ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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Sabanic
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1081 Postby Sabanic » Fri Sep 05, 2008 2:52 pm

GoneBabyGone wrote:Let's hope it doesn't split the difference and turn north later than expected into New Orleans.


Too close for comfort, and not for NOLA
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Re:

#1082 Postby Lifesgud2 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 2:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either:

Image


Gator,

Meaning what. Is this reliable? Its really unbeleivable how often the tracks change. One hour, panic, the next, hour oh, dont worry the storm is going south and into the gom. SE FLA is spared? I dont get it.. :grr:
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#1083 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 2:54 pm

So it looks like HPC and TAFB call for a SE Florida hit in their 12Z guidance....

they must be seeing something we don't....

probably the left bias in the models just because Ike has a WSW vector component at the moment. they are probably expecting the 18Z and 00Z to shift right.
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Re: Re:

#1084 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 2:55 pm

Lifesgud2 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either:

Image


Gator,

Meaning what. Is this reliable? Its really unbeleivable how often the tracks change. One hour, panic, the next, hour oh, dont worry the storm is going south and into the gom. SE FLA is spared? I dont get it.. :grr:


its valid as of 11:53 UTC
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Re:

#1085 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 2:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:So it looks like HPC and TAFB call for a SE Florida hit in their 12Z guidance....

they must be seeing something we don't....

probably the left bias in the models just because Ike has a WSW vector component at the moment. they are probably expecting the 18Z and 00Z to shift right.



Im no Pro but im gonna say thier GFS based..
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Re:

#1086 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 05, 2008 2:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either:

Image


That looks to be exactly based off the 5am track(made at 8am)
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1087 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Sep 05, 2008 2:59 pm

The Euro, with its landfall near Lake Charles, is a clear outlier. I smell a Miami to Destin double landfall myself, but, I haven't unofficially made it unofficial yet. As an amateur, I can't officially make it unofficial.

I do see a couple of the 12Z ensemble GFS members that see Ike in the Gulf ( link to PSU individual members), but most seem to support the operational GFS. The GFDL shows the turn as well, and the GFDL has been semi-consistent.

Remember, four runs in a row Euro saw Ike as the second coming of Gloria, so it is prone to mood swings.


My daughter had minor surgery today, I have been at the hospital, and I think I'll take a nap now.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1088 Postby mattpetre » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:02 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:The Euro, with its landfall near Lake Charles, is a clear outlier. I smell a Miami to Destin double landfall myself, but, I haven't unofficially made it unofficial yet. As an amateur, I can't officially make it unofficial.

I do see a couple of the 12Z ensemble GFS members that see Ike in the Gulf ( link to PSU individual members), but most seem to support the operational GFS. The GFDL shows the turn as well, and the GFDL has been semi-consistent.

Remember, four runs in a row Euro saw Ike as the second coming of Gloria, so it is prone to mood swings.


My daughter had minor surgery today, I have been at the hospital, and I think I'll take a nap now.


Hope your daughter is well Ed and hope any prognostications of TX landfall fall short and your TX season over wins this year...
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Re: Re:

#1089 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:02 pm

Brent wrote:
gatorcane wrote:TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either:


That looks to be exactly based off the 5am track(made at 8am)


It is. I doubt he has checked the updated graphic package.
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#1090 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:07 pm

To be fair though Ed for most runs the GFS has this recurving before ven the Bahamas, the ECM has latched onto the more westerly idea for a little while and the models are starting to fal into line. I suspect the ECM is overdoing the ridge whilst the GFS is overdoing the trough digging down...makes you ridea possible but the ECM shows a pattern very similar to Rita...
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#1091 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:09 pm

Remember, four runs in a row Euro saw Ike as the second coming of Gloria, so it is prone to mood swings.

Hmmmmmm.. I won't go there. :lol:

Didn't The Euro show a number of Florida whacks run after run with Hanna?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1092 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:11 pm

Look for another slight shift to the W from the NHC with the next package.

Image
Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1093 Postby tpr1967 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:17 pm

I have a question for one of the mets. Will getting the recon data from recon and feeding in to
the 2 tropical models GFDL and HWRF improve there track and intensity forecast from here on
out.Thanks.
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#1094 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:17 pm

Yep those models are really hinting at a possible Cuba landfall now on the northern coast near Havana like the ECM and UKMO suggests, the GFDL still a southern outlier but very soon may not be if the trend continues... :eek:
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Re:

#1095 Postby Comanche » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:So it looks like HPC and TAFB call for a SE Florida hit in their 12Z guidance....

they must be seeing something we don't....

probably the left bias in the models just because Ike has a WSW vector component at the moment. they are probably expecting the 18Z and 00Z to shift right.


WSW vector has been the forecast for days now, not a new development. IMO, the confirmation of the turn has the models showing Ike missing the weakness and headed west.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1096 Postby GreenSky » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:21 pm

Wow. Just wow!

What happened to the days where the Carolinas and east coast of Florida received the hurricanes.

Recent trends seem to indicate those days are expired.

I can never recall such a time where almost everything became a GOM threat.

This forum should be relabeled "Talking Gulf of Mexico"
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1097 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:23 pm

I know I'm not out of the woods yet here in Hollywood. When I left this morning for work I noticed models southward trend. I come home and see the cone head south. The trend is my friend. :roll:
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1098 Postby GreenSky » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:24 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Look for another slight shift to the W from the NHC with the next package.

Image
Image



MOST OF THOSE MODELS ARE GARBAGE...I.E. LBAR

I believe the NHC focuses most on GFS, followed by GFDL, EURO, UKMET, and NOGAPS.

By the way, UKMET and NOGAPS have also been garbage in the past
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1099 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:26 pm

Strat747: Your model comparison is refining into a Donna hook but maybe a little more offshore which would put us on the hard side with more overwater for the core.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1100 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:29 pm

GreenSky wrote:
MOST OF THOSE MODELS ARE GARBAGE...I.E. LBAR

I believe the NHC focuses most on GFS, followed by GFDL, EURO, UKMET, and NOGAPS.

By the way, UKMET and NOGAPS have also been garbage in the past


Thanks for the advice. ;)
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