ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[DESTRUCTION5]

She's filling in her southern half again..

[SoupBone]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

With the trop forecast points overlay it seems as though she's right on track.

Don't get me wrong when I say this. The NHC has nailed her but they must have adjusted the points because she is WAY off track to the latest point. Up until then she was dead on pretty much.

[stormy1970al]

New drinking game. A shot everytime she does something she's not supposed to.

See you all next week.

Hey if they were the case there would a bunch of drunk posters here.

[RL3AO]

Looks like it might be starting a NNE drift now in the past 15 minutes. It seems to move east for an hour then north then try NE then stall, then ENE and so on.

[Ivanhater]

New drinking game. A shot everytime she does something she's not supposed to.

See you all next week.

Hey if they were the case there would a bunch of drunk posters here.

I'm game!

[deltadog03]

Me too!!!!

[stormy1970al]

So when is Fay supposed to turn to the West (if it does)?

[Raebie]

And at this rate, I doubt the forecasts would suffer a great deal.

[RL3AO]

So when is Fay supposed to turn to the West (if it does)?

Sometime in the next 1 hour to 3 days.

[Shockwave]

Me too!!!!

NO, you got a show to do, right? That wouldn't be all that good for your viewers to see!

[deltadog03]

Not tonight!!! HAH

[tailgater]

My prediction
Fay should continue in a easterly direction until she again reaches the Atlantic Ocean at which time she will slow wind down to a tropical wave. J/J
It time for her to just GO AWAY

[LSU2001]

That eastern band really likes the warm waters it is over so it is imbalancing the system causing Fay to become structurally lopsided and wobble NE. This feeler of warm SST's ahead is keeping Fay from collapsing faster but I believe the venting is the main reason for the structure lasting so long as well as the pressure.

Yeah, it does look like she is being pulled toward the very strong convection blooming offshore. If the convection continues to build and as the structure continues to deteriorate it is possible that a new center could develop to the east under the stronger convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

Tim

[sweetpea]

New drinking game. A shot everytime she does something she's not supposed to.

See you all next week.

Hey if they were the case there would a bunch of drunk posters here.

I'm game!

Already started!!

[SouthFloridawx]

The outer bands are already moving over water. Fay will probably start strengthening again later this evening as the outer more broad circulation moves more and more over the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream.

IMO people better get used this storm being around for the next few days near or off shore Florida.

[SoupBone]

Anyone just lisen to Dr. Lyons? He just mentioned that she was way off the current track and headed east. He also mentioned she really has few options but west. Feel free to mdoify as I am obviously not quoting.

[LowndesCoFire]

I can see the headlines now: TROPICAL STORM FAY DAMPENS LABOR DAY FESTIVITIES IN ______(insert any place here).

[lonelymike]

Someone was asking about a model plot a while back. I worked up a plot of 18Z models. This time, I only took out the BAM models. All other models are in there, including many iterations of the GFDL, NOGAPS, GFS, and NAM. Pretty good agreement on not bringing Fay across Florida and into the Gulf. GFS is the only model doing that (in these plots). Question is, how far offshore does Fay get? How long is it over water?

Oh, and the timing of that NW turn varies from about 1pm tomorrow to 1am Thursday.

From what I've observed, the longer it's over water, the weaker it gets.

On your model plot Wx57 which are the most reliable models out of the bunch? Thanks for all you do on this board. Impact weather is blessed to have a forecaster of your calibur.

[capepoint]

I repeat my post of last night. I was 100 percent sure then that Fay WOULD NOT affect Capetown, South Africa. However, I don't have quite as much confidence in my forcast as I did last night.

[CronkPSU]

wxman is right, this storm has really become disorganized the past few hours and the eyewall is gone BUT it probably still looks better than it did 24 hours ago and only has a few more hours on land