ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Wthrman13]

Down to 45 kts on 10pm advisory. Still forecasting a hurricane. Not likely.

I agree, the inner core is in the process of collapsing. However, I think it will be back over water before it can completely collapse, unlike Isidore, which stayed over the Yucatan for at least a day after its inner core collapsed. There still appears to be a remnant "inner" eyewall on radar. Indeed, convection is already starting to re-intensify a bit over the center. Surface obs still show decent convergent cyclonic rotation. We'll see.

[LowndesCoFire]

My area forecast from NWS Tallahassee
Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Huh???

[Sanibel]

Could be moving towards water now. In between Melbourne and Ft Pierce.

Like it is trying to get over water - but the real reason is probably because the overwater bands have so much more energy they are pulling the center.

[fci]

My area forecast from NWS Tallahassee
Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Huh???

Sort of like "Clearing and Colder with rain likely and a record high expected".

But seriously, TS conditions and winds as high as 25?
Sounds like something a Miami TV Met would say!

[sgastorm]

My area forecast from NWS Tallahassee
Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Huh???

Some kind of malfunction, I think. About a hour ago, it said hurricane conditions were possible with the rest the same.

[LowndesCoFire]

Some kind of malfunction, I think. About a hour ago, it said hurricane conditions were possible with the rest the same.

Why the TS Watch for Echols and not Lowndes?

[LowndesCoFire]

My area forecast from NWS Tallahassee
Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Huh???

Sort of like "Clearing and Colder with rain likely and a record high expected".

But seriously, TS conditions and winds as high as 25?
Sounds like something a Miami TV Met would say!

Awww..maybe they're just trying to make us feel "included"...lol

[sgastorm]

Some kind of malfunction, I think. About a hour ago, it said hurricane conditions were possible with the rest the same.

Why the TS Watch for Echols and not Lowndes?

NWS Jacksonville has jurisdiction over Echols County. Looks like most of the counties served by them are in a Tropical Storm wind watch. I imagine NWS Tallahassee will put various watches up. I'd expect a flood watch at the very least.

[LowndesCoFire]

Some kind of malfunction, I think. About a hour ago, it said hurricane conditions were possible with the rest the same.

Why the TS Watch for Echols and not Lowndes?

NWS Jacksonville has jurisdiction over Echols County. Looks like most of the counties served by them are in a Tropical Storm wind watch. I imagine NWS Tallahassee will put various watches up. I'd expect a flood watch at the vary least.

Yeah we could always use the rain...as far as the wind...no thanks as it seems trees around us cant stand up to 35mph+ winds.

[Ptarmigan]

I am surprised that Fay intensified over land.

[tolakram]

Still approaching this station:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MAR488

[fasterdisaster]

Down to 45 kts on 10pm advisory. Still forecasting a hurricane. Not likely.

Disagreed.

[SouthFLTropics]

Heavy torrential rain still streaming across us here in Port St. Lucie. There is significant flooding in the area, in particular on the East side of the city. Looking at radar it looks like it may come to an end during the night if Fay keeps moving. But at this point in time I DON'T TRUST FAY!!! Stay tuned for possible video footage tomorrow if I can get my cam working in my work vehicle. I have to be out to check damage early tomorrow morning. I'm afraid the pics are going to be "interesting".

SFT

[Toyota Thundra]

This is not the track. I know nothing.

[CronkPSU]

looks like it is just about to hop over 95...real close to the ocean now

[LaBreeze]

Maybe she's sleeping with one eye open txwatcher91.

[SouthFLTropics]

Down to 45 kts on 10pm advisory. Still forecasting a hurricane. Not likely.

Disagreed.

Maybe the NHC is trying to use reverse psychology. I mean Fay has done everything opposite of what they have predicted when it comes to intensity. They predicted a hurricane before landfall and it didn't happen. They predicted weakening after landfall and it strengthened. Now they predict hurricane when it hits the Atlantic in the hopes that it will do the opposite again.

SFT

[NEXRAD]

Good evening, all. I arrived safely in East Central Florida this afternoon. So far here my 10-meter weather station has been recording steady 15 to 25 mph sustained winds with frequent 30 to 40 mph gusts (40 max so far).

From radar and satellite imagery, Fay's center is very near the Florida East Coast, southwest of Palm Bay. Recently, deeper convection has begun to fire northeast of the center and around Fay's immediate circulation. I suspect that the storm will strengthen rather quickly once it begins to move over water, perhaps reaching 60-knot intensity by midday Wednesday.

Overnight, I anticipate continued squally conditions across East Central Florida coastal counties. Conditions will improve for areas south of Vero Beach. Onshore moving squalls for Brevard and eventually Volusia counties seem to have plenty of wind-energy aloft, but there's not been much active transport to the surface. If Fay begins to deepen and additional more intense squalls form, then I expect this wind energy to readily reach the surface, producing wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph.

- Jay
(now near KSC, FL)

[PTPatrick]

0zGFS is a bit faster tonight....18 z had her off Melbourne at 60 hours whilst the 0z has her around Tampa(just north)....also NAM and GFS is good aggrement so far...and NAM moved back to the gulf rather than its earlier trip over N FL

[latemodel25]

can someone provide me with a link to these model runs or paste it on here? are they reliable sources so far?