ATL: IKE Discussion

[dhweather]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Deep Convection about to close off eye....Tightening up Big Time, Take Off Guys!

I wouldn't rule it out, but given Ike's history and refusal to close off the western half, I doubt it will now.

[O Town]

I just got back from the seawall.....it is some I have never imagine could happen....waves coming over.....Steward road impassable......me and dad save a woman you drove off into a ditch. water up to her windows. 911 refused to come get her. We got her in and took her to the causeway....That is the sacriest moment in my life. The water was rising 2-3 inches per 10 mintues. I didnt want to levae her so we took the chance.....I wont be doing that again (driving to the west end during a surge)......we were trying to make one more trip to save my families belongings but we were to late.....I have video. When I get time I can share. Might make you throw up though. Little shaky....

woah, thats a sketchy story there.
Its time to hunker down rock! No more of that.....
Stay safe and good luck.

[xironman]

Wow,

No way did I expect that much black IR to wrap around to the NW side

[NEXRAD]

Thanks. Winds here are blowing out of the ESE at 18 gusting to 52, like I said it's still quite windy here in Biloxi. Parts of our US Highway 90 which runs along the beach had to be closed early this morning because of storm surge coming out of the gulf covering the road and much of the roads in the east end of Biloxi along Point Cadet had flooded roads as did our Casino Row.

The winds will remain gusty today, but this evening when the atmosphere decouples, the winds will lessen. The tidal surge should also lessen once Ike moves farther west.

- Jay

Jay I thought Ike was going to go North and Northeast. Is that going to be after he gets further inland?

Yes, Ike will be curving around a ridge, but the turn to the north will not occur until the storm approaches the Texas coastline at earliest. The official forecast track does not turn the storm northward until Ike is well inland over Northeast Texas. The northeast turn will occur inland, which means the system will weaken significantly by then.

- Jay

[CronkPSU]

i didn't think the eye would ever close but with that whammo jammo of convection in the NE/N/NW quads now wrapping around...

[Just Joshing You]

Eyewall will close off in t-minus 3 hour

NOT FORECAST, OPINION ONLY.

[fci]

I just got back from the seawall.....it is some I have never imagine could happen....waves coming over.....Steward road impassable......me and dad save a woman you drove off into a ditch. water up to her windows. 911 refused to come get her. We got her in and took her to the causeway....That is the sacriest moment in my life. The water was rising 2-3 inches per 10 mintues. I didnt want to levae her so we took the chance.....I wont be doing that again (driving to the west end during a surge)......we were trying to make one more trip to save my families belongings but we were to late.....I have video. When I get time I can share. Might make you throw up though. Little shaky....

Now it is time for you and your family to be safe.
Our prayers to you and the others in Ike's way.
PLEASE be careful.

[NEXRAD]

I apologize by the size of this photo, but its amazing how fireants can just float through the floodwaters. Please people watch out for snakes and fireants in the water!!!

I was measuring some wind gusts with a hand-held anemometer during Fay with water up to my ankles, and I got bit-up pretty bad by the fire-ants, and mosquitos. Good idea to have insect repellent, especially for after the storm passes, as mosquitos usually come out in force following all of the rainfall.

- Jay

[ziggylee]

Certainly Ike will mean the death of the Saffir-Simpson scale. I hope?

We badly need a better gauge of hurricane intensity/damage than what we have. Something that takes into account wind, size, surge, etc. We have the tools in place to do it.

I've lived in Houston for over 50 years---thru Carla and Alicia---and I have no doubt that this storm will be the costliest in terms of damage of any hurricane in US history. Also, there will be countless lives lost because so many people are underestimating Ike because "it's only going to be a 1 or 2".

[attallaman]

What to expect if you experience cat 1/cat 2 conditions out of surge zone....pics from wilma in sfl....

Andrew hit Homestead with Cat 5 winds right? Right now according to http://www.houstonrunfromthewind.org they are predicting mid to upper Cat 1 sustined winds for us, around 88 mph. I imagine if Ike upgrades to a low three those winds may be in the ninties.

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?

Will much of Galveston look like that tomorrow? Jim Cantore was pretty upset while on the air this morning reporting from a balcony at a Holiday Inn hotel, he couldn't believe the laid back attitude of the locals towards the storm, no law enforcement was around, he said the road should have been closed and also stressed the storm surge was going to be bad, very bad.

[tolakram]

4 hours ago:

[bayoubebe]

Rock: will be anxious to see the video. Thanks for saving that woman, now please take care of yourself.

Tim(LSU2001)--thanks for posting the video link, very interesting.

Lake Pontchartrain water will be further pushed onto land according to a local met.

[Praxus]

Does anyone else think this could be worse than Katrina? Especially after hearing how 30,000 fools stayed at Galveston...

[SunnyThoughts]

Rock, prayers and good wishes to you, and everyone on your beautiful Island. Stay safe..those material posessions can be replaced. You will be in our thoughts and prayers throughout. Good luck

[yzerfan]

Andrew hit Homestead with Cat 5 winds right? Right now according to http://www.houstonrunfromthewind.org they are predicting mid to upper Cat 1 sustined winds for us, around 88 mph. I imagine if Ike upgrades to a low three those winds may be in the ninties.

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?

My neighborhood was built between about 1981-95, and saw a long period of sustained tropical storm winds (and higher gusts) during Ivan. No major structural problems from winds, but I'd say about 1 in 8 homes ended up with blue roofs from a combination of striaght winds and trees down on roofs. (we've got tons of these shortleaf trees that fall easily, but generally cause surprisingly little damage when they go down)

[wxman57]

I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.

[funster]

Does anyone else think this could be worse than Katrina? Especially after hearing how 30,000 fools stayed at Galveston...

I hope not but it does sound like the wrong place to be right now.

[ROCK]

Certainly Ike will mean the death of the Saffir-Simpson scale. I hope?

We badly need a better gauge of hurricane intensity/damage than what we have. Something that takes into account wind, size, surge, etc. We have the tools in place to do it.

I've lived in Houston for over 50 years---thru Carla and Alicia---and I have no doubt that this storm will be the costliest in terms of damage of any hurricane in US history. Also, there will be countless lives lost because so many people are underestimating Ike because "it's only going to be a 1 or 2".

VERY TRUE....we saw people walking around on the West end....water over 3005 over ankle deep......911 was no help.....The lady kept saying she thought she had more time......Lesson learned......

[tolakram]

Convection just about wrapped around.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ible_float

[Cookiely]

Did anyone notice the huge commercial dumpster floating around the seawall? Must have been empty. Can't remember if it was behind Geraldo or a female as I was switching stations. I told my mother he was going to get knocked down by the waves and just then down he went. I think the fireman warned him but he stood their anyway. I feel heart sick at the people who didn't evacuate.