ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Looks like its starting one of its north drifts again.

So much for wobble watching...We have all turned into drift watchers...

SFT

1hr movement, toward 031 deg. at 3.1 kts

Wow slowed right down from the looks of things, still motion of 31 degrees is pretty interesting, still heading towards the Atlantic. I wonder how long it will have over water?

[dixiebreeze]

Keep in mind that forward speed and duration of winds can greatly enhance or decrease damage. If Fay becomes a strong TS/Category 1 hurricane and moves slowly inland near the Florida/Georgia border, areas would experience TS winds (with Cat 1 "streaks") for a sustained period of time. If a TC moves faster, damages are typically reduced over a broad area. Minimal TS winds are typically minor issues, but they produced extensive vegetative damage and some structural damage when Frances moved extremely slowly across east-central Florida.

How well I remember Frances! She uprooted a huge old oak in our backyard and laid it neatly on its side.

[MiamiensisWx]

I can't understand how people can downplay tropical storm force winds much less hurricane. I knwo when we gets winds around here of 40 to 50 MPH it's a big deal.

40 to 50 mph winds are not a big deal. Here in coastal NC we get gusts of 40-50 somewhat regularly. Notheasters in fall and winter produce sustained winds in 30's and 40's with 50's gusts and higher, and thunderstorms in spring and summer bring 40 to 60 mph winds. Heck it seems like hardly a day goes by without gusts into the mid20's or higher.
The problem with high winds is how long they stay high. Thats what causes the damage. Something is weak and after holding in the wind for just so long it finally gives way. Thats why you have more damage from tropical/noreaster systems. they blow for a day or more.
Another point to consider is that areas that do regularly have higher winds get much less damage from them as areas that do not usually get them. The reason is simple, anything that is weak got blown down last week or last month or last year.
And while say 70 mph is forcasted, most likely the only place you would see anything close to that would be in a open area or on the beach with an on-shore flow. I have worked during many hurricanes that the news were touting as having hurricane force sustained winds that were suposedly ripping right over me, and never recorded a single gust over 50-60.
But....you never know when/if that reported wind might hit you, so you better be prepared just the same.

I agree, and the last sentence is very relevant.

[Ivanhater]

Wxman, the "consensus" of your map is only about 80 miles from the gulf, still over the Florida panhandle, wouldnt take much to get back in the gulf even if you only go by that consensus

[caneman]

I don't consider myself an official wobble watcher but she looks to have just about come to a halt.

[chris_fit]

We are getting clobbered in Melbourne, does not even seem like a TS, more like a Cat 1. Went to the Beach off Eau Gallie Causeway, could not stand straight due to wind, in addition to getting sandblasted. I would estimate sustained winds over 40+mph. Driving around tons of roads are under water... Don't know how much more rain we can take here.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, on Radar it appears she has about stopped, maybe a slight drift to the NNE but only 2-3mph maybe?

[jdray]

I live in Clay County, should "only" get TS winds from Fay, but I fully expect to lose my power and phone for a while.

Flying debris is nasty enough. My house is only 5 years old, yet I will still board a couple of windows at least for protection to sleep at night if she stays the same path.


Frances and Jeanne were enough for this area. I lost power and phone for 5-7 days for each storm, plus had some minor damage to the house (sub-fascia type stuff).

Bad thing is, my office is the 16th and 17th floors of a building in downtown JAX. Worried about the damage that those buildings might take....

[jujubean]

We have had some wind and a whole lot of rain here in Melbourne today. I was wondering if Fay exits around Melbourne will the conditions worsen or be more of the same?

[Dean4Storms]

Fort Drum is getting clobbered!

[wxman57]

Wxman, the "consensus" of your map is only about 80 miles from the gulf, still over the Florida panhandle, wouldnt take much to get back in the gulf even if you only go by that consensus

Yep, that's true. Also consider that one major member of the better consensus models is the GFS. The GFS is trending more northerly. Will be interesting to see if the 00Z run continues the trend. That may shift the consensus models farther north across FL.

[CrazyC83]

For the sake of those farther north in north Florida and the Georgia coast, they need to hope the inner core falls apart in the next 4-6 hours before this emerges in the Atlantic. It only has about 40 miles to go.

[KWT]

Yep probably drifting is a better term to use now, still heading NNE as well it seems, should still reach the coast in about 12hrs though I think.

[Ivanhater]

Wxman, the "consensus" of your map is only about 80 miles from the gulf, still over the Florida panhandle, wouldnt take much to get back in the gulf even if you only go by that consensus

Yep, that's true. Also consider that one major member of the better consensus models is the GFS. The GFS is trending more northerly. Will be interesting to see if the 00Z run continues the trend. That may shift the consensus models farther north across FL.

Yep, in reality I hope it doesnt get back over water, I know you and others are tired of setting that alarm clock so early

[LaunchGal]

OMG, when is this thing going to go away? 6 more hours... 6 more hours...
Raining horizontal now. Again.
Need a pulling-out-hair icon folks.

A gift
Back on topic....

Thank you!

I've been stuck in the bad band since it slid up from the southern part of my county where a strong cell did major damage to some homes this afternoon. I'm singing a parody of Sherri Lewis' "This is the song that never ends" for Fay.

Winds aren't as bad here as they are in PB; only 25mph with gusts to 30, but I'm waiting (patiently?) to see if my area remains Fay's exit point. I'm just about radar'ed out.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Latest wv loop looks as if the high will start to impact Fay shortly. Nw flow coming down from South Carolina/Tenn. Expect to see her really slow down by early morning. Maybe some of those southerly models might be on to something. I don't see a nw movement like a lot of models show towards GA. Slow nw drift for a while then abrupt turn to the west. Of course in my non-professional opinion.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at radar, the eyewall seems to have broken on the eastern end. It could be a start of something, or maybe it will rebuild?

[tropicwatch]

I have been watching the radar loops from about 7:30 EDT to 8:15 and it appears that Fay has gone stationary between Sebring and Fort Pierce. I don't know if that is the case but it sure appears so.

Tropicwatch

[LaunchGal]

We are getting clobbered in Melbourne, does not even seem like a TS, more like a Cat 1. Went to the Beach off Eau Gallie Causeway, could not stand straight due to wind, in addition to getting sandblasted. I would estimate sustained winds over 40+mph. Driving around tons of roads are under water... Don't know how much more rain we can take here.

Howdy neighbor. You guys have been hammered for longer than me today. Hang in there, it's almost over, and please stay safe.

[deltadog03]

Wxman, the "consensus" of your map is only about 80 miles from the gulf, still over the Florida panhandle, wouldnt take much to get back in the gulf even if you only go by that consensus

Yep, that's true. Also consider that one major member of the better consensus models is the GFS. The GFS is trending more northerly. Will be interesting to see if the 00Z run continues the trend. That may shift the consensus models farther north across FL.

Hey Chris...How much in front do you see the SFC center to that radar center?? It looks like maybe 10 miles??