ATL: IKE Discussion

[CronkPSU]

oh that's not good...KHOU weather guy said the eye has shrunk from 80 miles to 60 miles....tightening is taking place if that is true

[superfly]

worst spot is going to be just east of the eye as they will stay in the eyewall and NEVER get any let up till its over! and since the eye is large who knows where this will be

Looks like Port Arthur will be the worst area to be in.

[KWT]

I think that idea of pressure is a very interesting one, does seem like pressure is dropping quicker slightly SW of Galveston then Galveston itself though of course it always just be Ike wobbling after that big convective blow up occure don its western side.

I'm still amazed at how many people have decided to stay in the Galveston Bay region, man this could be very bad.

[rtd2]

been SCREAMING this since cat 3 Katrina (COUGH*) Produced a 30FT storm surge here in mississippi. youll find MANY post by others here that agree but this is what we got and its up to the media and local mets to say we have a CAT 2 windstorm with a CAT 4 (atleast) storm surge

By the way, I am very sorry that your area got wacked by Katrina really HARD!!!!!! Our area is going through this soon. Hurricane Charley had Category 4 winds, but only had 4 to 6 foot storm surge. Ike is forecasted to have storm surge as high as 25 feet!

yeah I think Miss coast, Galveston,apalchacola and a few other areas are higher risk as the water is shallow in these areas. Thanks for your concern seeing this breaks my heart for texas and I pray for the best its been 3 years but I still think about katrina daily!

[Sanibel]

If this was a normal storm the noticeable hazy look to the upper level would almost assure an intensity increase.

[Derek Ortt]

worst spot is going to be just east of the eye as they will stay in the eyewall and NEVER get any let up till its over! and since the eye is large who knows where this will be

Looks like Port Arthur will be the worst area to be in.

the IKE and surge potential are higher than Katrina when it struck Mississippi

[rtd2]

Did anyone see that guy on Fox? Had the goggles on...looked like a dweeb.

More serious...Galveston mayor on talking about a shelter of last resort. Hopefully not another Superdome.

theres got to be a couple of buildings that would easily withstand this in both areas(wind /water) and UNLIKE NOLA the surge will come and go and the water SHOULD (KEYWORD) go down pretty fast

[MGC]

Just to let you guys know how much water Ike is pushing, HWY-90 in Pass Christian just west of the small boat harbor is under water. The water is pushing a good block inland. Ike's surge will be historic for the upper Texas coast along with SW Louisiana. I've been watching Direct TV channel 261. Channel 11 out of Houston is on. Incredible pictures of the waves hitting the seawall in Galveston. Glad I got to visit Galveston a couple of years ago. Can't believe the number of foolish people that didn't evacuate. Galveston's day of reckoning is at hand. God Bless all of you in Ike's path......MGC

[tallywx]

I think that idea of pressure is a very interesting one, does seem like pressure is dropping quicker slightly SW of Galveston then Galveston itself though of course it always just be Ike wobbling after that big convective blow up occure don its western side.

I'm still amazed at how many people have decided to stay in the Galveston Bay region, man this could be very bad.

Is there any map online that plots out 1-hr or 3-hr pressure falls for individual observing stations? I've been searching for one in vain since Tropical Storm Hanna. MESOWEST doesn't have pressure changes as a data plot option...

[curtadams]

This might be Galveston's biggest test in 108 years.

In my opinion, I would not say that. They had the 1915 storm that was a DOOZY.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1915_Galveston_Hurricane

That was the first real test of the seawall after the 1900 Storm.

However, unlike the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, only 275 people were killed in Galveston thanks to a seawall built after the 1900 storm.

"only"

[KWT]

superfly, all depends on where it makes landfall, the highest winds are a touch away from the eye thanks to the structure so as you say far east Texas and maybe far W/LA may take the main wind damage but thats really only a minor story compared with the mammoth surge that is more then likely going to rake the Galveston Bay.

Should be noted any towns along central, eastern Texas as well as W.La neare the coasts will be in major trouble and there will be huge damages, this will be a 10 billion dollar storm at least IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

superfly, all depends on where it makes landfall, the highest winds are a touch away from the eye thanks to the structure so as you say far east Texas and maybe far W/LA may take the main wind damage but thats really only a minor story compared with the mammoth surge that is more then likely going to rake the Galveston Bay.

Should be noted any towns along central, eastern Texas as well as W.La neare the coasts will be in major trouble and there will be huge damages, this will be a 10 billion dollar storm at least IMO.

closer to 50 billion

[hial2]

Any info on refineries flooding??..Here in NC gas prices have gone up 56 CENTS/gallon since this A.M. and there are long lines at gas stations..

[Tireman4]

This might be Galveston's biggest test in 108 years.

In my opinion, I would not say that. They had the 1915 storm that was a DOOZY.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1915_Galveston_Hurricane

That was the first real test of the seawall after the 1900 Storm.

However, unlike the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, only 275 people were killed in Galveston thanks to a seawall built after the 1900 storm.

"only"

Realize that was Wikipedia..not me. I suppose the only is 275 as opposed to the 8-12,000 in the 1900 Storm.

[Raebie]

45% of Galveston stayed.

[vbhoutex]

CNN met making some bold statements.....says looks like...and it could change...that worst east eyewall will go right of Shipping Channel sparing 25' surge...he did say could change

Surge or wind driven tide, whatever you want to call it, is already over 6 feet in places along Galveston Bay. Personally I would not put much faith in someone reporting from afar llike that.

[dhweather]

Just to let you guys know how much water Ike is pushing, HWY-90 in Pass Christian just west of the small boat harbor is under water. The water is pushing a good block inland. Ike's surge will be historic for the upper Texas coast along with SW Louisiana. I've been watching Direct TV channel 261. Channel 11 out of Houston is on. Incredible pictures of the waves hitting the seawall in Galveston. Glad I got to visit Galveston a couple of years ago. Can't believe the number of foolish people that didn't evacuate. Galveston's day of reckoning is at hand. God Bless all of you in Ike's path......MGC

Wow, Highway 90 in the pass is under - again.

[jacindc]

Did the Galveston guy in the press conference just stay that they estimated that 40% of the population has stayed?

(I'm not saying that's what he said--it's what I thought, but I was only half listening)

[KWT]

closer to 50 billion

Yep thats probably far more likely, mine was a sort of best situation outcome, right now looking one of the worst situations is happening, just hope this doesn't rival Katrina in terms of deaths as well

[Ptarmigan]

yeah I think Miss coast, Galveston,apalchacola and a few other areas are higher risk as the water is shallow in these areas. Thanks for your concern seeing this breaks my heart for texas and I pray for the best its been 3 years but I still think about katrina daily!

There are some people staying behind in Galveston despite the storm surge. I have a bad feeling the death toll will be high from this storm. I hope I am wrong though.