ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

An ABC meteorologist (based in Texas City, Texas area) notes that pressures are decreasing more rapidly at Angleton (near Freeport) than Galveston, which would suggest a landfall farther SW (just SW of Galveston). He also notes that satellite imagery supports this view, and I agree in this case.

The worst possible thing that could happen, would mean an even larger surge in Galveston then the SLOSH model was prediciting which was already suggesting the sea wall would probably get topped, also thats very bad news for Houston as well IF that happens.

However I still wouldn't be surprised if it wobbles right just befor elandfall either, we just have to wait and see but if it ends up a little more SW by say 10-15 miles its a very severe situation...

[MiamiensisWx]

bingo!....ANIT-WOBBLE MAN here too,but THIS IS WERE ALL WOBBLES COUNT!

I agree as well...

Based on recent (increased) organization/deepening trends and the 500 mb streamline analysis, a jog farther east may occur just before landfall, bringing the center ashore over or (likely) slightly SW of the city of Galveston.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

[rtd2]

BIG eye clearly visible on LR radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[Brent]

I think the Saffir-Simpsons scale needs some major changes. Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane that will produce up to 25 foot high storm surge. I think there should be a scale based on how large the storm, not just the wind speed and central pressure.

Strongly agree. It is horribly outdated after recent storms.

[lost cause]

I've been texting back and fort with a friend whose family is staying in the League City area (west of I-45) and they're back near their normal homestead in Dickinson near Dickinson Bayou. She said that the bayou is up 4 to 6 feet above normal and the air has a very strong salty taste in the air. I used to work in Dickinson for five years and I never once smelled the salty air like I do when I'm Galveston.

And the scary thing is the full power of this storm has yet to be realized.

Are you still in Galveston at this time? Hopefully, you've evacuated...

Oh, heck no. My wife and I evac'd to her mother's place in Denham Springs. I've still got interests and folk bck in Galveston that I'm concerned about. But, we left Wednesday abt 6:45 and arrived after midnight. We wanted to avoid the eventual rush that was soon to come.

[superfly]

Pretty hard to tell what the heading is right now even on radar because of the large "eye."

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the Saffir-Simpsons scale needs some major changes. Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane that will produce up to 25 foot high storm surge. I think there should be a scale based on how large the storm, not just the wind speed and central pressure.

Strongly agree. It is horribly outdated after recent storms.

The surge portion was outdated even in the past... there have likely been many large TCs that produced surge values much higher than the Saffir-Simpson "standard" category classifications.

[jinftl]

Not too familiar with Houston area...but looking at map, i would hazard to guess...those 'in the know' please let me know if i am wrong...but a landfall along or to the west of I-45 looks like worst spot for Galveston Bay.

http://tourtexas.com/texasmap_hou.html

[Cape Verde]

An ABC meteorologist (based in Texas City, Texas area) notes that pressures are decreasing more rapidly at Angleton (near Freeport) than Galveston, which would suggest a landfall farther SW (just SW of Galveston). He also notes that satellite imagery supports this view, and I agree in this case.

As far as I understand it, Ike will head for the point with the lowest pressure in his path. Of course, that could shift slightly in the next 10 hours or so, but not by dozens of miles. So, Galveston will experience something it hasn't in the past 100 years. And this would be terrible for Galveston Bay. You'll have barges in the Houston Ship Channel breaking loose and banging into the petrochemical facilities.

America does not even begin to understand what a disaster this will be.

[Steve]

>>I think the Saffir-Simpsons scale needs some major changes. Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane that will produce up to 25 foot high storm surge. I think there should be a scale based on how large the storm, not just the wind speed and central pressure.

I disagree. I think we just need to add another facet of the SS scale to denote the surge potential.

Lots of flooding and levee breaks in South Terrebonne including Montegut, Point Aux Chene, Dulac, etc. Rescues underway per 870am. Water west LA 22 on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain in Madisonville area. Water still not covering the US 90 in Des Allemands but some homes appeared to be close to taking on water when I passed through an hour ago. Some of St. Bernard and other portions of St. Tammany outside of the levee protection are flooded. Plaquemines Parish has its issues as well. LA Highway 1 is expected to have 3-4' of water on it south of the Theriot Floodgates (Golden Meadow, Port Fourchon, Grand Isle, Leeville). Crazy, crazy day. Just glad I can chill down here in Lafourche with some 45ish gusts and occasional rain. Also, I understand Beach Blvd. (US 90) in Hancock County, MS is completely underwater. Lots of signal lights out in Metaire and the Westbank of New Orleans and scattered power outages around.

