ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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cpdaman
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11241 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:33 pm

NFLnut wrote:
tolakram wrote:Mercy

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Good thing the waters are cool and this is close to shore.




The low sea temps there (upper 60s) are the only good thing, but still .. FAY needs to kick it and getouttahere!


actually water temps did go from 81 to 75 at the inner bouy . crikey what a savior

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009


upper 60's LOL 79 near shore (with gulf stream mid 80's) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41113
Last edited by cpdaman on Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#11242 Postby fci » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:35 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Is Fay picking up some steam? It seems the wind and rain are blowing and coming down harder and harder by the 1/2 hour...


She just might be, she appears to be just off the coast now and with her structure and UL conditions favorable this little lady could be re-strengthening as I type.


KNowing her aversion to the water, I don't think Fay will strengthen much, if at all.
It seems like the NHC is feeling the same way from the last discussion.
She has become just a horrific rain event.
I feel for the folks up the coast where she is just raining non-stop.
But, I don't think she will be much of a wind event for anyone.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11243 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:35 pm

NFLnut wrote:
tolakram wrote:Mercy

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Good thing the waters are cool and this is close to shore.




The low sea temps there (upper 60s) are the only good thing, but still .. FAY needs to kick it and getouttahere!



Upper 60s? Typo maybe?

This buoy is saying 78.8

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41113
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11244 Postby Bane » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:37 pm

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE TO TEN INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF
THIRTY INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.



wow, that is amazing.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11245 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:38 pm

i am a little surprised who relatively "cool" the water are there , and how much cooler they got from the apparent upwelling of the last few days


i mean gulf temps are near 90 at the beaches in clearwater (as usual) and boca is 87 ish
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11246 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:38 pm

Based on the visible loop and observations I'm not buying the SE or east movement of the center. Maybe it's wobbling around.

Image

Trident Pier, FL, Cape Canaveral, FL MTRDF1
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MTRDF1
Image

West, Southwest winds indicate the center is northwest of this location, correct? With the winds becoming more west this indicates the center is moving east, north of this location. Roughly. And with the pressure rising this may indicate the center is moving further away. All this points to a slow northeast movement of the center.

I think (edited 5 times).
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#11247 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:43 pm

Image

Rain continues to fall across South Florida. A beautiful morning is becoming a cloudy, rainy afternoon.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11248 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:45 pm

appears the waters are very upwelled in the area (5 degree drops on some bouys) but regardless the gulf stream waters begin at around 80.1 west and bend NNW up about 50 miles north , according to some fishing charts "hotspots charts".
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11249 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:48 pm

anyone notice the meso cyclone on the SW side of the broader low pressure area SE of orlando and SW of cape canaveral

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11250 Postby crazycajuncane » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:51 pm

Would anyone happen to have some official event rain totals? Melbourne looks like it's in bad shape. I read 16-21 inches possibly?
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#11251 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:52 pm

I think you got rain that was much needed there.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11252 Postby CajunMama » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:54 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:Would anyone happen to have some official event rain totals? Melbourne looks like it's in bad shape. I read 16-21 inches possibly?


This was as of 9:30pm tuesday night according to the melbourne nws office:

SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FAY THUS FAR INCLUDE...

10.20 INCHES IN JENSEN BEACH...
8.69 INCHES FROM A WEATHER SPOTTER IN PORT SAINT LUCIE...
8.20 INCHES IN ROCKY POINT IN MARTIN COUNTY...
7.60 INCHES IN PALM CITY...
7.48 INCHES AT JUPITER...
7.15 INCHES AT SAINT LUCIE COUNTY AIRPORT IN FORT PIERCE...
6.71 INCHES FROM A WEATHER SPOTTER IN MELBOURNE BEACH...
5.55 INCHES IN STUART...
5.54 INCHES AT THE VERO BEACH AIRPORT...
5.48 INCHES AT JUNO BEACH...
5.24 INCHES IN PALM BAY...
4.95 INCHES AT THE MELBOURNE AIRPORT...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11253 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:55 pm

No movement in 2 hours.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST ABOUT 15
MILES...20 KM...NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

Image
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#11254 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:57 pm

Big rainfall totals, it seems like this may well be Florida's Allison sadly, huge flooding looking increasingly likely sadly.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11255 Postby crazycajuncane » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:57 pm

CajunMama wrote:
crazycajuncane wrote:Would anyone happen to have some official event rain totals? Melbourne looks like it's in bad shape. I read 16-21 inches possibly?


