taking intensity into account. We still have a few days to see where she will go but it might interesting if anything even close to that scenario play out. Right now I'm just enjoying the show and hoping all you Floridians stay safe.

[paintplaye]

Yes but this storm is not an usual storm just like every other storm this season. I personally think that everyone from Texas to Florida needs to watch this thing from a landfall. It all depends on how far south this thing makes it in the gulf.

What defines a "usual" storm?

Personally, since many other TCs have been erratic, I'm not sure if you can technically make that statement...

Yes but what I was trying to say is that nothing is out of the question really.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

From a tropical nothing that was not even supposed to snag our attention, to the most watched show, complete with devoted following, and even more episodes on order, I now dub thee... FAYWATCH 2008!

If you look closely enough, you may even see Pamela Anderson running in slow motion, dragging this storm all over Florida!

I really just hope that this thing doesn't go into reruns!

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"][quote="SoupBone"][quote="jinftl"]Something to keep an eye in the coming days...models notoriously flip flop, esp. that many days out. The real-time and more immediate threats are no doubt front and center now. Way too soon to sound any kind of alarm for New Orleans...too many variables...and thankfully not every storm...even in the N.O. area...will be a katrina each time.

[quote="SoupBone"]I believe the latest EURO brings her in near the LA/MS border which is close enough to New Orleans. I don't see why this hasn't been talked about at all on here.[/quote][/quote]

I agree we are still 5+ days out even if it heads straight over to the LA/MS border. I just wonder how there hasn't been more discussion as to her eventual departure from Florida. Although I can see the Floridians really have their hands full right now. [/quote]

The NHC does not "officially" have Fay going back into the GOM.....as of now.[/quote]



Bingo...and until they start buying into this scenario I'm not biting one bit...despite the criticism the NHC takes IMO they are extremely efficient and very seldom make monumental miscalculations...I realize that it makes for great fodder on the board but IMO it is going to more closely the GFDL model and make another landfall in S. Ga or S. Carolina.

[Sabanic]

Correct me if I'm wrong and feel free to delete if this is off topic but I believe that the East to West storm would be the 2nd worst scenario for New Orleans of course taking intensity into account. We still have a few days to see where she will go but it might interesting if anything even close to that scenario play out. Right now I'm just enjoying the show and hoping all you Floridians stay safe.

An East to West entry would be the worst case scenario for anyone along the northern Gulf Coast

[cpdaman]

miamiensis how come we wouldn't look at the 200-700 mb levels over east florida for her steering since she appears to be deep enough

3 hours trends would seem to show the upper high pushing a little westward over florida, no? with the perhiphery of the ridge still SSW/NNE

[TheBurn]

Definitely see some kinda movement NW at the tail end...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html