ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

People are comparing Ike to Alicia. HUGE MISTAKE.

Similar to people that compared Camille to Katrina.

Different monster people.

[jinftl]

Sounds like Ike might be Texas's version of the 2004 & 2005 wake-up to florida as far as insurance rates, coverageability, etc....not a katrina or andrew epic disaster (unless you are in surge zone...can not emphasize enough..but if you are in surge zone still and reading this....) but a financial and even political one.

I'm not so sure about the ability of a "modern" house in the Houston/Galveston area to survive. Unlike Florida and other coastal states, Texas has not really implemented improvements to the building codes in hurricane prone areas. Many houses in the Houston metro area were thrown up by big developers to the bare minimum building codes during the housing boom the last decade, and many homeowners have found numerous problems develop within months of closing - code violations, foundations, plumbing, etc. I hope I'm wrong, but I think even if we don't get Cat 3 winds, we will still see significant wind damage inland outside the surge zone. Houston has lots of trees, and in many of the new developments the trees planted were fast growing ashes, hackberries, etc.

I bought a 1955 house over a 10 year old house on the advice of my father who was an architectural engineer. The quality of the lumber (density and closeness of the grain) and the overall construction was much better in the 40 year old house, over the 10 year old house, and it had shown the ability to withstand storms in the past.

http://www.caller.com/news/2008/jun/02/ ... uotits-in/

In Texas, building codes not priority
Associated Press
Monday, June 2, 2008

HOUSTON -- Building codes in hurricane-prone parts of Texas lag behind those of other Gulf states that responded with stiffer standards after the devastating storm seasons of 2004-05.

Hurricane and disaster experts say they are stunned that Texas has done nothing to bolster building codes nearly three years after Hurricane Rita blasted its Gulf coast, the Houston Chronicle reported Sunday.

"Texas is an aberration," said Leslie Chapman-Henderson, chief executive of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, a nonprofit organization. "It's eerily quiet in the state. Why are they not having a conversation about codes?"

Florida, the gold standard among U.S. states in a rating system for building codes and enforcement, further strengthened its codes after the 2004-05 seasons. So did Mississippi and Louisiana, which adopted a statewide building code for the first time after Hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans and Rita battered its southwestern coast.

Texas, meanwhile, has quasi-mandatory codes for coastal residents, unevenly enforced codes in cities, and builder-enforced codes elsewhere. National advocates for stronger building codes say that's not a progressive approach for a hurricane-prone state.

Chapman-Henderson said the first step toward creating a statewide code would be to hire engineers from the state's universities to assess the existing quality of homes and building code enforcement. That would provide information to begin developing a uniform code. The code could have different standards for coastal and inland communities.

"This is one of the avoidable disasters," she said. "Not doing anything is the classic definition of insanity."

The idea of a statewide building code appears to have little traction in Texas. Such a plan probably would require counties to take on additional enforcement work in unincorporated areas.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said that while it's something to consider, cost will be an issue. He also says it's unrealistic to compare Texas to Florida.

"Everyone likes to talk about Florida, Florida, Florida," Emmett said. "But Texas is not a narrow peninsula sticking out into the ocean."

Florida leads the nation with an average rating of 3.5 on a grading scale from 1 (exemplary) to 10 conducted by ISO, an information risk company that primarily serves insurers by assessing building codes and enforcement standards in communities. A good rating generally lowers a region's insurance rates.

Texas scores an average of 5.5 on the ISO scale, a point worse than the national average. Houston, Baytown, Pearland and Harlingen were the best Texas cities with ratings of 4. Beaumont, which sustained considerable damage from Rita, scored poorly with an 8, Victoria with a 9, and Corpus Christi and Brownsville declined to participate in the program.

Corpus Christi has had staffing problems, a spokeswoman said, but eventually will participate.

Texas implemented some building standards along the coast after Hurricane Alicia struck the Houston area in 1983. The program requires homeowners to pay a surcharge to the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association if homes aren't up to code.

"When it comes to building homes, we need to talk about preventive measures," said Julie Roachman, chief executive of the Institute for Business and Home Safety, a nonprofit group dedicated to reducing property losses. "We should use things such as hurricane straps as selling points, not granite counter tops and surround sound."

[dwg71]

the areas up the coast some from galveston are going to be on that front right side...and close enough to the eye..that landfall point is pretty much irrelevant for them i am afraid...barring some huge change

Back to a 310-315 deg movement past hour. Still aiming for Galveston Bay but it could make another jog. A hit just east of the Bay would spare most of the homes along west Galveston Bay.

Yea Eye passage over the whole Area seems inevitable..

This is a storm that 30 miles could be a huge difference.. if the left side of the eyewall went up the right side of the bay. The people of galveston bay may not lose their homes had it gone in on the other side.

