ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

How is that a consensus? 3 of the 6 in the cluster go NW and the other 3 go WNW at FL?

Not to mention one of our top 3 models is pounding Hati?

They're all consensus models, meaning they average the other models and come up with a track that's better than any one model. I'm putting more weight on the variable corrected consensus models (TVCC/TVCN) as they allow the forecaster to modify/change which models go into the mix. A consistently bad model can be thrown out. Those are the orange tracks in the plot below. Green is HWRF. Yellow is GFS, Brown-purpleish near GFS is the UKMET.

Like I said, a turn east of Florida is not a certainty, but the trend is more east with each run.

[gatorcane]

I agree with Wxman...

I bet you the NHC just slows the 5 day point/cone with a slight nudge north of the 5 day point....

since it won't be clear where Ike will end up in the long-term..

If you loop the 5-day archive that is all the NHC has done for the past few cones...just keep the 5day point where it is at.

[wxman57]

I think it is important to note that all of them that are further east were run later than the ofco and the GFDL, maybe that is the difference?

OFCO is the NHC track, a version of it, anyway. And, yes, GFDL was run with 18Z data. 00Z data models are farther east.

[wxman57]

I agree with Wxman...

I bet you the NHC just slows the 5 day point/cone with a slight nudge north of the 5 day point....

since it won't be clear where Ike will end up in the long-term..

If you loop the 5-day archive that is all the NHC has done for the past few cones...just keep the 5day point where it is at.

I won't take that bet. I think it's a certainty. Typical NHC strategy is to indicate slower movement when they aren't sure where a storm will go. Remember Gustav's first few tracks north of Cuba directly into the ridge at only 2 mph?

[Just Joshing You]

Can some pro met explain the annular index on that 7 point scale? Apparently Ike met 6 of 7 characteristics. What does this exactly mean and will this effect the current track and intensity?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, and the thing people need to realize is that east of Florida doesn't mean east of the united states....I think that the east coast is at serious risk here if those models hold true....

[DESTRUCTION5]

How is that a consensus? 3 of the 6 in the cluster go NW and the other 3 go WNW at FL?

Not to mention one of our top 3 models is pounding Hati?

They're all consensus models, meaning they average the other models and come up with a track that's better than any one model. I'm putting more weight on the variable corrected consensus models (TVCC/TVCN) as they allow the forecaster to modify/change which models go into the mix. A consistently bad model can be thrown out. Those are the orange tracks in the plot below. Green is HWRF. Yellow is GFS, Brown-purpleish near GFS is the UKMET.

Like I said, a turn east of Florida is not a certainty, but the trend is more east with each run.

Well i hope ur right cause a Cat 4 will wipe out any shot at a Economic FL recovery...

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'm in the wxman57 camp. the trend is there. Also climo makes the odds long that mid september the ridge will not have a weakness over the long run. I am think the longer this goes, the less chance of an EC hit at all. Way too far to make the call but at least there is data to make the guess

[Air Force Met]

I agree with Wxman...

I bet you the NHC just slows the 5 day point/cone with a slight nudge north of the 5 day point....

since it won't be clear where Ike will end up in the long-term..

If you loop the 5-day archive that is all the NHC has done for the past few cones...just keep the 5day point where it is at.

I won't take that bet. I think it's a certainty. Typical NHC strategy is to indicate slower movement when they aren't sure where a storm will go. Remember Gustav's first few tracks north of Cuba directly into the ridge at only 2 mph?

I agree with both of you...I think that is exactly what will happen. They will slow it down b/w days 4 and 5 and slowly nudge it N over the next 3-4 advisories.

[NCWeatherChic]

I dont like the looks of those models!

[ConvergenceZone]

The thing to also keep in mind is that Derek mentioned in another thread earlier that it can go more westward if Ike got stronger(which it did), and perhaps those latest models didn't factor the strength of Ike into their decision...Now that Ike is stronger, we may once again see a shift back west.

[cycloneye]

They will slow it down b/w days 4 and 5 and slowly nudge it N over the next 3-4 advisories.

NHC will slow it,Ike will slowdown,or both,which will be?

[Just Joshing You]

They will slow it down b/w days 4 and 5 and slowly nudge it N over the next 3-4 advisories.

NHC will slow it,Ike will slowdown,or both,which will be?

NHC will forecast to slow it down so they can have time to figure out just where it is going. Ike won't.

[AdamFirst]

The thing to also keep in mind is that Derek mentioned in another thread earlier that it can go more westward if Ike got stronger(which it did), and perhaps those latest models didn't factor the strength of Ike into their decision...Now that Ike is stronger, we may once again see a shift back west.

This is an interesting point. Let's not jump on the northern curve bandwagon just yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

I dont like the looks of those models!

Yea, if I were you, I'd keep watching the weather. This doesn't look good at all for the east coast....Derek's forecast on the other forum(even though it's closer to Florida) is downright scary

[loxahatchee13]

If this was asked and answered on a previous page sorry for asking again but Derek is saying a stronger storm will go west and I thought with it was the oppisite that it would go north. Is the direction based on each individual storm and the current conditions?

[sponger]

As versed as I am with hurricanes, I know little about annular except they they are more frequent in the Pacific. I would love to hear anyones insight into what annular means.

[Brent]

As versed as I am with hurricanes, I know little about annular except they they are more frequent in the Pacific. I would love to hear anyones insight into what annular means.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane

[haml8]

The thing to also keep in mind is that Derek mentioned in another thread earlier that it can go more westward if Ike got stronger(which it did), and perhaps those latest models didn't factor the strength of Ike into their decision...Now that Ike is stronger, we may once again see a shift back west.

I was thinking about that after I read the TA forum this afternoon. Someone posted Dereks analysis and it was pretty much on the money so far. So if it trends west into the GOM, will it just move NW once it gets in there or will it keep trending west with that huge ridge?

[expat2carib]

Questions:

To most of the TC in invest stage, NHC had recon missions. Why not this one?

Recon data is/was used to feed at least one model. With Gustav they dropped a lot of temperature measuring equipment in the Gulf to feed one model.

As I know the first recon is planned on Friday.

I guess recon gives them essential data to predict some of the most important variables.

Why is recon not in the picture yet?