ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Jevo]

question .. when would recon data be put into the models?

I think 00z.

Both the NAM data and the recon will be in at 00z.. I think we may see a slight shift to the north... The NAM is spot on when it comes down to ridging

from the LIX disco

THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. THUS...POPS SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SPREAD OUT WITH SOME PREDICTING A TURN
OVER FLORIDA WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENTUAL PATH
OF HURRICANE IKE REMAINS IN QUESTION.

[ColdFusion]

question .. when would recon data be put into the models?

I think 00z.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the way I remember, everyone kept waiting for all the new data to be entered into the models for Gustav, and it didnt make 1 bit of a difference.

[Sabanic]

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.

[LowndesCoFire]

A cursory glance at Strat's chart says to my eye Appalachicola to St Mark's. I can't imagine the surge if that verifies.

Watch to see if the next run tightens around that same curve.

What are the chances of that happening...and dont say anything can happen...I mean how likely is that appearing to be? I know its a looooong way from that but just in "concerned and watching" mode anyway. 23 years ago Kate, a TS / Cat. 1 storm in our area took South GA offline for weeks!

[foladar]

question .. when would recon data be put into the models?

I think 00z.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the way I remember, everyone kept waiting for all the new data to be entered into the models for Gustav, and it didnt make 1 bit of a difference.

it may not make a difference, but im willing to wait, its still far enough away even those models are due to change imo

[Jevo]

question .. when would recon data be put into the models?

I think 00z.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the way I remember, everyone kept waiting for all the new data to be entered into the models for Gustav, and it didnt make 1 bit of a difference.

Not to correct you.. just educate you.. During Gustav all of the Globals were on point and did not waiver so the same data was being entered with each Dynamic model run.

how this differs is that the NAM (Global Model) previously built in a strong ridge. Now on this run it is forecasting a weakness that Ike will be able to take advantage of. To be honest Im not sure if there will be a change in the dynamic models, but if there is this is the type of thing that would cause it

[ROCK]

ROCK will love this 12z Euro run ... Ed Mahmoud, on the other hand, will not.

BOOM goes the DYNAMITE!!!! I can smell the shiner from here......

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z GFS is running, westward through 36 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Blown Away]

The NHC says they may shift the track S during the next advisory?? The 12Z models seem to be all over SW Florida which does not seem S to me, so what am I missing?

[StormWarning1]

The NHC says they may shift the track S during the next advisory?? The 18Z models seem to be all over SW Florida which does not seem S to me, so what am I missing?

Those are the 12z models.
18z are running right now.

[MusicCityMan]

I dont like seeing the models now in the GOM near the West Coast. Sounds like a real possibility of a recurve and then a donna/charley type track..

[Weatherfreak000]

Another bunk GFS Run...


Don't understand why they can't pick up on the obvious WSW motion...

[StormWarning1]

Another bunk GFS Run...


Don't understand why they can't pick up on the obvious WSW motion...

This run is way south of the 12z run, now headed to Cuba at hour 66.

[Myersgirl]

I dont like seeing the models now in the GOM near the West Coast. Sounds like a real possibility of a recurve and then a donna/charley type track..

Channel 5 her in Ft Myers says probably not due to a high coming from the Pacific ... hard to trust

[artist]

interesting chart here with verifications from the HPC -

[Weatherfreak000]

Another bunk GFS Run...


Don't understand why they can't pick up on the obvious WSW motion...

This run is way south of the 12z run, now headed to Cuba at hour 66.

Your right! Im sorry, disregard that.

[Bgator]

GFS is WAYY farther south.

[Weatherfreak000]

Isn't it...at 78 Hours it's jammed in Cuba...likely getting completely shredded.

[KWT]

Yep well south of the 12z GFS, in northern Cuba...just like the UKMO and the ECM, I think its pretty obvious the main risk is now shunted down to Cuba.

[Bgator]

Through 90 hours still heading WSW, might miss the weakness.