ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if the hold up caused by the ULL will have any changes on her track and direction down the road

[fci]

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

[eastcoastFL]

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

i am feeling a lot more relaxed to opposed to yesterday. Maybe i wont stay up all night tonight

[jinftl]

Still forecasting Hanna to become a hurricane...there is time to watch and tweak the forecast as needed...just the fact that they are talking about a hurricane in the area of the bahamas isn't too much of a downplay...that is no doubt garnering attention by residents in all the way to here in florida.

Intensity forecasts are tough...esp when tracks such as this are not at all common so the dynamics may be an unknown.

A total downplay would be to forecast hanna to become an open wave as she approaches the bahamas..not hearing that as of now.

The NHC really seems to be downplaying the potential of this storm. I hope they are correct

[fci]

(from the 11 PM advisory)
THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.


I know I am being picky but if it approaches from the Northeast would it not be moving towards the Southwest?

I think you missed something.

OK, I am probably going to feel really dumb; but I will ask:
What did I miss??

[meteorologyman]

Well ULL has done a great job with Hanna but it may not last too much longer as most models state the shear will decrease in 12-24 hours stated from nhc.

[jinftl]

nothing is going to happen overnight that will be pivotal to a landfall forecast down the road....no need to be in 'wobble watch' mode...get some rest...it may be a long week coming up.

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

i am feeling a lot more relaxed to opposed to yesterday. Maybe i wont stay up all night tonight

[jlauderdal]

nothing is going to happen overnight that will be pivotal to a landfall forecast down the road....no need to be in 'wobble watch' mode...get some rest...it may be a long week coming up.

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

i am feeling a lot more relaxed to opposed to yesterday. Maybe i wont stay up all night tonight

very very good advice plus we have a full day of college football, hanna isnt doing anything big anytime soon

[eastcoastFL]

nothing is going to happen overnight that will be pivotal to a landfall forecast down the road....no need to be in 'wobble watch' mode...get some rest...it may be a long week coming up.

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

i am feeling a lot more relaxed to opposed to yesterday. Maybe i wont stay up all night tonight

your right!

[jinftl]

i should practice what i preach....nighty night!

nothing is going to happen overnight that will be pivotal to a landfall forecast down the road....no need to be in 'wobble watch' mode...get some rest...it may be a long week coming up.



your right!

[lbvbl]

to be honest I am pretty surprised that nhc did not shift the forecast track north at all

[Bocadude85]

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

doesnt really look like the nhc has continued its trek towards cuba.. seems they have made that sw turn more subtle and moved the track further west

[Blown Away]

I think we are 2 advisories away from seeing Hanna's forecast track start making a W or WNW turn from that SW movement. I just will be very surprised if Hanna tracks SW over Cuba. IMO, Hanna will begin the WNW-NW movement long before she makes it to Cuba.

[meteorologyman]

Here is the infrered image of Hanna and Gustav
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[lbvbl]

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

doesnt really look like the nhc has continued its trek towards cuba.. seems they have made that sw turn more subtle and moved the track further west

still, with the track they give, there seems to be little chance of a SE FL landfall

[Bocadude85]

that ULL seems to be weakening steadily now

[gatorcane]

I think we are 2 advisories away from seeing Hanna's forecast track start making a W or WNW turn from that SW movement. I just will be very surprised if Hanna tracks SW over Cuba. IMO, Hanna will begin the WNW-NW movement long before she makes it to Cuba.

Certainly this is a case where extrapolating the cone beyond the 5 days shown assuming it will just be an extension is not prudent yet is done erroneously. Given model runs beyond the 5 day cone, one would expect to see the bend back to the W and then WNW and I agree we are within a few advisories of seeing this bend.

But it would appear that the shear forecast is a good sign, if it verifies and even if Hanna makes it to South Florida, it may just be a CAT 1 hurricane or tropical storm, no picnic but better than a major hurricane.

[jinftl]

if you focus on the cone and not the black line, that may not be accurate....southeast florida actually just entered the 5-day cone....esp with a renegade track like this, i wouldn't follow the center black line.

one thing i have noticed, though, is that the steepness of the forecast track has diminshed some since early in the day..less of an inverted V and more of a sloping inverted U now....if the storm doesn't make such a sharp SW turn, that probably is not good news down the road for florida.

I don't know; all the alarmists from earlier have quieted down with the latest forecast from the NHC showing the continued track towards Cuba and a much more conservative intensity forecast due to the shear that has been talked about from the North.

Of course this could all change tomorrow but I am getting a whole lot more relaxed than earlier...

doesnt really look like the nhc has continued its trek towards cuba.. seems they have made that sw turn more subtle and moved the track further west

still, with the track they give, there seems to be little chance of a SE FL landfall

[Canelaw99]

(from the 11 PM advisory)
THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.


I know I am being picky but if it approaches from the Northeast would it not be moving towards the Southwest?

I think you missed something.

OK, I am probably going to feel really dumb; but I will ask:
What did I miss??

What they're saying is the storm will be moving from the northeast towards the Bahamian islands, the southeastern islands in the chain....not that it's moving towards the southeast....

[Recurve]

What do you think is the worst plausable case scenario for this storm is?

It not something we should entertain talking about, there's nothing productive in such a conversation. Relax, observe, see what happens.

Are you high, Captain? We should be thinking about the best plausible scenario: the circulation gets eaten by a front/ULL and never makes landfall.

This storm is not forecast to be or has in anyway signs of being 1/100th of a worst case scenario. Even Andrew was no where near a worst case scenario, and that was a Cat 5 at landfall. Every storm is not the end of the world, and such speculation does nothing but excite a the endorphins of a few nutjobs, to put it nicely.

Take Tolkram's advice.