[Time Traveller]

Looking at Channel 11 Houston, it's incredible and sad how people are playing with their lives.

I totally agree. It seems most of the people they are interviewing on channel 11 are totally ignorant and even think it's fun. They are saying that it never flooded badly there before, so nothing to worry about this time.

[CrazyC83]

I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)

123kt flight level? poop where was that reported? I must have missed that. That makes it a fairly solid cat 3 does it not? With 105 to 110kt sfc winds?

123 kt FL winds at the level it was at supports 105 kt. The dropsondes support 95-100 kt. Only the SFMR supports low numbers, but I would have gone 95 kt as a blend of the data.

[bigjohn]

Certainly Ike will mean the death of the Saffir-Simpson scale. I hope?

We badly need a better gauge of hurricane intensity/damage than what we have. Something that takes into account wind, size, surge, etc. We have the tools in place to do it.

I've lived in Houston for over 50 years---thru Carla and Alicia---and I have no doubt that this storm will be the costliest in terms of damage of any hurricane in US history. Also, there will be countless lives lost because so many people are underestimating Ike because "it's only going to be a 1 or 2".

Not sure I buy into that excuse completely. People who were told to leave but stayed...and then die...did so because they were stupid and/or foolishly arrogant. Does not matter what the S/S rating is, when you are told to evacuate and you don't...your fate is all your responsibility. And if you don't have a degree in meteorology you are playing Russian Roulette with your life and the lives of those you love.

[thetruesms]

I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)

123kt flight level? poop where was that reported? I must have missed that. That makes it a fairly solid cat 3 does it not? With 105 to 110kt sfc winds?

Earlier this morning - Normally, I think that'd reduce to 100 kt at the surface, but Ike has been consistently below the normal reduction. That being said, I would have thought that it would have been bumped to 95 knots, too. Maybe they don't want to change it unless it's being made a cat3?

[funster]

1PM NHC update has Ike at 27.4 N...93.1 W
Previous coords were 27.2N 92.6W

so .2 N and .5 W.

[rtd2]

People are comparing Ike to Alicia. HUGE MISTAKE.

Similar to people that compared Camille to Katrina.

Different monster people.

True Camille killed more people in 2005 than 1969!

[HURAKAN]

Alicia:



Ike:



Anyone in the path of Ike. Alicia does NOT compare to Ike.

[6SpeedTA95]

Is it just me or over the last few hours does it look like Ike is getting his business togther before landfall?

[Derek Ortt]

URNT15 KWBC 121601
NOAA3 3109A IKE HDOB 33 20080912
155200 2751N 09206W 7511 02272 9713 +188 +158 137117 118 074 009 00
155230 2752N 09204W 7508 02280 9728 +175 +157 142121 123 075 006 00
155300 2753N 09203W 7510 02289 9764 +147 +147 143117 118 079 010 00
155330 2755N 09201W 7495 02320 9778 +148 +148 143116 117 081 008 00
155400 2756N 09200W 7507 02324 9799 +147 +146 139113 116 076 007 00
155430 2758N 09158W 7495 02348 9803 +155 +151 138110 111 069 003 00
155500 2759N 09157W 7515 02328 9813 +152 +145 141110 111 065 002 00
155530 2800N 09155W 7509 02345 9820 +157 +133 141110 110 064 000 00
155600 2801N 09154W 7509 02356 9835 +149 +141 137103 105 063 004 00
155630 2803N 09152W 7509 02359 9844 +145 +143 139100 100 064 002 00
155700 2804N 09151W 7512 02361 9850 +145 +142 143102 102 063 003 00
155730 2805N 09149W 7507 02371 9854 +146 +146 144102 103 065 005 00
155800 2807N 09148W 7509 02378 9865 +144 +144 144100 101 065 003 00
155830 2808N 09146W 7513 02378 9872 +145 +141 145099 100 064 003 00
155900 2810N 09144W 7515 02379 9874 +146 +144 147097 099 999 999 03
155930 2812N 09144W 7508 02395 9880 +146 +145 144096 097 999 999 03
160000 2815N 09145W 7512 02392 9882 +148 +145 141099 101 999 999 03
160030 2817N 09148W 7511 02393 9878 +152 +139 142096 097 999 999 03
160100 2817N 09151W 7511 02391 9880 +146 +145 141096 098 063 000 00
160130 2817N 09153W 7510 02388 9874 +148 +146 139097 098 065 002 00


123 kt FL 81 kt SFMR NE Quad

it came from the NOAA aircraft and at times, I have noticed that data is not used as much as the AF data

[ROCK]

Looking at Channel 11 Houston, it's incredible and sad how people are playing with their lives.

