ATL: IKE Discussion

[Cryomaniac]

It's possible that everyone left on the island will die.

As much as I want to say that that's an irresponsible thing to say, I think you may be right

[Sabanic]

To my VERY untrained eye, it looks like the bad stuff could go where the TX/LA borderline is.
Am I viewing this wrong?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

You are correct. That's where the high-res hurricane models and surge models project the worst effects will be. Quite bad enough for the Houston area, but not the worst.

Re another post on deaths:

We won't see everybody on Galveston die or even close. Even in 1900 it was "only" 10-15% of the population. The seawall will make a big difference - not by stopping the flood, but by stopping the wave action. Plus much of the city was raised. Could be quite horrific even so.

Watching Houston TV is very frightening. What has *already* happened would be a significant disaster - major flooding in beach communities; consequently I assume hundreds or thousands of buildings with major flood damage. And it's just starting.

Unfortunately we ain't seen nothing yet. Afraid it will be bad for Lake Charles area also.

[jasons2k]

Quick flash - taking a 5 minute break here --

Dr. Neil Frank was saying on KHOU altho the winds may not be Cat 4 or 5, the surge will be. I think that's good advice considerig what we saw with Katrina. Remember, the surge tends to always be underestimated with Gulf coast storms, and Ike will be no exception. Those Cat 2-3 surge maps are useless IMO.

OK, back to moving dead palm fronds into the garage and then I can FINALLY be finished

[NEXRAD]

The key for protecting a house against hurricane force winds (as opposed to surge) is to make sure the wind does not get into the house. Most structural failures from hurricane winds occur following the wind infiltrating the exterior of the house via a broken window or collapsed garage door. I saw some aerial imagery from the Turks/Caicos Islands showing severely damaged homes. Based on the damage pattern, it seemed that unprotected sliding glass doors broke and following their breaking the nearby roof and walls were compromised.

Boarding up windows and securing garage doors with extra bracing can help protect against storm damage. Also, if your house has older shingles, then they might be damaged from surprisingly lesser winds. Homes in East Central Florida with older shingles had significant shingle stripping from 60-mph winds when Hurricane Frances impacted the area.

- Jay

[bigjohn]

Guess I would prefer to be voted off the island than have my cold dead body float off the island. These people who stay behind do so because they always feel as if if it really gets bad, they will get rescued. And who pays for that rescue. All of the rest of us who pay taxes. Maybe we should require that these people be sterilized as a condition of rescue...no need to pass on such stupidity and hardheadedness to another generation by procreation.

[LSU2001]

This is just from tropical storm conditions. Imagine what Texas is going to get.

Terrebonne levees breaking and water filling neighborhoods

WWL.com Reporting

Levees are breaking and communities are taking on water in Terrebonne Parish.

Search and rescue is underway in Lower Terrebonne where the water is rising. Crews are using trucks and boats to get people out of their homes.

Watch the HTV10 stream to see the latest. Levees are breaking and officials are trying to evac people. They are saying the levels in Terrebonne are only 8 inches lower than Rita.
Tim
http://www.kfolkjun.com/htv/WatchNow/ta ... fault.aspx

[attallaman]

So basically the worst is over for Biloxi at this point? Except for some showers conditions should improve later during the day and tomorrow morning it will all be over?

Yes, based on all of the current information I'm seeing and based on the official NWSFO forecast for the area.

- Jay

Thanks. Winds here are blowing out of the ESE at 18 gusting to 52, like I said it's still quite windy here in Biloxi. Parts of our US Highway 90 which runs along the beach had to be closed early this morning because of storm surge coming out of the gulf covering the road and much of the roads in the east end of Biloxi along Point Cadet had flooded roads as did our Casino Row.

[bayoubebe]

To my VERY untrained eye, it looks like the bad stuff could go where the TX/LA borderline is.
Am I viewing this wrong?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

You are correct. That's where the high-res hurricane models and surge models project the worst effects will be. Quite bad enough for the Houston area, but not the worst.

Re another post on deaths:

We won't see everybody on Galveston die or even close. Even in 1900 it was "only" 10-15% of the population. The seawall will make a big difference - not by stopping the flood, but by stopping the wave action. Plus much of the city was raised. Could be quite horrific even so.

Watching Houston TV is very frightening. What has *already* happened would be a significant disaster - major flooding in beach communities; consequently I assume hundreds or thousands of buildings with major flood damage. And it's just starting.

I hope you are right about Galveston. Thanks for answering my question.
Jindal seems to be on top of things here, he's on TV. Hopefully SW La. has been listening and getting out of there.

[HURAKAN]

[Just Joshing You]

KHOU said Hurricane Force winds extend 200m from the North East quadrant lol.

