ATL: IKE Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

Just my own .02 cents worth, but the tone in that Galveston news conference is somber and the look is akin to the "deer in the headlights" look.

City manager said something to the effect that he didn't think that this storm would be as bad as the 1900 storm. Don't know what the storm surge was in the 1900, but I can't imagine it being any higher than some of the values being forecast for Ike.

[bigjohn]

For those of you in the Houston/Gaveston area, what is the best news channel to watch? I am watching the 4 station website but I can't decide which one to watch! Thanks!

My vote would go to KHOU Channel 11 with Dr. Neil Frank former head of the NHC who has come back out of retirement for Ike.

[MiamiensisWx]

Source of 40% was Galveston city official in the city's official news conference.

Then expect this to one of the deadilest hurricane in the last 100 years up there with Katrina...this willbe one hell of a wake up call to all the idoits that think you can just ride out storms like this.

Speculation on death tolls is very macabre and inappropriate in these situations, personally.

[rtd2]

Where will they all go to stay safe?[/quote]

Where'd they go in 1900?[/quote]

There's a big church on the island that I think 400 people were ok in during the 1900 storm. The 'last resort' is a school.[/quote]



never been to Galveston but there isnt anything HIGHER than a school like a 4 story concrete structure somewhere?

[6SpeedTA95]

Then what a lesson that would....a Cat 2....with huge surge hitting densely populated area would only rank behind katrina and andrew in $ damage, Changes perception of "Cat 2".

superfly, all depends on where it makes landfall, the highest winds are a touch away from the eye thanks to the structure so as you say far east Texas and maybe far W/LA may take the main wind damage but thats really only a minor story compared with the mammoth surge that is more then likely going to rake the Galveston Bay.

Should be noted any towns along central, eastern Texas as well as W.La neare the coasts will be in major trouble and there will be huge damages, this will be a 10 billion dollar storm at least IMO.

closer to 50 billion

Katrina was a weakening (and weak) cat 3 when it made landfall. I've heard a few folks at NOAA say it may have been a cat 2. So cat2's can do damage and a storm of this size...man guys this storm is huge.

[TampaBay]

Has anyone heard how long the power is likely to be off in Galveston? Are their distribution and residential power lines mostly above ground or buried?

[Derek Ortt]

the 1900 storm was much smaller than this one

you had quite a few deaths from flying debris in that one that you may not have here, but you'll have a far higher tide

[Shoshana]

Just my own .02 cents worth, but the tone in that Galveston news conference is somber and the look is akin to the "deer in the headlights" look.

City manager said something to the effect that he didn't think that this storm would be as bad as the 1900 storm. Don't know what the storm surge was in the 1900, but I can't imagine it being any higher than some of the values being forecast for Ike.

Accoding to the NHC site, 8-15 feet.

Before the island was raised and the seawall built

[MiamiensisWx]

Has anyone heard how long the power is likely to be off in Galveston? Are their distribution and residential power lines mostly above ground or buried?

There are sources above and below ground level...

[MaryEllen71]

Just my own .02 cents worth, but the tone in that Galveston news conference is somber and the look is akin to the "deer in the headlights" look.

City manager said something to the effect that he didn't think that this storm would be as bad as the 1900 storm. Don't know what the storm surge was in the 1900, but I can't imagine it being any higher than some of the values being forecast for Ike.

I think the surge in 1900 was the height of the seawall, about 17 feet, I think.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 80% gone number was for West of the sea wall. I'm guessing the 40% is overall, including the main part of the city behind the flood wall. Fox News showed happy people drinking in a bar balcony with the waves slapping over the seawall behind them.

I guess, at least if they have risked death, if the worst does come, being drunk, they won't feel it as badly.

[KWT]

City manager said something to the effect that he didn't think that this storm would be as bad as the 1900 storm. Don't know what the storm surge was in the 1900, but I can't imagine it being any higher than some of the values being forecast for Ike.

It hopefully won't be that bad as we have the seawall, back then they had nothing to stop the 15-20ft surge but even so the water will clearly flood over the top of the sea wall and flood the city quite badly I'd expect.

[tallywx]

Galveston city official: nearly 100% evacuated for Rita. 40% have decided to stay for Ike.

Talk about choosing the wrong door.

[Raebie]

Now he's saying it wasn't predicted to go to Houston. It "took a turn".

Cover ass mode on.

[DPTX]

[quote="vbhoutex"][quote="Raebie"]45% of Galveston stayed.[/quote]
Source? That is not what is being reported here. Maybe 20%-30%.[/quote]

Channel 13 reported 40% stayed. The shelter of last resort is Ball High School. They wanted to get that word out. This is it....the last resort.

[Texas Snowman]

Hard to say, but with a 20 foot storm surge expected (as per Galveston City Manager), there will likely be severe damage to the island's structures, infrastructure, and services. I'd bet weeks, maybe a month or two.

[sponger]

How many Texans will be without power tomorrow. I think Francis was 1.2 million. We could easily see 4 million with out power tomorrow. Small potatoes compared the the pending storm surge but this is going to effect alot of people.

[funster]

The city manager says nearly 100% left during Rita. Guess the recent memory to Katrina really helped and the fear of getting stuck for a day in traffic.

[jacindc]

Oh, I think the Galveston city manager's CYA speech is not going to go over well.

[tallywx]

City manager said something to the effect that he didn't think that this storm would be as bad as the 1900 storm. Don't know what the storm surge was in the 1900, but I can't imagine it being any higher than some of the values being forecast for Ike.

It hopefully won't be that bad as we have the seawall, back then they had nothing to stop the 15-20ft surge but even so the water will clearly flood over the top of the sea wall and flood the city quite badly I'd expect.

Even if the 17-foot wall is over overtopped by 3 feet with a 20-foot surge, that's 3 feet over the wall + 20 foot waves over the wall. That's gonna drive water across the entire island like butter.