ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[LSU2001]

I guess we should wait for trends... Originally it was trending West, now back East. Will there be another trend before landfall?

In my experience the models almost always shift from an east landfall to a more western landfall before coming into pretty good agreement somewhere in the middle. I personally think any point between Hou/Galveston and FLA big bend is in play.
JMHO,
Tim

[HouTXmetro]

One thing I noticed is that the BAMS models have shifted to a more W and slower heading vs earlier.

[3ABirdMan]

HWRF: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008082700-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

892 mb south of Louisiana.

GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082700-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

904 mb and destroyed the Cayman Islands.

Here I go with the questions again.........

Watching both of these loops, can someone explain what the graphics are showing is happening to the ridge over FL and the Bahamas? It looks to me like the ridge is eroding and sliding to the east, back over the Atlantic. IF that WAS the case, wouldn't that let the models also shift their tracks farther to the east, especially if there is a front approaching through TX? I'm thinking the ridge would HOLD the track into LA, whereas ar eroded ridge would allow the track to shift towards the FL panhandle?

Just trying to learn how to interpret the model runs, besides seeing a moving, blue, blob of destruction .......

Thanks for the patience!

[boca]

I guess we should wait for trends... Originally it was trending West, now back East. Will there be another trend before landfall?

In my experience the models almost always shift from an east landfall to a more western landfall before coming into pretty good agreement somewhere in the middle. I personally think any point between Hou/Galveston and FLA big bend is in play.
JMHO,
Tim

Well that covers the whole Northern Gulf coast which is safe assumption at this point in the game.

[dwg71]

3AB - there are newer versions of each of those runs (6Z) and both are farther east GFDL (mouth of mississippi) and the other is near AL/MS state line.

[KWT]

GFDL only steadily strengthens this till about 48hrs time when it really starts to ramp up Gustav in a big way, and by the time it gets close to New Orleans this could be a very powerful hurricane according to the GFDL.

[Aquawind]

Wow that is a scary GFDL! Thank Goodness it's just a dumb ole model.. Does not look good for someone in the GOM though.. There goes the dropping gas prices. I was willing to have Fay Ride up the state versus a GOM oil buster..but this looks like nobody or oil rig is safe.

[PTrackerLA]

06z GFDL actually shifted west some compared to the 00z GFDL. Which makes me feel better is that Gustav STILL seems to be hung up on Haiti and until I see some appreciable movement away from the island I won't buy into the tracks too much.

[BigB0882]

One of the guys at one of the stations (that's pretty specific, huh?) here in Baton Rouge made mention that he expects it to basically die before it hits the coast. He expect shear to tear it apart. I know he is SUPPOSED to be the expert but I haven't heard anyone mention this and I found it laughable, to be honest. Has he lost his mind or is this something being looked at? Or...is my hearing going bad?

[sponger]

That is an insane statement to make 5 days out! Every indication is we will be looking at a Cat 3 or better possibly stalling early next week. He could be right but caution not optimisim is the best course of action.

[dwg71]

06z GFDL actually shifted west some compared to the 00z GFDL. Which makes me feel better is that Gustav STILL seems to be hung up on Haiti and until I see some appreciable movement away from the island I won't buy into the tracks too much.

I did just rewatch them both and it did shift west, but it was very minor, both runs showed southeast LA.

[Stormcenter]

That is an insane statement to make 5 days out! Every indication is we will be looking at a Cat 3 or better possibly stalling early next week. He could be right but caution not optimisim is the best course of action.

Wait a minute who said Gustav could stall?

[caneman]

GFS

[KWT]

Yeah but to be fair the GFS also has this north of Cuba in about 48hrs...says it all really

[canegrl04]

Yeah but to be fair the GFS also has this north of Cuba in about 48hrs...says it all really

Yes.GFS is the model I would rely least upon in situations like this

[caneman]

Actually it isn't quite that simple KWT. As x-y-no and ronjon have noted GFS sems to have a pretty good handle on the steering mechanisms over the next several days and some of the NWS offices are mentioning this scenario so I wouldn't cast your lot with just the GFDL just yet.

[gatorcane]

Just remember models prog the ridge over the Bahamas and FL to last through Friday --- keep that in mind. The longer Gustav stalls because of land interaction over Haiti that some models may not be latching on to yet, the longer that ridge shifts eastward or breaks down.

If Gustav gets moving west more quickly then the farther left I see the track and visa versa.

[Myersgirl]

Whats up with the two left models, is that a shift?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[caneman]

Yeah but to be fair the GFS also has this north of Cuba in about 48hrs...says it all really

Yes.GFS is the model I would rely least upon in situations like this

Actually that is not true. GFS use to be refered to as Good For S___ but I believe has been one the better performers over the last couple of years but you still have to take a mix of some of the better models and not just hug one.

[vaffie]

Something caught my eye this morning. For the last couple days the tracks of all of the models have had the same slope as the BAMS/M/D. Because they are released two or three hours before the other models, it's interesting to look at them to see how models might shift in the next run. Well, the latest set, at 12Z, have changed their slope significantly--they've changed from about 305 degrees on average to 285 degrees. If the other models follow through, that could result in a major westward shift in the 12Z round early this afternoon. Anyway, just something to keep in mind.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_07.gif