ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RL3AO]

Would more east have it over open water sooner?

Trigonometry says yes.

[HURAKAN]

[Ground_Zero_92]

Observation: Over the past 2 hours the winds and rain have picked up again, they had died off after 4pm. What a crazy system, almost looks like Fay will make it back to Martin County.

God I hope not. Let's see if this motion persists.

[LCfromFL]

The local news here keeps comparing Fay to Dora (since the approach may be similar). Here's a link so some pics of Jacksonville after Dora visited in 1964. Scroll down to 4th image - this is where the Jacksonville Landing stands today. The bridge in the background is the Main Street Bridge (the blue bridge). If you look at the light pole in the distance, you'll see that the "river" used to be on the other side of that short wall (guard rail?). Most of the other pics I've seen of Dora's damage were at the beach (the damage to the pier and beach houses), but I think this downtown picture is pretty eye opening. Can you imagine the Landing with all that water standing in it?

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://jaxhistory.com/Dora-Main-St-Bridge.jpg&imgrefurl=http://jaxhistory.com/journal5.html&h=372&w=504&sz=96&hl=en&start=1&um=1&tbnid=jwpxLicMeDagHM:&tbnh=96&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3Djacksonville%2Bflooding%2Bhurricane%2Bdora%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26rls%3DRNWE,RNWE:2006-03,RNWE:en%26sa%3DN

egads - not sure if that long url will work or not. If not, I'll create a tiny url.

[Extratropical1]

I dont see it heading toward water Waht am I missing?? Do you have a link?

[Noah]

Noaa has her stationary right now.

[HurricaneRobert]

Are they going to have to go back and upgrade Erin from a low to a TS?

[CronkPSU]

wunderground's radar loop has it move at a pretty decent clip again..looks like due east

[Ground_Zero_92]

Looks like almost due east , almost straight to nothern St Lucie County

[Extratropical1]

Hmmmmm or a wobble

[93superstorm]

Looking at the wunderground radar is where im seeing the due east.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

[CronkPSU]

Would more east have it over open water sooner?

Trigonometry says yes.

well geography is also important since the coast slants back to the west the further north you go...there really is not that much of a difference

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Lets say this e, ese drift continues through the night and she enters the atl around the latitude she is at now. What kind of implications does this have on her future track as the high builds in? More to the north or further south? Thanks.

[Ivanhater]

I was really hoping she would be gaining more latitude, the further north she goes the less chance she gets back in the gulf..let's see if it wobbles back further north

[Extratropical1]

Yep looks due east in short term

[KWT]

Well it may be a wobble but even if it is it has just shunted the emergence zone a good deal south of where it was expected before.

NHC does say *nearly* stationary, which I suppose 3kts is really. The next 2-3hrs will show if this is a long term motion or not, the foward speed has picked up a little bit in the last 30 mins.

[Clipper96]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... R&loop=yes

Look at echoes near Orlando.

The ridge appears to be aggressively pushing south now in the mid-levels.

[feederband]

She wants back in the water.

[deltadog03]

Well, GFDL and HWRF, have fay exiting the mainland around this lat...maybe a bit south...(of what they have) very close.

[KWT]

Yeah Deltadog those two models clearly handling Fay the best right now, I was a little bit of a skeptic when i saw the HWRF exit at Vero Beach but it looks like it may have nailed it!