ATL: IKE Discussion

[lbvbl]

This storm seems relatively compact as of now. Is it possible that it could grow in size over the next few days?

[gtsmith]

not for Gustav... I guarantee it was not 300 miles, probably less than 50 or so..

I understand they nailed Gustav, and I agree. I'm talking average, though. The average 5 day error is 300 miles, so the fact that they nailed Gustav does not mean they'll also nail Ike at 5 days out.

what's the adage? past performance is no guarantee of future returns...or something like that

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That's why the current track has me very nervous. Nightmare

Sorry everyone but I'm freaking out scared!!!!

Tampa, you shouldn't be scared. We have been through this many times before. Be prepared, have a plan, have your supplies, and be ready to act when the time comes. As we all know, as usual, it is a very fluid situation. I have said it before a million times...things can and will change over the next few days. Sit back and relax and enjoy the show for now. If the time comes to put your plan in motion then you do it. Heck, I should be more concerned than you considering I'm sitting on the EC of Florida.

SFT[/quote]

Thanks! True yes the track can change. Wait and see. Gonna try to relax

[Blown Away]

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

Well...let's not be revisionist. Exactly 5 days out they were putting it east of NOLA. By day 4 they hit it. Of course...there were a lot of us that hit it. We were breifing our customers (military customers) on a South of Cuba track...over the western tip...to a Terrebonne - Vermillion Parrish landfall when the NHC was moving it over northern Cuba. We were also calling for a low end cat 3 or top end cat 2 along the LA coast after it crossed Cuba as a 4.

So Air Force Met where do you have Ike going? Do you think Ike will make a CONUS landfall, if so where?

[gatorcane]

Derek Ortt's forecast track takes the bend NW but farther west.

it's going to be a long week.

[gatorcane]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.

Wxman I want to buy it but your arrow doesn't exactly match that consensus...the arrow should be more WNW than NW as you show....

and you left out the Euro and UKMET, big European models that have a good track record with these things.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.

Interesting....those models are....interesting....

[Raebie]

This consenus...how do I put this delicately...

Sucks.

[Sabanic]

I still will not be a bit surprised to see Ike in the GOM. Whether it be on the West coast of FL or further westward. Models are generally split on how much to the N they turn him, and some of the tracks would cross FL if they continued in the same direction. Still a bit too far out to believe the models will stay as they are for the next 5 days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.

Interesting....those models are....interesting....

How is that a consensus? 3 of the 6 in the cluster go NW and the other 3 go WNW at FL?

Not to mention one of our top 3 models is pounding Hati?

[wxman57]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep4.gif

Wxman I want to buy it but your arrow doesn't exactly match that consensus...the arrow should be more WNW than NW as you show....

and you left out the Euro and UKMET, big European models that have a good track record with these things.

I think the arrow matches up well with the consensus, certainly not a track at southern FL. I left off the UKMET because it was so far to the east of the other models, turning it out to sea well east of the Bahamas. European data isn't published where we can plot it. But the EC trend is definitely east. Current EC takes Ike to near Miami then north-northeast to Hatteras.

Clearly, no one is sure just where Ike will make the north turn. My money is on a track east of Florida, though.

[Air Force Met]

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

Well...let's not be revisionist. Exactly 5 days out they were putting it east of NOLA. By day 4 they hit it. Of course...there were a lot of us that hit it. We were breifing our customers (military customers) on a South of Cuba track...over the western tip...to a Terrebonne - Vermillion Parrish landfall when the NHC was moving it over northern Cuba. We were also calling for a low end cat 3 or top end cat 2 along the LA coast after it crossed Cuba as a 4.

So Air Force Met where do you have Ike going? Do you think Ike will make a CONUS landfall, if so where?

I have stated that I feel it will be within 100 miles either side of a Floyd track. Because of the angle of the coast and the angle of the movement of the storm...one little delay makes a big diff due to the oblique angle. Best guess right now would be the Carolinas after skirting the coast of FL.

[gatorcane]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep4.gif

Wxman I want to buy it but your arrow doesn't exactly match that consensus...the arrow should be more WNW than NW as you show....

and you left out the Euro and UKMET, big European models that have a good track record with these things.

I think the arrow matches up well with the consensus, certainly not a track at southern FL. I left off the UKMET because it was so far to the east of the other models, turning it out to sea well east of the Bahamas. European data isn't published where we can plot it. But the EC trend is definitely east. Current EC takes Ike to near Miami then north-northeast to Hatteras.

Clearly, no one is sure just where Ike will make the north turn. My money is on a track east of Florida, though.

Thanks for explanation...my money is on east of Florida also....

[Just Joshing You]

Someone posted earlier that it failed 1/7 annular characteristics and it was probably because of the small eye? Well, the eye is surely getting bigger now.

[ConvergenceZone]

The GFDL model seems to be an outliner here....Hmm, wonder what it's latching onto.

[Ivanhater]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.

On closer inspection of that consensus wxman, to be fair only the TVCN, TVCC, TCON. and AVNI have the angle of your arrow, the rest of the consensus TCNN, GFDL, OFCO, CGUN, HWFI, CARQ all have to flatter NHC angle...just pointing it out..back to the Republican convention...

[Just Joshing You]

With the amount of storms that have hit Haiti and Cuba, I'd actually put some thought into the outlier! lol

[HURAKAN]

Too early to tell in my opinion, if tomorrow the shift continues, then I jump in the bandwagon.

[artist]

I just made a plot of the better consensus models (included GFDL/HWRF/GFS) to demonstrate the trend they're taking. The NHC track is in brown. Note that the consensus is for a rather sharp turn near the Bahamas that the NHC track has yet to indicate. I think that the NHC will just slow the track down overnight and not commit to a turn yet. That's what they typically do when they're not sure.

On closer inspection of that consensus wxman, to be fair only the TVCN, TVCC, TCON. and AVNI have the angle of your arrow, the rest of the consensus TCNN, GFDL, OFCO, CGUN, HWFI, CARQ all have to flatter NHC angle...just pointing it out..back to the Republican convention...

I think it is important to note that all of them that are further east were run later than the ofco and the GFDL, maybe that is the difference?

[haml8]

:uarrow:
Start of bad joke
Gator fans in SoFL may want to let the Hurricanes(UM football) win the game this weekend over your beloved Gators or else Ike may throw a major temper tantrum...
End of bad joke...
In all seriousness I hope Ike becomes a Fish storm before even nearing anyone....Prayers sent upwards for a miracle...

Haha Gators better not lose to the "Canes" Dont want the season to be over this early for them.

On that note I will forecast that Ike will recurve out to sea.

"Hurricanes don't recurve on accident or by fate, they recurve in fear of the shear force Tebow will bring upon them if they come on shore!"