ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[wxman57]

We don't have to guess where Fay is. Lots of obs around the center. it's on the beach just north of the Shuttle Launch Facility just north of the report of 998.3mb at the facility.

[cpdaman]

so fay is moving again , slowly northward (good for gulf) watch for motion to bend back NNW, then NW, WNW etc as the mid level high builds down from the north at the same time she inches north.

thinking no gulf and hopefully an end in site to melbourne's rain

[LowndesCoFire]

Gov. Crist was on the t.v. a few minutes ago and he said that there was already one death in Florida related to Fay. Does anyone know what that one was about? I seem to have missed that story.

Tropical Storm Fay lumbered northward Wednesday along the east coast of Central Florida, dumping record rain in Brevard County.

Earlier Wednesday, state officials said one death could be linked to the storm.

A person testing a generator in Highlands County died, officials said at a 10 a.m. briefing. The person reportedly was testing it inside a building and died of carbon monoxide poisoning, according to information released at the briefing.
http://www.wesh.com/weather/17155099/detail.html

[masaji79]

From the Radar Fay almost looks like Frances of 2008. Although that blank area for Fay is not an eye.

[KWT]

Not only that wxman57 but the vis imagery also gives a fair indicaiton of where its located given the way the convection has wrapped around the southern side.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like an oblong shaped eye is trying to form just NE of the Cape. If it contracts and convection wraps around it, Fay would be stengthening again.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=mlb&loop=yes

That impossible, fay doesn't strengthen over water She will strengthen tonight or tomorrow as she moves over land.

ROFLMBO!!!!! How many times has she proven this now? I lost count!!!!

Based on that radar I see the center just off shore from the cape. Of course Wxman57 has better tools than I do so... It does look like it attempted to develop a smaller consolidated center of ciruclation at the southern side of the the large oblong area and that is, imo, where the true center is with the majority of the "oblong eye" actually just beind a dry slot/area devoid of storms. If Fay does move further over water I would expect to see the totallly blasted inner core try to consolidate in that area mentioned above.

[ocala]

I thought the death might have been that goofball with the kite.
Now, another death from someone running a generator inside!
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Lol, Fay should have auditioned for the role of "Two-Face" in The Dark Knight.

[hiflyer]

Think the shuttle launch guys can put in their shift report that they had the whole area washed today....

That first little swirl in the lower right quad of the center of circulation dissolved as fast as it built......see if it does a second and third round and get's one to stick.

Definitely getting east side heavy.....couple meso's popping up there and surprisingly just nw of TPA on the 'weak' side.

[BigA]

Pressure at 994.4 per recon, center located at 28.90 80.38

[SoupBone]

I just want a quick, dirty and honest answer. Why is everyone so quick to discount all the models pointing her to the gulf? The NHC seems to be doing the same. With my non experienced eyes I just don't understand.

[KWT]

BigA that would suggest there has been some slight movement to the NNE from the looks of things, still recon fix has this pretty much over the water, granted not by a big deal!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Gov. Crist was on the t.v. a few minutes ago and he said that there was already one death in Florida related to Fay. Does anyone know what that one was about? I seem to have missed that story.

Tropical Storm Fay lumbered northward Wednesday along the east coast of Central Florida, dumping record rain in Brevard County.

Earlier Wednesday, state officials said one death could be linked to the storm.

A person testing a generator in Highlands County died, officials said at a 10 a.m. briefing. The person reportedly was testing it inside a building and died of carbon monoxide poisoning, according to information released at the briefing.
http://www.wesh.com/weather/17155099/detail.html

That is so horrible! I just have such a hard time understanding how something like that can happen in this day and age, when the warnings regarding such actions are so prevalent. Still, it is very sad that yet another life was lost in a completely preventable way.

[vbhoutex]

Think the shuttle launch guys can put in their shift report that they had the whole area washed today....

That first little swirl in the lower right quad of the center of circulation dissolved as fast as it built......see if it does a second and third round and get's one to stick.

Definitely getting east side heavy.....couple meso's popping up there and surprisingly just nw of TPA on the 'weak' side.

Yep, you saw what I saw in that radar. That means I wasn't imagining things.

[wxman57]

I just want a quick, dirty and honest answer. Why is everyone so quick to discount all the models pointing her to the gulf? The NHC seems to be doing the same. With my non experienced eyes I just don't understand.

Because all the models aren't bringing Fay into the Gulf.

[CronkPSU]

trying to close or just filling in the dry air in that big circle?

[TideJoe]

I just want a quick, dirty and honest answer. Why is everyone so quick to discount all the models pointing her to the gulf? The NHC seems to be doing the same. With my non experienced eyes I just don't understand.

I'd like to know the same. My guess is the Gulf track is to the left of the "consensus" but at the same time you can tell the NHC is has very little confidence in the track with 75% of the SE US in the 5-day cone.

[Nexus]

Pressure at 994.4 per recon, center located at 28.90 80.38

That position is in the middle of the "empty space" eyelike feature on radar, offshore.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... 380&zoom=9

[BigA]

58 knot flight level wind(10sec) with 56kt(30 seconds) This is clearly a bit stronger than a few hours earlier. SFMR of 49 knots. Depending on the rest of what the recon finds, might be justification to bump it up to 50 kts.

[vbhoutex]

I just want a quick, dirty and honest answer. Why is everyone so quick to discount all the models pointing her to the gulf? The NHC seems to be doing the same. With my non experienced eyes I just don't understand.

My guess is they are also looking more closely at the synoptics involved and including that in the analysis and it doesn't add up to Fay inthe GOM.

Also what do you mean "All of the models pointing her to the Gulf."? Are you talking about the few that do that(last model plot I saw only had a few with her in the GOM)?