ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[vbhoutex]

trying to close or just filling in the dry air in that big circle?

IMO, both. I think it will consolidate even more and it appears that it will be sooner than later. Looks like Fay is taking a long drink of that warm Atlantic water.

[chris_fit]

Some pics of my neighborhood...

http://www.djmaciej.com/fay/101_0074.JPG
http://www.djmaciej.com/fay/101_0076.JPG
http://www.djmaciej.com/fay/101_0077.JPG
http://www.djmaciej.com/fay/101_0082.JPG
http://www.djmaciej.com/fay/101_0083.JPG
http://www.djmaciej.com/fay/101_0093.JPG
http://www.djmaciej.com/fay/101_0101.JPG

edit: images are large... will only include links...

[wxman57]

With such a large, open center it'll take longer to consolidate and organize. And with just a short time over the water, there may not be any time for strengthening beyond 5-10 mph. Watch out for those SFMR reports, they are not accurate in shallower water near shore where there are breaking waves. And the normal FL to surface wind conversion may not apply here. There are many surface obs around fay, both inland and offshore. They support 45kt winds max now.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree we've got loads of surface obs that we can use which only justifies 45kts but the flight level winds are rising and the convection does seem to be wrapping around the center feature, if that happens should help to tighten up the center a little.

[hiflyer]

Yep, you saw what I saw in that radar. That means I wasn't imagining things.

Using Surface Velocity display in GRLevel3 to watch that area....looks fairly quiet and the center clearing out of spurious returns and becoming more circular.....

Think I'm getting the infamous Fay Headache.....

[Sabanic]

Doesn't she almost seem to be drifting southward ever so slowly now?

[SoupBone]

I just want a quick, dirty and honest answer. Why is everyone so quick to discount all the models pointing her to the gulf? The NHC seems to be doing the same. With my non experienced eyes I just don't understand.

Because all the models aren't bringing Fay into the Gulf.

But aren't some of them removed from this chart? I know I saw quite a few still bringing her there. I'm not attacking just trying to figure it out.

[cpdaman]

with that slight shift north and a bit more east on the VDM the water temperatures run about 3 degrees warmer out there (fringes of gulf stream) than they were where she was a few hours ago.

[SoupBone]

I just want a quick, dirty and honest answer. Why is everyone so quick to discount all the models pointing her to the gulf? The NHC seems to be doing the same. With my non experienced eyes I just don't understand.

My guess is they are also looking more closely at the synoptics involved and including that in the analysis and it doesn't add up to Fay inthe GOM.

Also what do you mean "All of the models pointing her to the Gulf."? Are you talking about the few that do that(last model plot I saw only had a few with her in the GOM)?

I wasn't saying ALL the models do. That was poorly worded. I meant to ask why are the ones that do bring her into the gulf being discounted.

[cpdaman]

With such a large, open center it'll take longer to consolidate and organize. And with just a short time over the water, there may not be any time for strengthening beyond 5-10 mph. Watch out for those SFMR reports, they are not accurate in shallower water near shore where there are breaking waves. And the normal FL to surface wind conversion may not apply here. There are many surface obs around fay, both inland and offshore. They support 45kt winds max now.

yes but we know the offshore one's tend to be higher and that now that she is a bit north of her earlier position and thus a bit north of that cluster near canaveral, not to mention the convection on her NE side is not really near any bouys. I think looking at the handful of bouy obs on her south side or inland obs will short change her

[tolakram]

I just want a quick, dirty and honest answer. Why is everyone so quick to discount all the models pointing her to the gulf? The NHC seems to be doing the same. With my non experienced eyes I just don't understand.

My guess is they are also looking more closely at the synoptics involved and including that in the analysis and it doesn't add up to Fay inthe GOM.

Also what do you mean "All of the models pointing her to the Gulf."? Are you talking about the few that do that(last model plot I saw only had a few with her in the GOM)?

I wasn't saying ALL the models do. That was poorly worded. I meant to ask why are the ones that do bring her into the gulf being discounted.

Most likely because they have a proven track record of being completely unreliable. The NAM group is a good example.

[KWT]

Well the center palcement indeed does suggest this may just about get into the warmer waters if it can just shave a little more off the longitude it will do a world of good for this systems, pretty close to where the NHC expected it to be as well, now we have to just wait till the westerly turn begins...

Also given the center is a little further offshore then we expected, that probably explains why its starting to tighten up again a little.

[cpdaman]

this further emphasizes fay's tale of two sides

you can see her getting stretched out again (w-e) and her right side is pulling some deep convection closer to center while her left side ,well look

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

is the high building in from the NW causing more east shear on her west side first?

what synoptic feature is obliterating and pushing her west side out. shear and dry air?

lets see if she can wrap those NE bands to her west , just a bit

[tolakram]

Convection starting to fill in on the west side.

Composite loop (looking at all levels)



Lets visit Daytona beach for a while.

[cpdaman]

upper level divergence appears to be very close to matching yesterday's silly numbers

and certainly increasing from 3 hours ago

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

making her east side go BOOM

[jaxfladude]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


How strong at most will Fay get before her final Fla. landfall(hopefully) if the NHC would classify as such, being so close to the coastline..?
I say 55 Knots.... 990mb

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFloridawx]

Mid Level Shear?



And there is some vorticity in the 200mb level to the SE of stretching into the Gulf.

this further emphasizes fay's tale of two sides

you can see her getting stretched out again (w-e) and her right side is pulling some deep convection closer to center while her left side ,well look

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

is the high building in from the NW causing more east shear on her west side first?

what synoptic feature is obliterating and pushing her west side out. shear and dry air?

lets see if she can wrap those NE bands to her west , just a bit

[chris_fit]

After a short break from rain.... looks like its building up again for Central/South Brevard County

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I spy with my little eye...

3 kite surfers on Treasure Island Beach! Their kites are whipping around like crazy!!

All I can think is, Tweedle-Dee, Tweedle-Dum, and Tweedle-D'OH!!!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, I certainly wish those in Florida who are underneath these torrential rains the very best. In previous years, we've seen more of the systems move right along, however, Fay, in 2008 has shown us how much rain a slow moving system can drop. These systems are WET! With that said, the rain is the issue..but, it seems that it is going to be the only issue, albeit it bad. If it would just move N and NW, this would be a real blessing for those in need. It looks like it will over the next couple of days and new directional patterns are revealing themselves pretty good now, so, those of us in the Central Gulf Coast region can feel much better than we may have last night. I started to see it this morning and it is even more verified as this day has progressed--unless nature proves us all wrong, it shouldn't get in the GOM. But, who knows with Fay?!?