ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

[green eyed girl]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Agreed.

[Sabanic]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Agreed.

Almost Southeast?

[Ed Mahmoud]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1144 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008




.DISCUSSION...

...EXTREME FLOODING DANGER IN SOUTH BREVARD...
...TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS MEANDERED SLOWLY NORTH TO CAPE
CANAVERAL SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER HAS RESULTED IN PROFOUND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY.

STORM TOTAL REPORTS OF 16 AND 21 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER
NORTH MELBOURNE. THE RESULTING FLOODING HAS PRODUCED LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD IN THE
SHORT TERM.

Getting into Allison territory now. Might just get its name retired w/o ever being a hurricane if it keeps that up.

[paintplaye]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Agreed.

If she moves east and then ESE then west i am going to not trust the models ever again on this storm.

[BigA]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Recon agrees. Center is at 28.57, 80.43 per latest vdm, which is just to the northeast of cape canaveral, and a bit east of previous position.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If you actually look at the water vapor loop of Fay, she appears to be heading ESE overall for the last few hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Agreed.

Almost Southeast?

Yea, maybe so. It is a slight drift, but I definitely don't see any northward motion ATM.

[Ivanhater]

Don't they usually do some kind of loop during these transition periods?

[Ivanhater]

Just got a campus email, pretty much spot on to what were talking about lol

The NHC track will bring Fay to the north of Pensacola late Sunday or early Monday. Based on the NHC track, Fay will be a tropical depression by this time. As a tropical depression, Fay would just be a big rainmaker, and as such, university activities generally should be able to proceed as planned. However, it should be noted that a number of the computer tracking models show a potential for Fay to move back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, head west ward and intensify back to at least tropical storm status. This scenario would, of course, present problems for the campus community

[Dean4Storms]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Recon agrees. Center is at 28.57, 80.43 per latest vdm, which is just to the northeast of cape canaveral, and a bit east of previous position.

Wow, she is further east than what I was thinking.

[Sabanic]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Recon agrees. Center is at 28.57, 80.43 per latest vdm, which is just to the northeast of cape canaveral, and a bit east of previous position.

Wow, she is further east than what I was thinking.

Here we go. Oh boy

[green eyed girl]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Recon agrees. Center is at 28.57, 80.43 per latest vdm, which is just to the northeast of cape canaveral, and a bit east of previous position.

Wow, she is further east than what I was thinking.

Dean, what do you think this will mean for her future track in your opinion?

[cpdaman]

80 '43 or 80.43 , the former would be 80.7

[Jason_B]

If there's a ridge that suppose to push her west then why is she still moving due east?

[BigA]

80 '43 or 80.43 , the former would be 80.7

28°34'N 80°26'W (28.57N 80.43W)

[Dean4Storms]

Just got a campus email, pretty much spot on to what were talking about lol

The NHC track will bring Fay to the north of Pensacola late Sunday or early Monday. Based on the NHC track, Fay will be a tropical depression by this time. As a tropical depression, Fay would just be a big rainmaker, and as such, university activities generally should be able to proceed as planned. However, it should be noted that a number of the computer tracking models show a potential for Fay to move back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, head west ward and intensify back to at least tropical storm status. This scenario would, of course, present problems for the campus community

Yea IH, the NHC track is just a Consensus and we've seen with this storm that the Consensus that far out has been wrong all along. It wasn't but yesterday ATT that Fay was suppose to be well up in GA by the Consensus by Sat. Any southward track moreso than what the NHC has plotted for the track ATM and Fay is over very Warm SST's and a favorable enough environment for strengthening in the NE GOM. It won't take much in change of track to make this a whole nother ballgame.

[Sabanic]

If there's a ridge that suppose to push her west then why is she still moving due east?

Drifting now

[Dean4Storms]

She looks to be moving east to me on Radar now.

Recon agrees. Center is at 28.57, 80.43 per latest vdm, which is just to the northeast of cape canaveral, and a bit east of previous position.[/quote]

Wow, she is further east than what I was thinking.[/quote]

Dean, what do you think this will mean for her future track in your opinion?[/quote]

If she doesn't attain enough latitude before turning back west she could very well end up in the NE GOM. The further north she gets the more likely the NHC track plays out, providing she doesn't make any WSW movement for any long period of time.

[cpdaman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

not too shabby , although i think it was up to 30 yesterday (during the land eye)

i would hope that she "drifts" back to the west very soon, otherwise activity on this board will ramp up very quick, and also the rainfall rates will continue to pile up. I can't imagine what it looks like in melboure now, and should this thing deepen rapidly it would go from bad to very bad potentially