I saw them out there...nuts taking pictures on the seawall....people in the neighborhoods already getting water and they are just wading around in it........Mandatory evacs did not come soon enough/ was not enforced.........Galveston's mayor dropped the ball worst than Blanco.....IMO

[rtd2]

Back to a 310-315 deg movement past hour. Still aiming for Galveston Bay but it could make another jog. A hit just east of the Bay would spare most of the homes along west Galveston Bay.

wxman57,
I Agree IKE hitting east would make a huge difference.....as for the MANY wobble post I've seen in the past
NOW through landfall is when the WOBBLES START TO MATTER! not back on page 200!

[6SpeedTA95]

I am not sure why NHC did not raise the winds to 95KT based upon the recon reports (the 123KT FL and the 118MLB)

123kt flight level? poop where was that reported? I must have missed that. That makes it a fairly solid cat 3 does it not? With 105 to 110kt sfc winds?

Earlier this morning - Normally, I think that'd reduce to 100 kt at the surface, but Ike has been consistently below the normal reduction. That being said, I would have thought that it would have been bumped to 95 knots, too. Maybe they don't want to change it unless it's being made a cat3?

Yeah it has seemed to be a bit lower at the sfc than prior storms for some reason I though it was a 12 to 15% typical deduction from flight level to surface level is that incorrect?

[jinftl]

Air rescues on CNN with eye over 150 miles from shore...and winds under ts force....boy oh boy

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 121601
NOAA3 3109A IKE HDOB 33 20080912
155200 2751N 09206W 7511 02272 9713 +188 +158 137117 118 074 009 00
155230 2752N 09204W 7508 02280 9728 +175 +157 142121 123 075 006 00
155300 2753N 09203W 7510 02289 9764 +147 +147 143117 118 079 010 00
155330 2755N 09201W 7495 02320 9778 +148 +148 143116 117 081 008 00
155400 2756N 09200W 7507 02324 9799 +147 +146 139113 116 076 007 00
155430 2758N 09158W 7495 02348 9803 +155 +151 138110 111 069 003 00
155500 2759N 09157W 7515 02328 9813 +152 +145 141110 111 065 002 00
155530 2800N 09155W 7509 02345 9820 +157 +133 141110 110 064 000 00
155600 2801N 09154W 7509 02356 9835 +149 +141 137103 105 063 004 00
155630 2803N 09152W 7509 02359 9844 +145 +143 139100 100 064 002 00
155700 2804N 09151W 7512 02361 9850 +145 +142 143102 102 063 003 00
155730 2805N 09149W 7507 02371 9854 +146 +146 144102 103 065 005 00
155800 2807N 09148W 7509 02378 9865 +144 +144 144100 101 065 003 00
155830 2808N 09146W 7513 02378 9872 +145 +141 145099 100 064 003 00
155900 2810N 09144W 7515 02379 9874 +146 +144 147097 099 999 999 03
155930 2812N 09144W 7508 02395 9880 +146 +145 144096 097 999 999 03
160000 2815N 09145W 7512 02392 9882 +148 +145 141099 101 999 999 03
160030 2817N 09148W 7511 02393 9878 +152 +139 142096 097 999 999 03
160100 2817N 09151W 7511 02391 9880 +146 +145 141096 098 063 000 00
160130 2817N 09153W 7510 02388 9874 +148 +146 139097 098 065 002 00


123 kt FL 81 kt SFMR NE Quad

it came from the NOAA aircraft and at times, I have noticed that data is not used as much as the AF data

Even the AF aircraft has FL winds that support Cat 3 (109 kt FL = 98 kt surface).

[NC George]

Don't know if this has been posted, but DirecTV showing KHOU (Channel 11) on channel 361, just like they did with Gustav and a NO station. I commend them on providing this local feed nationally.

[NEXRAD]

Given what's currently happening in Galveston, even if Ike moves onshore north and east of the island, there will still be more significant surge than is presently occuring. Winds will pile water onshore up until a few hours before landfall (if Ike moves farther north and east of Galveston), and with the storm still so far from Galveston, surge is only going to continue to pile-up.

- Jay

[rtd2]

Looking at Channel 11 Houston, it's incredible and sad how people are playing with their lives.

I saw them out there...nuts taking pictures on the seawall....people in the neighborhoods already getting water and they are just wading around in it........Mandatory evacs did not come soon enough/ was not enforced.........Galveston's mayor dropped the ball worst than Blanco.....IMO

they HAD and still have Plenty of time to get out! storm is still hours offshore and most likely the roads have much less traffic on them. I cant see how this is anyones fault other than the person coosing NOT to leave. IT DOESNT TAKE LONG TO PACK A BAG AND GO