ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Bellarose]

I'm VERY much a novice, but this trend, if it stays as it is (the path on the NHC site, anyway) looks really bad for Tampa, doesn't it? Tampa would be on the east and get the nastier weather and surge? I do know that it's a week away and alot can change.

Or am I way off base on this one?

Thanks!

[haml8]

Euro 7day 500mb

[Patrick99]

I thought they liked the HWRF best. But yeah, what happened to all the surety displayed on this board just a couple days ago about how it was going to recurve east of Florida like Floyd? As I recall, many of you were rather confident and smug about that.....lol

[Stratosphere747]

Strat747: Your model comparison is refining into a Donna hook but maybe a little more offshore which would put us on the hard side with more overwater for the core.

Yeah Sanibel it does look that way from a modeling standpoint. Still far enough out and I expect some shifts once the NOAA data is ingested. I know given your location the concerns that type of track on the western side of the peninsula would have.

For the short-term the main focus is still on the Bahamas, Keys and S. Florida.

[HouTXmetro]

Is the EURO included on the multiple model graph map above? If so what is the name listed as?

[Stratosphere747]

Is the EURO included on the multiple model graph map above? If so what is the name listed as?

EGRI

[haml8]

Is the EURO included on the multiple model graph map above? If so what is the name listed as?

This is the link I used http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ clicked on the ECMWF link.. but this is also the place...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092512!!/

I don't know if this is what you were looking for..

[otowntiger]

Look for another slight shift to the W from the NHC with the next package.

I guess its true that we all see what we want to see, because if anything, to me it looks like they will either keep the 11:00 track or maybe even shift slightly back east, jmho. There are some of the models that moved more north for sure.

[HouTXmetro]

Majority of the models are showing recurve into Florida West Coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Uh, unless you are wishing this upon yourself it is VERY evident that the models have shifted today more toward a FL Straits passage and into the SE GOM.

Lets be realistic here.

[stormchazer]

Strat747: Your model comparison is refining into a Donna hook but maybe a little more offshore which would put us on the hard side with more overwater for the core.

Yeah Sanibel it does look that way from a modeling standpoint. Still far enough out and I expect some shifts once the NOAA data is ingested. I know given your location the concerns that type of track on the western side of the peninsula would have.

For the short-term the main focus is still on the Bahamas, Keys and S. Florida.

I am starting to get concerned about the dreaded "worst-case" scenario for Tampa. Cat 3-4 approaching from the SSW. Models are a long way out so Tampa people do not freak. Just seems like the clock is ticking for Tampa.

On the bright side, Tampa does have the hurricane forcefield run out of Macdill AFB. If they had not been replacing the "anti-hurricane modulator" in 2004, we would have been okay. I told them to do it in the off-season.

Sorry, back to Ike.

[Stratosphere747]

Look for another slight shift to the W from the NHC with the next package.

I guess its true that we all see what we want to see, because if anything, to me it looks like they will either keep the 11:00 track or maybe even shift slightly back east, jmho. There are some of the models that moved more north for sure.

Please don't put me in the camp that "sees what we want to see." I think you will find that I'm quite objective and I don't try and pass along anything that tries to show otherwise.


*edited by sg to fix the quotes

[Dean4Storms]

OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.

[jhpigott]

i think it would be wise for all to remember we are talking about a system that is still almost 1000 miles from Miami. Much of the guidance is clustered on a WSW-W-WNW motion thru the FLKeys. It's not going to take much of a shift south or north in the models to either send this right thru south florida or on the other hand into the GOM . . . going to be an interesting weekend for us tropical weather enthusiasts

[gtalum]

Woohoo! In the clear!


Just kidding.

[otowntiger]

Look for another slight shift to the W from the NHC with the next package.

I guess its true that we all see what we want to see, because if anything, to me it looks like they will either keep the 11:00 track or maybe even shift slightly back east, jmho. There are some of the models that moved more north for sure.

Please don't put me in the camp that "sees what we want to see." I think you will find that I'm quite objective and I don't try and pass along anything that tries to show otherwise.

Well I guess that's fair. We just don't agree on how the models have shifted since 11:00.

[Sanibel]

A cursory glance at Strat's chart says to my eye Appalachicola to St Mark's. I can't imagine the surge if that verifies.

Watch to see if the next run tightens around that same curve.

[Vortex]

18z NAM shows break in ridge right over florida which would be very bad news if this verifies for the upper keys, south florida, and points north...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[foladar]

question .. when would recon data be put into the models?

[Bgator]

question .. when would recon data be put into the models?

I think 00z.