[ROCK]

I just got back from the seawall.....it is some I have never imagine could happen....waves coming over.....Steward road impassable......me and dad save a woman you drove off into a ditch. water up to her windows. 911 refused to come get her. We got her in and took her to the causeway....That is the sacriest moment in my life. The water was rising 2-3 inches per 10 mintues. I didnt want to levae her so we took the chance.....I wont be doing that again (driving to the west end during a surge)......we were trying to make one more trip to save my families belongings but we were to late.....I have video. When I get time I can share. Might make you throw up though. Little shaky....

[NEXRAD]

Thanks. Winds here are blowing out of the ESE at 18 gusting to 52, like I said it's still quite windy here in Biloxi. Parts of our US Highway 90 which runs along the beach had to be closed early this morning because of storm surge coming out of the gulf covering the road and much of the roads in the east end of Biloxi along Point Cadet had flooded roads as did our Casino Row.

The winds will remain gusty today, but this evening when the atmosphere decouples, the winds will lessen. The tidal surge should also lessen once Ike moves farther west.

- Jay

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Deep Convection about to close off eye....Tightening up Big Time, Take Off Guys!

[NEXRAD]

Tidal surge info, as of earlier today, from NWSFO Houston...

000
NWUS54 KHGX 121639
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM STORM SURGE GALVESTON 29.23N 94.89W
09/12/2008 M8 FT GALVESTON TX TIDE GAUGE

GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER 8.3 FT AT 1048 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE GALVESTON 29.23N 94.89W
09/12/2008 M6 FT GALVESTON TX TIDE GAUGE

GALVESTON PIER21 6.4 FT AT 1048 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE GALVESTON 29.23N 94.89W
09/12/2008 M6 FT GALVESTON TX TIDE GAUGE

GALVESTON SHIP CHANNEL NORTH JETTY 6.8 FT AT 1048 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE 4 E LA PORTE 29.67N 94.98W
09/12/2008 M5 FT GMZ335 TX TIDE GAUGE

MORGANS POINT 4.5 FT AT 1048 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE 1 SE SAN LEON 29.48N 94.93W
09/12/2008 M5 FT GMZ335 TX TIDE GAUGE

EAGLE POINT 5.2 FT AT 1048 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE 7 SW HANKAMER 29.79N 94.71W
09/12/2008 M5 FT CHAMBERS TX TIDE GAUGE

ROLLOVER PASS 4.5 FT AT 1000 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE KEMAH 29.53N 95.02W
09/12/2008 M4 FT GALVESTON TX TIDE GAUGE

KEMAH CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE 4.0 FT AT 1000 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE 4 NE DEER PARK 29.73N 95.07W
09/12/2008 M4 FT HARRIS TX TIDE GAUGE

BATTLESHIP TEXAS STATE PARK HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL 4.2 FT
AT 1054 AM


1100 AM STORM SURGE FREEPORT 28.95N 95.36W
09/12/2008 M6 FT BRAZORIA TX TIDE GAUGE

FREEPORT USCG STATION 6.6 FT AT 1048 AM

- Jay

[Sabanic]

Thanks. Winds here are blowing out of the ESE at 18 gusting to 52, like I said it's still quite windy here in Biloxi. Parts of our US Highway 90 which runs along the beach had to be closed early this morning because of storm surge coming out of the gulf covering the road and much of the roads in the east end of Biloxi along Point Cadet had flooded roads as did our Casino Row.

The winds will remain gusty today, but this evening when the atmosphere decouples, the winds will lessen. The tidal surge should also lessen once Ike moves farther west.

- Jay

Jay I thought Ike was going to go North and Northeast. Is that going to be after he gets further inland?

[jopatura]

HOLY CRAP! There's a guy standing on the seawall with what looks like his five or six year old child!!!! They are trying to feel the splash.

[pablolopez26]

I apologize by the size of this photo, but its amazing how fireants can just float through the floodwaters. Please people watch out for snakes and fireants in the water!!!



if its too big just let me know, ill delete!

[tracyswfla]

I just got back from the seawall.....it is some I have never imagine could happen....waves coming over.....Steward road impassable......me and dad save a woman you drove off into a ditch. water up to her windows. 911 refused to come get her. We got her in and took her to the causeway....That is the sacriest moment in my life. The water was rising 2-3 inches per 10 mintues. I didnt want to levae her so we took the chance.....I wont be doing that again (driving to the west end during a surge)......we were trying to make one more trip to save my families belongings but we were to late.....I have video. When I get time I can share. Might make you throw up though. Little shaky....

Thank God you saved that woman. But stay outta there. Don't risk your life!!!!!!! Be safe

[jinftl]

What to expect if you experience cat 1/cat 2 conditions out of surge zone....pics from wilma in sfl....

Andrew hit Homestead with Cat 5 winds right? Right now according to http://www.houstonrunfromthewind.org they are predicting mid to upper Cat 1 sustined winds for us, around 88 mph. I imagine if Ike upgrades to a low three those winds may be in the ninties.

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?

[tolakram]

From 10:30 AM this morning, you can see the eyewall starting to build.