GoneBabyGone wrote:Let's hope it doesn't split the difference and turn north later than expected into New Orleans.
Too close for comfort, and not for NOLA
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GoneBabyGone wrote:Let's hope it doesn't split the difference and turn north later than expected into New Orleans.
gatorcane wrote:TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either:
Lifesgud2 wrote:gatorcane wrote:TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either:
Gator,
Meaning what. Is this reliable? Its really unbeleivable how often the tracks change. One hour, panic, the next, hour oh, dont worry the storm is going south and into the gom. SE FLA is spared? I dont get it..
gatorcane wrote:So it looks like HPC and TAFB call for a SE Florida hit in their 12Z guidance....
they must be seeing something we don't....
probably the left bias in the models just because Ike has a WSW vector component at the moment. they are probably expecting the 18Z and 00Z to shift right.
Ed Mahmoud wrote:The Euro, with its landfall near Lake Charles, is a clear outlier. I smell a Miami to Destin double landfall myself, but, I haven't unofficially made it unofficial yet. As an amateur, I can't officially make it unofficial.
I do see a couple of the 12Z ensemble GFS members that see Ike in the Gulf ( link to PSU individual members), but most seem to support the operational GFS. The GFDL shows the turn as well, and the GFDL has been semi-consistent.
Remember, four runs in a row Euro saw Ike as the second coming of Gloria, so it is prone to mood swings.
My daughter had minor surgery today, I have been at the hospital, and I think I'll take a nap now.
Brent wrote:gatorcane wrote:TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either:
That looks to be exactly based off the 5am track(made at 8am)
gatorcane wrote:So it looks like HPC and TAFB call for a SE Florida hit in their 12Z guidance....
they must be seeing something we don't....
probably the left bias in the models just because Ike has a WSW vector component at the moment. they are probably expecting the 18Z and 00Z to shift right.
Stratosphere747 wrote:Look for another slight shift to the W from the NHC with the next package.
GreenSky wrote:
MOST OF THOSE MODELS ARE GARBAGE...I.E. LBAR
I believe the NHC focuses most on GFS, followed by GFDL, EURO, UKMET, and NOGAPS.
By the way, UKMET and NOGAPS have also been garbage in the past
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