ATL: IKE Discussion

[fci]

Ike has been trying in some way to do this for days now....he has made it from cuba across the entire gulf...and the surge reflects this...but luckily the max winds are not as bad as they could be. i don't see a massive increase in winds taking place as he closes in on land...he is butting against the north american continent, not an island in the bahamas. soon, more and more of his circulation will be over land that is not swampy, close to another water source, etc. A cat 3 is still possible but at this point, that should not result in much of the way of additional preparation since a cat 4+ surge has been warned of for over a day and people inland should be ready for more likely than not Cat1/Cat2 conditions...even if landfall is at a Cat 3.

The latest discussion says that Ike has no organized inner core...but to this amateur it looks like he is trying to wrap around a MASSIVE eye wall from the remnants of all the others. Not typical hurricane dynamics, but Ike has never really been typical in the GOM.

I think what you have to remember about this going to a Cat 3 (if it does). Remember they are keeping it a cat 2 even thought the surface winds don't justify Cat 2 strength. We saw SL winds at around 60 and 70 mph. If this becomes a justifiable CAT 3 with CAT 3 SL winds. That represents a huge jump. Just from the stand point of last night! Am I right?

I don't think that 10 mph stronger or weaker is relevant since this looks to be mostly a water (surge) event.

[Steve]

Nasty day here in the Crescent City, but it's a cake walk in comparison. Most of central Lafourche was without power this morning as was much of Metairie. Continuous tropical storm wind gusts and rain are in the picture. Farther west is likely to be much worse. Already been a gust to 75 at Lakefront Airport and a tornado warning or two for the area.

Steve

[tailgater]

The friction of the land could be tightening up Ike's wind field already. I hope I'm wrong.

[jinftl]

It would be if you think this is a Cat 1...an upgrade to a 3 would seem huge!

Ike has been trying in some way to do this for days now....he has made it from cuba across the entire gulf...and the surge reflects this...but luckily the max winds are not as bad as they could be. i don't see a massive increase in winds taking place as he closes in on land...he is butting against the north american continent, not an island in the bahamas. soon, more and more of his circulation will be over land that is not swampy, close to another water source, etc. A cat 3 is still possible but at this point, that should not result in much of the way of additional preparation since a cat 4+ surge has been warned of for over a day and people inland should be ready for more likely than not Cat1/Cat2 conditions...even if landfall is at a Cat 3.



I don't think that 10 mph stronger or weaker is relevant since this looks to be mostly a water (surge) event.

[nashrobertsx]

anyone have the slosh model for galveston and houston? the galveston ship channel goes right into the city of houton. anyone know if they have gates on the channel?

[jinftl]

I was referencing a post...not yours at all.. that stated we are not really seeing a cat 2...the nhc has held it that high artificially

Is that why people have stayed? They don't really think it is even a Cat 2...that the NHC is inflating it somehow?

AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

What you say is in total contradiction to the NHC....they are not trying to fool us into thinking an upgrade to a cat 3 is not as big a deal as you say when they state. Maybe this is what is at issue...people are not taking the NHC and their advisories at face value?

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE.

What are you talking about? I think you completely misunderstand everything I said.

[vbhoutex]

Based on my experience with Alicia 25 years ago, by far the worst damage will be from the massive CAT4 surge expected. Wind damage will definitely be an issue well inland, but most strructural failures inland will be from trees toppling onto homes and businesses as opposed to homes or businesses lieterally being blown apart. I do not want to think what downtown will look like afterwards though with the many skyscrapes we have.

[cpdaman]

real time storm surge data live feed for anywhere in TX, LA , etc

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

already 8 foot plus rise in west central LA at "freshwater canal locks"

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Steve and Tailgater how did ya'll make out? Everything ok? Looks like this afternoon we could get some nasty conditions with a few more trees coming down and of course power outages. Sure hope there is no Rita type jog to the north to bring this closer to us at the end. BTW sure thought we would be getting a lot more rain from the southerly flow from Ike than we have had so far.

[KWT]

Surge should be starting to increase from now on given Ike is starting to make its final run towards land.

[rtd2]

latest recon

Pressure 958 in eye (11 kt wind)

MAX SFMR wind: 75 kt
(NW quadrant)

can someone factor the 11kt in the eye vs 958mb







http://www.gulfcoastnews.com/GCNkatrinaPhotosPass.htm

[HouTXmetro]

anyone have the slosh model for galveston and houston? the galveston ship channel goes right into the city of houton. anyone know if they have gates on the channel?

No Gates on the Channel to my knowledge. The Channel also feeds into the Buffalo Bayou which runs on the north end of Downtown Houston.

[WmE]

latest recon

Pressure 958 in eye (11 kt wind)

MAX SFMR wind: 75 kt
(NW quadrant)

can someone factor the 11kt in the eye vs 958mb







http://www.gulfcoastnews.com/GCNkatrinaPhotosPass.htm

956mb sounds about right.

[jinftl]

Now that landfall location is starting to become more clear....i would be curious to know the surge differences for the area that would result in say: 1) landfall 20 miles west of galveston bay, 2) landfall over galveston bay, and 3) landfall 20 miles east of galveston bay. Would it be significant enough to make a difference?

[HouTXmetro]

Intense White Convection Developing around eye

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

[rtd2]

latest recon

Pressure 958 in eye (11 kt wind)

MAX SFMR wind: 75 kt
(NW quadrant)

can someone factor the 11kt in the eye vs 958mb







http://www.gulfcoastnews.com/GCNkatrinaPhotosPass.htm

956mb sounds about right.

Thanks I didnt no if you factored up or down...

[carversteve]

Intense White Convection Developing around eye

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

And what could this mean??

[HURAKAN]

Current Monsters.

[CrazyC83]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

125 mph at what elevation?

[vbhoutex]

Hurricane surge based on 1000am track.

30 foot surge now forecast to impact BPT.

Catastrophic surge damage expected over Galveston Bay, Chambers, and Jefferson counties.

Again from HCOEM

Galveston Bay areas are looking at 15-25 foot surge. Coast Guard is now beginning operations to get people off the coast that can't get out now, per TV report.