Steve

[rtd2]

I think the Saffir-Simpsons scale needs some major changes. Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane that will produce up to 25 foot high storm surge. I think there should be a scale based on how large the storm, not just the wind speed and central pressure.

Strongly agree. It is horribly outdated after recent storms.

been SCREAMING this since cat 3 Katrina (COUGH*) Produced a 30FT storm surge here in mississippi. youll find MANY post by others here that agree but this is what we got and its up to the media and local mets to say we have a CAT 2 windstorm with a CAT 4 (atleast) storm surge

[Cape Verde]

Not too familiar with Houston area...but looking at map, i would hazard to guess...those 'in the know' please let me know if i am wrong...but a landfall along or to the west of I-45 looks like worst spot for Galveston Bay.

http://tourtexas.com/texasmap_hou.html

Dead on.

[superfly]

Not too familiar with Houston area...but looking at map, i would hazard to guess...those 'in the know' please let me know if i am wrong...but a landfall along or to the west of I-45 looks like worst spot for Galveston Bay.

http://tourtexas.com/texasmap_hou.html

Actually I think the worst landfall is Freeport or maybe even a bit further west with Ike since the highest winds are well away from the center.

[Tireman4]

This might be Galveston's biggest test in 108 years.

In my opinion, I would not say that. They had the 1915 storm that was a DOOZY.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1915_Galveston_Hurricane

That was the first real test of the seawall after the 1900 Storm.

[rtd2]

worst spot is going to be just east of the eye as they will stay in the eyewall and NEVER get any let up till its over! and since the eye is large who knows where this will be

[Ptarmigan]

been SCREAMING this since cat 3 Katrina (COUGH*) Produced a 30FT storm surge here in mississippi. youll find MANY post by others here that agree but this is what we got and its up to the media and local mets to say we have a CAT 2 windstorm with a CAT 4 (atleast) storm surge

By the way, I am very sorry that your area got wacked by Katrina really HARD!!!!!! Our area is going through this soon. Hurricane Charley had Category 4 winds, but only had 4 to 6 foot storm surge. Ike is forecasted to have storm surge as high as 25 feet!

[MiamiensisWx]

An ABC meteorologist (based in Texas City, Texas area) notes that pressures are decreasing more rapidly at Angleton (near Freeport) than Galveston, which would suggest a landfall farther SW (just SW of Galveston). He also notes that satellite imagery supports this view, and I agree in this case.

As far as I understand it, Ike will head for the point with the lowest pressure in his path. Of course, that could shift slightly in the next 10 hours or so, but not by dozens of miles. So, Galveston will experience something it hasn't in the past 100 years. And this would be terrible for Galveston Bay. You'll have barges in the Houston Ship Channel breaking loose and banging into the petrochemical facilities.

America does not even begin to understand what a disaster this will be.

Actually, I was stating that the lower pressures are caused by the approaching TC... they do not influence the TC's path. Since the greatest pressure falls are occurring in Angleton, the center is currently heading closer to that location than Galveston at this time.

[Ptarmigan]

In my opinion, I would not say that. They had the 1915 storm that was a DOOZY.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1915_Galveston_Hurricane

That was the first real test of the seawall after the 1900 Storm.

The 1915 Hurricane of Galveston was also a big flood event. I saw videos of waves going above the Galveston Seawall.

[jinftl]

Like 2Yellow for Cat 2 with minor surge risk, 2Orange for Cat 2 with moderate surge risk, 2Red for Catw 2 w/major surge risk

>>I think the Saffir-Simpsons scale needs some major changes. Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane that will produce up to 25 foot high storm surge. I think there should be a scale based on how large the storm, not just the wind speed and central pressure.

I disagree. I think we just need to add another facet of the SS scale to denote the surge potential.

Lots of flooding and levee breaks in South Terrebonne including Montegut, Point Aux Chene, Dulac, etc. Rescues underway per 870am. Water west LA 22 on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain in Madisonville area. Water still not covering the US 90 in Des Allemands but some homes appeared to be close to taking on water when I passed through an hour ago. Some of St. Bernard and other portions of St. Tammany outside of the levee protection are flooded. Plaquemines Parish has its issues as well. LA Highway 1 is expected to have 3-4' of water on it south of the Theriot Floodgates (Golden Meadow, Port Fourchon, Grand Isle, Leeville). Crazy, crazy day. Just glad I can chill down here in Lafourche with some 45ish gusts and occasional rain. Also, I understand Beach Blvd. (US 90) in Hancock County, MS is completely underwater. Lots of signal lights out in Metaire and the Westbank of New Orleans and scattered power outages around.

Steve

[jinftl]

CNN met making some bold statements.....says looks like...and it could change...that worst east eyewall will go right of Shipping Channel sparing 25' surge...he did say could change