ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[93superstorm]

Looks more due east now?

[Extratropical1]

I love this "storm" so interesting and I love all the opinions about it expert or not.

[txwatcher91]

In 50 minutes it has moved 4.4nm to the ESE, so about 5mph over the past hour to the ESE which means water by 2am or so at the current speed and motion.

[tolakram]

I'm watching two locations. Locations in red, center of Fay in white.


Station near Melbourne, NE of the current center.



http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MAR488


and a station, looks like a ranch, east of the current center.





http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLFORTP8

[Ground_Zero_92]

:uarrow:
Good news or bad news for the Northeastern Florida Coastline and the Greater Jacksonville Merto area?

good news if you listened to steve lyons , pretty much good news for everyone

LOL NOt good news when you had 12 inches alredy today...

I second that!

[wxman57]

Wow, I have not looked at the radar in a few hours and when I do I see ESE motion.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

1hr movement 00Z-01Z 092 deg at 3.7 kts.

[deltadog03]

Pretty near Melbourne I believe Delta...but HWRF had this coming out at Vero beach and assuming wxman57 motion is correct then thats going to be very close to where it comes out, not gaining much latitude right now though which is very interesting indeed...

GFDL looks like near ft. pierce...

[KWT]

Eastern eyewall now opening up it seems, won't be long before we can't really track an eye feature all that accuratly.

Still it does look like its moving quite close to the E, how interesting and only the HWRF suggested anything close to that...

[vbhoutex]

Wow, I have not looked at the radar in a few hours and when I do I see ESE motion.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

She looks like she's desperate to find some oxygen and is trying creep back to lake O

Looks like she is spinning in place to me. Maybe she is getting dizzy? I know I am trying to figure her out!!!

[wxman57]

where did the 18z gfdl have this going out at??

18Z GFDL took it offshore at 27.8N.

[Clipper96]

I'm left wondering if the more eastward and slower movement represents the beginning of a cyclonic wobble or loop south of the ridge before the expected west track begins.

Movement recently has been southeast, so the cyclonic loop theory may be bearing out.

[deltadog03]

where did the 18z gfdl have this going out at??

18Z GFDL took it offshore at 27.8N.

AH, ok...so, near sebastian then....Looks like it may get close.

[93superstorm]

Would more east have it over open water sooner?

[KWT]

Wow, I have not looked at the radar in a few hours and when I do I see ESE motion.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

1hr movement 00Z-01Z 092 deg at 3.7 kts.

Amazing its actually losing latitude, still heading towards the water of the Atlantic but going to have another 9hrs or so at this rate before it makes it, hmmm this easterly motion is certainly interesting if it lasts more then 3hrs....

[Extratropical1]

These weak storms are harder to predict than stronger ones WHY?????

[cpdaman]

if i didn't know better it almost looks like an extra tropical transformation

doesn't look like your garden variety weakening

convection is being transfered to her perhiphery and weakening near her center

i mean we got feeder bands developing SW of naples right now! also into the bahamas

as well as thru the keys

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Observation: Over the past 2 hours the winds and rain have picked up again, they had died off after 4pm. What a crazy system, almost looks like Fay will make it back to Martin County.

[Jason_B]

These weak storms are harder to predict than stronger ones WHY?????

No expert here but I would guess because weaker systems are more easily influenced by steering currents?

[SoupBone]

REPEATING THE 900 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N...80.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.