ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

There may not be a huge deal left of Fay even if it does reach the gulf I reckon, could be down to TD status by that time IF it does bend west soon enough to reach the gulf.

[mpic]

I'm wondering, given her definite dislike for water, if going back into the GOM would cause her to fizzle out?

[KWT]

It's be ironic if that happened mpic!

Looks like the odds for it reaching the gulf have increased if its turned back to the north, will need to see whether it starts to turn back west soon.

[xironman]

She has moved a tiny bit further off shore in the past hour. Give her a little time before writing the obituary.

[chris_fit]

She has moved a tiny bit further off shore in the past hour. Give her a little time before writing the obituary.

Worst weather we've seen in Melbourne right now, just got woken up. Winds strong out of the SOUTH, so the center must be WEST (On shore) of here.... Torrential rains....

[KWT]

given the way the radar presentation has weakened its really hard to know exactly what the system is doing at the moment, seems to be nearly stationary.

[Deb321]

I would love to write her obituary after going through 3 hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 and living through the aftermath I don't want anymore

[gpickett00]

Ill go check my winds here in Satellite Beach. brb

If I had to guess I would say sustained winds from the SSW @25 with gusts to 40-45. Moderate blowing rain. Im wet.

[KWT]

Looks like its drifting a little WNW over the last hour or so though its very difficult to tell given the radar presentation is not as good as before.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Center is probably west of the storm that it currently noted at Q8 on this closeup radar:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

[xironman]

I had it by Merritt Island so Melbourne would probably have a SW, Satellite Beach would say for sure.

[KWT]

Looks like its slowly unwinding given its inland, I'm increasing not too worried even if it does make it into the gulf its going to be just a fraction of what it was before, still we will have to see a good 48hrs over the gulf has been easily enough in the past to strengthen a system very quickly, still not sure if it even gets that far however.

[Toadstool]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 200855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY
REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A
TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF
80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING
SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER
TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 28.2N 80.6W 45 KT...JUST INLAND
12HR VT 20/1800Z 28.8N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 29.3N 80.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Still going for the idea that this will not reach the gulf, though I think the turn back northward is a hint that the trough is no longer having any influence on this system and very soon I wouldn't be all that surprised if the high starts to build back.

At this rate its a doubt it even makes the Atlantic, though if it keeps up due north it will get some time over water I suppose.

[xironman]

Maybe it is just inland, I had thought it was over that bay

[KWT]

I wouldn't really use the radar other than for looking at the convective qualities of the system as the cente risn't well defined on the radar anymore, looking at the wind obs it must still be inland.

Models suggesting this will still be inland in 36hrs time by which time it will probably be a huge rain making TD looking at some of the models.

[fasterdisaster]

Please don't comment that it's already making the turn, it isn't doing anything right now. It's sitting stationary and has been that way for about 3 hours now.

[fasterdisaster]

And yes she is inland but that's the usual.

Frankly I'm not even going to make half a forecast on Fay, I give up. She seems to have dropped every law of tropical activity I once held dear. First she teleports onto Cuba, then she strengthens over land, then she just sits.

You just do your own thing Fay.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it is tracking just a little west of due north at the moment.

If she tracks back over Florida slowly we can speculate about a remnant low reaching the gulf for a couple days, but it looks like 94L might be more interesting

[LaunchGal]

Well, I said I wouldn't go to sleep until Fay was outta here, but I succumbed to a 3 hour nap while in the "eye".

Something loud woke me up a little while ago... and OMG she is still on top of me! I kept hitting refresh on the radar page thinking it wasn't loading properly.

Is she waiting for the next shuttle launch?