ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

Here's the latest map of Ike's wind field. Still rather disorganized. Not much hurricane force wind west of the center. Hoping to go through the west side here in Houston:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

[sphelps8681]

It seems funny that when I was a kid growing up in the 70's in Houston I never recall ever evacuating for a Hurricane.

I live N. of Bmt and gettting last minute supplies yesterday, the consus was it seemed not very many people were leaving. We decided to stay as well.

[keithy joe]

Here's the latest map of Ike's wind field. Still rather disorganized. Not much hurricane force wind west of the center. Hoping to go through the west side here in Houston:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

I expect the yellow banding to expand round the entire core just before landfall with the red hurricane force gradients slimming out slightly and shifting more to the ENE of the eye wall

[Rod Hagen]

The strongest winds are in the northern semi-circle. Ike can pass 50-70 miles south of Houston and still rake the area with 80-100 mph winds.

Indeed, southmdwatcher. Serious winds are also going to arrive long before many expect them, given the size of the windfield, if they are focusing on the forecast time for "landfall".

[physicx07]

Here's the latest map of Ike's wind field. Still rather disorganized. Not much hurricane force wind west of the center. Hoping to go through the west side here in Houston:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

TS force winds to 275 miles NE of center!

[hial2]

I didn't see it posted (looked a few pages back) but Houston has decided to tell residents to stay put: http://tinyurl.com/4aumgf

Maybe , given the apparent "trial and error" approach, Houston should open its mind to sending a fact finding mission to somewhere that clearly really knows how to do these things well, and has done for a long time. Like Cuba!

Cheers

Rod

Yes, Rod...history shows how tyrants move the masses,huh?...

Cheers

Mario

[Rod Hagen]

Here's the latest map of Ike's wind field. Still rather disorganized. Not much hurricane force wind west of the center. Hoping to go through the west side here in Houston:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

That is from a few hours back now, wxman57. Be interesting to see whether the structural changes over the last few hours have made much difference.

[Rod Hagen]

Yes, Rod...history shows how tyrants move the masses,huh?...

Cheers

Mario

I suspect it may have more to do with perceptions of what one has to lose by moving , and the likelihood of crime while you are away, Mario, but I wasn't trying to make a political statement. Somehow there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the way these things get approached on the US coast of the GOM at present. I'm sure that clearer guidelines wouldn't hurt at all.

Let's agree to focus on the storm for the moment, though, and I apologise if I raised an issue that caused offence inadvertently. Over in Australia we probably have less sensitivity to such things than you have over there.

Cheers

Rod

[physicx07]

Watching ABC news, looks like water (it's high tide anyway) is climbing up the Galveston seawall already.

[AZRainman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
429 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

[Sonica]

Watching ABC news, looks like water (it's high tide anyway) is climbing up the Galveston seawall already.

Hope the ones that stayed are seeing that too and getting out!

[Solaris]

My latest 2cent:

*Dry air still finds its way into the center though it's less than earlier

*Convection improved significantly during the last 2 hours


Overall, if you compare to yesterday the symmetry of the storm got definitely better, it isn't that loopsided anymore and the good looking outflow features haven't diminshed.

IMO Ike is doing here its final effort to strengthen to a MAJOR, so the next 12 hours gonna be key.

Anyway, if it doesn't, because of its huge size (advanced windfield and storm surge), it's simply a very dangerous storm. In addition to that, that it's projected to hit a very populated area.

Cheers

[shah8]

Huge eye seems to be trying to form, from the south around again.

NHC track is unbelievably scary. Forcasting a tropical depression to hit Detroit? Even if it's extratropical, it's still a gigantic amount of energy to hit a city!

[bob rulz]

Huge eye seems to be trying to form, from the south around again.

NHC track is unbelievably scary. Forcasting a tropical depression to hit Detroit? Even if it's extratropical, it's still a gigantic amount of energy to hit a city!

Extratropical storms tend to be worse than tropical depressions with wind.

[weatherwindow]

yesterday afternoon someone posted a link to houston network tv feeds...does anyone still have it...thanks for your help....rich

[shah8]

Reading the recon thread is frightening. 150 mile diameter + of hurricane winds? That DWARFS Katrina.

[AZRainman]

yesterday afternoon someone posted a link to houston network tv feeds...does anyone still have it...thanks for your help....rich

I put them here too:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=103167

[wxman57]

Here's the latest map of Ike's wind field. Still rather disorganized. Not much hurricane force wind west of the center. Hoping to go through the west side here in Houston:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

TS force winds to 275 miles NE of center!

Yeah, but look at the hurricane force wind field - very disorganized and only right of the center.

[KWT]

Ike seems to be trying to ramp up for one last time, nearly got 18hrs to strengthen another 10mph and that shjould be do able.

The other thing, convection really is getting quite deep now.

[wxman57]

Reading the recon thread is frightening. 150 mile diameter + of hurricane winds? That DWARFS Katrina.

Not entirely true, see the HRD wind analysis. Very little hurricane winds west of center, and disorganized east of center at least as of 0130Z. In no way does this dwarf Katrina or Rita.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png