This was as of 9:30pm tuesday night according to the melbourne nws office:

SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FAY THUS FAR INCLUDE...

10.20 INCHES IN JENSEN BEACH...
8.69 INCHES FROM A WEATHER SPOTTER IN PORT SAINT LUCIE...
8.20 INCHES IN ROCKY POINT IN MARTIN COUNTY...
7.60 INCHES IN PALM CITY...
7.48 INCHES AT JUPITER...
7.15 INCHES AT SAINT LUCIE COUNTY AIRPORT IN FORT PIERCE...
6.71 INCHES FROM A WEATHER SPOTTER IN MELBOURNE BEACH...
5.55 INCHES IN STUART...
5.54 INCHES AT THE VERO BEACH AIRPORT...
5.48 INCHES AT JUNO BEACH...
5.24 INCHES IN PALM BAY...
4.95 INCHES AT THE MELBOURNE AIRPORT...


Thanks CajunMama!

Melbourne was between 5-7 inches and that was 15 hours ago!

This rainfall event is shaping up to be like Allison in 2001.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11256 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:58 pm

VDM is a bit WNW than the last one at 1230pm
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11257 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:58 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:Would anyone happen to have some official event rain totals? Melbourne looks like it's in bad shape. I read 16-21 inches possibly?


RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 8 AM INCLUDE OVER 12 INCHES AT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE...13.37 INCHES AT FORT
PIERCE...13.83 IN STUART AND 21.70 INCHES IN NORTH MELBOURNE.
PLEASE UNDERSTAND...THIS DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR RAIN THAT HAS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS!

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FLC009-202030-
/O.CON.KMLB.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080820T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BREVARD FL-
128 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

THIS IS A HISTORIC AND HAZARDOUS RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.
DRIVING HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO ACCUMULATION
OF STANDING WATER IN MANY AREAS. ALTHOUGH FLOWING WATER MAY NOT BE
PRESENT THERE IS A THREAT PARTICULARLY ALONG LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND
ROADS THAT ARE LINED WITH CULVERTS AND DITCHES.

WHILE DRIVING YOU MAY BELIEVE YOU ARE ON THE ROADWAY HOWEVER YOU MAY
LOSE CONTACT WITH THE ROAD SURFACE. IF YOU STRAY INTO A WATER FILLED
DITCH OR HIT A SUBMERGED OBSTRUCTION YOUR CAR WILL BE DISABLED...OR
EVEN WORSE YOU MAY BECOME TRAPPED WITHIN A SUBMERGED VEHICLE.

IF YOU DO NOT NEED TO BE ON THE ROADS THIS AFTERNOON PLEASE STAY IN
A SHELTERED LOCATION. DRIVING HAS BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS AROUND SOUTH
BREVARD COUNTY !!

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE TO TEN INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF
THIRTY INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

THIS EPIC RAINFALL OCCURRENCE WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF WATER
ENTERING HOMES AND BUSINESSES. ROAD DETOURS AND CLOSURES ARE
OCCURRING AROUND MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...EAU GALLIE...VIERA AND
SUNTREE.

HEED THE WORD OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IF YOU ARE TOLD TO EVACUATE.

FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF
FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD.
WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN !!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11258 Postby crazycajuncane » Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:00 pm

Brent wrote:
crazycajuncane wrote:Would anyone happen to have some official event rain totals? Melbourne looks like it's in bad shape. I read 16-21 inches possibly?


RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 8 AM INCLUDE OVER 12 INCHES AT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE...13.37 INCHES AT FORT
PIERCE...13.83 IN STUART AND 21.70 INCHES IN NORTH MELBOURNE.
PLEASE UNDERSTAND...THIS DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR RAIN THAT HAS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS!


Thanks Brent

Yeah that is some sick observations. 21.70 in north melbourne and it's lit like a Christmas tree right now. Should be well over two feet of rain by now.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11259 Postby crazycajuncane » Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:03 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11260 Postby sunny » Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:05 pm

She is stalled according to the 2 pm advisory.
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