TC Bertha

[Aric Dunn]

[KWT]

Yeah but the center is actually a little to the north of the forecast point, you can clearly see that its tracking just a little to the north of the forecast point, not by much and the convection is indeed displaced but not by a huge amount, at least for the new burst that went up recently, SW side of the LLC probably is exposed though now.

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah but the center is actually a little to the north of the forecast point, you can clearly see that its tracking just a little to the north of the forecast point, not by much and the convection is indeed displaced but not by a huge amount, at least for the new burst that went up recently, SW side of the LLC probably is exposed though now.

its to hard to say exactly if its north or just south or right in line with it .. using the over lay from the ssd site.. im just saying its exposd except for sirus clouds. that burst as you can see from the images is a good distance from the center.

[KWT]

Yep I see what you mean the convection is displaced, yeah its about where I thought it was, displaced but not totally out of the way. I'd guess the center about 15.7N looking at that, still being sheared that much is clear.

[cycloneye]

Winds mantained at 45kts.

AL, 02, 2008070500, , BEST, 0, 158N, 326W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 30, 0, 75, 1012, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

[Aric Dunn]

steering

[Weatherfreak000]

18 Hours is about all this storm needs to find more favorable conditions. Tomorrow will be critical in it's survival.

[Sanibel]

Another convection burst. The center is displaced by SW shear (TUTT shear?). This is feeding the SAL layer into its SW quadrant at a time when it is coming into slightly cooler waters. Climatology is catching up with it. This will be a study in early July systems and how they track across the Atlantic.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

In my view, this TC is nearly done.

It is very likely that Bertha will dissipate well before it reaches 55-60 W. The latest satellite data and my personal analysis of the surrounding environment likely foreshadows Bertha's final fate. The system is encountering a stable boundary layer and SAL, which is indicated by the surrounding stratocumulus as mentioned. Shear is strong, and it will only continue to increase as Bertha moves closer to the proximity of the upper low in the central North Atlantic. Consequently, convection is displaced to the NE of the exposed LLC. Bertha's survival probabilities are also greatly reduced by the fact that it is a weak TC. In fact, it has been consistently hedging the lower end of the NHC's intensity forecasts. Climatology for similar July Cape Verde tropical cyclones that formed closest to Bertha's initial latitude/longitude also argues for dissipating over water. The westward trend of the models is a reflection of the fact that they're "catching on" to Bertha's weaker intensity. In a previous post yesterday, I stated that I did not expect Bertha to reach the NHC's forecast intensity of 55 (now 60) kt. I also anticipated a possible dissipation in the open Atlantic. This appears to be a very real possibility.

In other words, bye, Bertha! You set some records, but you're going to meet a slow, painful, and expected death.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ir2-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

Holding its own.

[Category 5]

Dry air is choking this thing to death right now.

[Blown Away]

Still has a strong LLC, good structure, and some convection bursting to the N. It is what is has been all day, a minimal TS over marginal SST's.

[Chacor]

Still, that's a sheared cyclone suffering under dry air and not a 45-kt storm.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

its not really shear per se.. it moving at 21 mph!!!!!!!!!!

THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH

and west now not wnw

[CourierPR]

I think it's a little too soon to be writing Bertha's epitaph. The NHC seems to agree.

[Blown Away]

From the 11pm NHC advisory: "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED A LITTLE WESTWARD BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD ALLOW BERTHA TO
RESPOND TO THE DEEPER AND MORE NORTHWARD STEERING."
THe NHC is hanging on to their recurving solution near 50-60W even though the models are trending more W, I think the next round of models trending more W will influence a NHC solution that takes a weaker Bertha more W near the NE Bahamas.

[jaxfladude]

So is the latest track as of this posting the same or a bit further south/north , I have been watching the fireworks in the 'hood....


Never mind just answered before my reply was posted....

[Patrick99]

They have that being a H by 8PM Tuesday? Man, I just don't agree.