ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

looks like the circ is still in the mid levels

do NOT discount a SF threat from this one. This very well could threaten the area. It should move NW for a couple of more days until it moves past the weakness in the ridge

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Unless the system is moving slowly or is a moderate tropical storm. I would pay little atention to quickscat. I think it did this to a cat5 hurricane to a few years ago.

There is a difference between this and fay. That is the lower level clouds at very low levels are showing a closed LLC. While Fay had very little of that, more at the mid levels.

[Thunder44]

SouthFloridaWx, the timestamp on the bottom of the QS image is 10:39 UTC. Today's date is also on top.

[Derek Ortt]

the forward speed does not make it hard for QS to pick up a circ

what could make it hard is if it is a small circulation

[Thunder44]

LLC? What LLC?

This will probably keep TPC from upgrading it before the plane gets there this afternoon. It might need some more time to get organized at the surface.

Nope. We saw the same thing in Bertha when it was a major. Quikscat is a satellite, and sometimes cannot see all the way to the surface when rain is extremely heavy. Therefore, this and Bertha were portrayed as open waves, even though Bertha did and this one likely does have a llc.

This isn't at the stage of development that Bertha was at the time. I haven't looked at surface obs or studied visible imagery yet. So I haven't really made my own determination yet. But I think TPC will wait knowing how they have acted in the past. Then again, they have been less predictable this year.

[HURAKAN]

Lower Levels:


Upper Levels:

[cycloneye]

what could make it hard is if it is a small circulation

And that is what recon will find out this afternoon to see if there is a tiny closed LLC or not.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There was reports out of south America of a west wind to its south. I would say wait intil recon comes in. This has 10 times the inflow as fay ever had before DR. IN that is a sign of a developing closed LLC.

[wxman57]

the forward speed does not make it hard for QS to pick up a circ

what could make it hard is if it is a small circulation

Or if the LLC is obscured by rain. QS can't see well through rain.

Just looking at it this morning, it does appear to be located west of all the 06Z model guidance but its forward speed is slower than yesterday and it's on more of a WNW track toward Jamaica to western Haiti. That western track toward the Yucatan is looking less likely. Good for the NW Gulf, bad for Florida, possibly. Latest GFDL has a very Fay-like track across Cuba to near the Keys by Saturday then northward. No way I'm very confident in a track at this point. It could even turn north across eastern Cuba or Haiti and head out to sea.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren

[cycloneye]

We have TD 7.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

invest_RENUMBER_al942008_al072008.ren

07L=nhc going for it!

[bvigal]

This is the best-looking nothing I've ever seen. As little as 2 years ago, this would have been called a TD late last night or early this morning, and few would have criticized the decision. Now the U.S. media hype and hysteria is a deciding factor in declaring storms, as NHC needs to postpone as long as possible printing a storm track and cone. I'm so sick of the U.S. media I could barf! They really run the country now, them and the lawyers.
edit: Well I see they've decided it's a TD, good!

[CourierPR]

Might we see a 1964 Hurricane Cleo redux?

[Derek Ortt]

not in the atcf guidance file yet... just ran a c-shells cript to get the models and it was not there yet

[Derek Ortt]

are we sure it wont be Gustav at 11. This likely has TS winds

[gatorcane]

are we sure it wont be Gustav at 11. This likely has TS winds

I think we have Gustav at 11. If not by 11 definitely by 5EST.

Impressive to say the least:

[deltadog03]

Well, one thing that the QS did show were some 40kt wind barbs..That were not contaminated by rain....I would say we might have Gustav...

[HURAKAN]

Station MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR
17.972 N 67.047 W (17°58'18" N 67°2'48" W)

Code: Select all

MM    DD    TIME
(ADT)         WDIR    WSPD
kts    GST
kts    WVHT
ft    DPD
sec    APD
sec    MWD    PRES
in    PTDY
in    ATMP
°F    WTMP
°F    DEWP
°F    SAL
psu    VIS
mi    TIDE
ft
08   25   9:48 am        SSW   4.1   7.0   -   -   -   -   29.91   -   81.0   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   9:42 am        SW   5.1   8.9   -   -   -   -   29.90   -   80.4   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   9:36 am        SW   2.9   6.0   -   -   -   -   29.90   -   80.6   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   9:30 am        SSW   1.9   5.1   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.4   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   9:24 am        SSW   1.9   5.1   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.2   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   9:18 am        SW   2.9   5.1   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.2   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   9:12 am        SW   1.0   6.0   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.4   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   9:06 am        SSW   2.9   6.0   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.1   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   8:54 am        SW   1.9   6.0   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.2   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   8:48 am        SW   1.9   6.0   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.1   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   8:42 am        SW   4.1   8.9   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.1   85.5   -   -   -   -
08   25   8:36 am        SW   4.1   7.0   -   -   -   -   29.89   -   80.2   85.5   -   -   -   -